2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Ubuntwo]

~45% of 12z Euro ensemble members develop in the Caribbean. Developing members are progressing in lead time well. I notice the TCs are weighted even further SW than past runs. Increasing model convergence?

Some members also cross the wave over and develop something weak in the EPAC.

[AutoPenalti]

Either consolidation or hints of a MASSIVE ridge sending this to C. America.

[chaser1]

I'm just not sure either way LOL. GFS operational does often drop a system for one or more runs but if the signal remains strong, it'll commonly pop back up moving forward in time. That said, all the operational models have really underperformed in the last few years. Seems like it's not really getting better either.

For now though, it's the 12Z sayin' "Nope, do not pass Go.... go directly to jail (until rolling doubles)

[AlphaToOmega]

I'm just not sure either way LOL. GFS operational does often drop a system for one or more runs but if the signal remains strong, it'll commonly pop back up moving forward in time. That said, all the operational models have really underperformed in the last few years. Seems like it's not really getting better either.

For now though, it's the 12Z sayin' "Nope, do not pass Go.... go directly to jail (until rolling doubles)

That is why you look at ensembles.

[wxman57]

The 12Z GFS & EC solutions appear to be more likely - no development.

[Category5Kaiju]

The 12Z GFS & EC solutions appear to be more likely - no development.

Could I ask by what you mean by them being more "likely?"

[chaser1]

I'm just not sure either way LOL. GFS operational does often drop a system for one or more runs but if the signal remains strong, it'll commonly pop back up moving forward in time. That said, all the operational models have really underperformed in the last few years. Seems like it's not really getting better either.

For now though, it's the 12Z sayin' "Nope, do not pass Go.... go directly to jail (until rolling doubles)

That is why you look at ensembles.

Absolutely correct. Beyond that, and for the present moment..... the Operational outputs remain "for entertainment purposes only".

[CyclonicFury]

The 12Z GFS & EC solutions appear to be more likely - no development.

The 12Z ECMWF did show a broad low in the SW Caribbean at the end of the run. That model has not been very good at forecasting Caribbean genesis lately in the long range, either. GEFS and EPS also show some members with development, with the GEFS a bit more bullish than the EPS.

[CyclonicFury]

I feel like it's worth mentioning what the ECMWF operational showed for what would eventually become Eta and Iota last year 10 days out:

Eta


Iota


And here's today's 12z ECMWF operational run:


Looks nearly identical. I don't expect a high-end Category 4 obviously at this time, but it proves that the ECMWF does not do too well in forecasting Caribbean genesis, aside from a slight signal of an area of vorticity. The ECMWF hasn't done that so far this month until now, and the system also has support from the GEFS and the CMC, suggesting that this may not be a typical phantom.

[aspen]

The wave is further north on the 18z GFS and is spinning just north of South America by 240hr.

[abajan]

Maybe one last hurrah?

https://i.postimg.cc/mDzKQMZg/0-A870-FE4-DD2-C-46-AC-BAC8-C67-CACD75-F84.jpg

Your comment is mentioned in Mark Sudduth's latest video



Link: https://youtu.be/uBSAXzTAhVc

[Category5Kaiju]

And once again, after a one-run blip the GFS is back showing the early November WCAR system. Imho it's looking more and more likely that there's evidence that this isn't a phantom and that something is going to get going down there early next month.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS 240-384 hours:

[Ubuntwo]

Unlike the 12z troughing is properly positioned to lift the system north this run. Difficult to predict pattern, at a high lead time... watch ensembles above all else

[AlphaToOmega]

And once again, after a one-run blip the GFS is back showing the early November WCAR system. Imho it's looking more and more likely that there's evidence that this isn't a phantom and that something is going to get going down there early next month.

Its track is probably just happy hour BS, but it will certainly give Floridians a nice scare

[abajan]

And once again, after a one-run blip the GFS is back showing the early November WCAR system. Imho it's looking more and more likely that there's evidence that this isn't a phantom and that something is going to get going down there early next month.

FWIW the 12z CMC shows what appears to be cyclogenesis east of southern Nicaragua at Hour 240.

[toad strangler]

And once again, after a one-run blip the GFS is back showing the early November WCAR system. Imho it's looking more and more likely that there's evidence that this isn't a phantom and that something is going to get going down there early next month.

Its track is probably just happy hour BS, but it will certainly give Floridians a nice scare

A scare? nah

[GeneratorPower]

I’m scared. Hold me.

[wxman57]

I don't believe the 18Z GFS for a split second. It's been doing things like this around the world all season. The environment doesn't look very favorable in the western Caribbean when it's developing that hurricane. It's always at the end of the run, too.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS 18z: Shiver me timbers...