2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2261 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:09 pm

18z GEFS have less support for the operational GFS’ Omar/Sebastian hybrid and more support for a WCar system like what the CMC is suggesting.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2262 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 22, 2021 12:30 am

18Z & 0Z GEFS/12Z EPS about as busy as anytime recently late in their runs in the W Caribbean. Early Nov climo supports this to some extent with still a respectable 13 geneses over the 10 day period 11/1-10 vs about the same rate during the 11 day period 10/21-31 of 15..so this area may bear watching, folks, as that's one every 13 years on average with the last one being Ida of 2009:

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2263 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 22, 2021 5:35 am

00z CMC shows a little more development with its SW Caribbean low, and its ensembles show it too. The GEFS continues to lean towards that system as well.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2264 Postby crownweather » Fri Oct 22, 2021 5:37 am

aspen wrote:00z CMC shows a little more development with its SW Caribbean low, and its ensembles show it too. The GEFS continues to lean towards that system as well.


00Z EPS is showing an uptick in members showing development right at the start of November in the western Caribbean.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2265 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 22, 2021 5:58 am

06z GFS has finally caved into the CMC and ensembles, and shows the wave becoming a system with an Eta/Iota-like track in the WCar instead of an Omar-like OTS system in the East Caribbean. It even has the same time frame as Eta.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2266 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Oct 22, 2021 6:01 am

aspen wrote:00z CMC shows a little more development with its SW Caribbean low, and its ensembles show it too. The GEFS continues to lean towards that system as well.

That’s originating from the same wave earlier GFS runs developed in the eastern Caribbean. Just with different synoptics - increased heights keeping the wave low until the western Caribbean. If troughing remains weak, could continue into Central America without doing much. So development hinges on hard to forecast specifics. Still very far out.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2267 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 22, 2021 6:03 am

6z GFS sends the Caribbean system to Nicaragua, just like Eta & Iota did last year
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2268 Postby kevin » Fri Oct 22, 2021 6:20 am

06z GFS:

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2269 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Oct 22, 2021 6:38 am

Considering how troughiness has been a dominant player in this season compared to, say, 2020, I think if something were to develop in the WCAR it would more than likely lift northward like Elsa or Ida rather than bury itself in C America like Eta or Iota. Just a personal thought though
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2270 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 22, 2021 10:27 am

Maybe one last hurrah? :roll:

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2271 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 22, 2021 10:44 am

Combo of the tropical wave over the Atlantic and then the stalling front after it pushes through here would be catalyst. But again we’ll see
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2272 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Oct 22, 2021 11:43 am

The 12z GFS has even stronger ridging burying the wave into South America, no development. This is similar to what the Euro has been showing all along. Just one run but that’s what it shows.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2273 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 22, 2021 12:01 pm

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2274 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Oct 22, 2021 12:12 pm

Oh of course the GFS did that, although I will say given its pretty decent consistency in consecutive runs prior to this that had that sort of system, I honestly do not believe that this 12z run is well representative of what will likely pan out in the future.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2275 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Oct 22, 2021 12:24 pm


I thought ‘phantom’ described model storms with no associated impulse other than “mystery vorticity”? Not the case here, wave is in the central Atlantic:

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Last edited by Ubuntwo on Fri Oct 22, 2021 2:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2276 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Oct 22, 2021 12:53 pm

I wouldn't dismiss it as a phantom just yet when EPS and CMC have also been showing genesis down there.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2277 Postby blp » Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:02 pm



Yeah the OPS was always suspect. The GEFS looks like the real deal though very close to the CMC and last night Euro. This is going to be more of a W. Carribean system. I expect the 18z Ops to bring something back but closer to GEFS.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2278 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:13 pm

Also keep in mind that the GEFS has a tendency (for reasons I am not sure about) to show a system in consecutive runs, drop it, and then resurrect it when the time period gets closer.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2279 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:38 pm

GEFS ensembles still show an Eta-like storm at the same time frame as last run, and while the GEPS (CMC) ensembles also show a WCar system, it isn’t until a day or two later.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2280 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:45 pm

As of now, the GEFS and ECENS ensembles have settled on a compromise in terms of deep tropics activity: they both agree on a Western Caribbean storm (a la Beta (2005) et Eta (2020)), and they both, bizarrely, agree on an MDR system (a la rien). In terms of the subtropics, the GEFS is catching a subtropical system forming around October 27, but the ECENS is not. The Western Caribbean and subtropics model storms are reasonable given the time of year; however, I have difficulty wrapping my head around the MDR storm. Normally, I would say the part of the MDR east of 35 W is closed November, but the ensembles keep latching onto this system: is there something they are seeing that I am not seeing?
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