2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Teban54]

GFS seems to have the same MDR storm around +150 as the 12z Euro. As other people rightfully said earlier in this thread it's still way too soon to say something about this AOI with any real value, but at the very least it's a noteworthy development in the models. I guess I'll wait until it at least enters the +90 region before I really pay a lot of attention to it.

Follow-up to this, happy hour GFS lives up to its name.

https://i.imgur.com/vurVudk.png

At least this time it's not just the Euro! /s

Seriously though, I don't remember the operational GFS ever making 95L this strong at a low latitude when Euro was consistent with a MDR major run to run (though GEFS had some strong members). IIRC GFS was also pretty bearish with 93L. This is more likely than not a one-off thing, though.

[Category5Kaiju]

If the most recent GFS were to verify, then all this talk of this September being inactive and underperforming will bust tremendously. Just sayin'.

[IcyTundra]

Last week of September should be more favorable than it is right now wouldn't surprise me if the GFS is right about two more storms forming in the MDR in the last days of September.

[otowntiger]

GFS seems to have the same MDR storm around +150 as the 12z Euro. As other people rightfully said earlier in this thread it's still way too soon to say something about this AOI with any real value, but at the very least it's a noteworthy development in the models. I guess I'll wait until it at least enters the +90 region before I really pay a lot of attention to it.

Follow-up to this, happy hour GFS lives up to its name.

https://i.imgur.com/vurVudk.png

I’m sure it will be very different on the very next run.

[aspen]

The 12z ICON is a full-on fish party by next weekend — ex-Odette, 95L/Rose, 97L/Peter, and another MDR system are all active at that time.

[Category5Kaiju]

The 12z ICON is a full-on fish party by next weekend — ex-Odette, 95L/Rose, 97L/Peter, and another MDR system are all active at that time.

That new MDR system could use all of its fish power to boost the ACE of the Atlantic and satisfy those who are worried about ACE

[Ubuntwo]

GFS has an active late September - crossing into October. Putting the Kelvin wave to work.

[psyclone]

any low near the western tip of Cuba in late sept/early october will wake everyone up

[cajungal]

any low near the western tip of Cuba in late sept/early october will wake everyone up

After Ida looking at that is already giving me severe anxiety

[aspen]

Another MDR storm begins forming by Wednesday afternoon on the 18z GFS, and it also appears on the 18z ICON.

[aspen]

All of the global models are now showing another MDR system developing late this week or the weekend. It should probably be on the TWO soon.

[wxman57]

The MDR has been quite hostile all season, particularly the western part east of the Caribbean. Like 2020, the eastern MDR has allowed for some significant development (Larry). Models indicate the first real cold front of the season arriving this week, after which time the Gulf may be dominated by strong westerly wind shear for quite a while. This is quite different from last season. The Gulf may be closing for business soon, with the exception of the SE Gulf & Florida late season.

High shear from later this week through Oct. 5th in the latest GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021091906/gfs_shear_atl_65.png

[Category5Kaiju]

The MDR has been quite hostile all season, particularly the western part east of the Caribbean. Like 2020, the eastern MDR has allowed for some significant development (Larry). Models indicate the first real cold front of the season arriving this week, after which time the Gulf may be dominated by strong westerly wind shear for quite a while. This is quite different from last season. The Gulf may be closing for business soon, with the exception of the SE Gulf & Florida late season.

High shear from later this week through Oct. 5th in the latest GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021091906/gfs_shear_atl_65.png

Interestingly enough, the GFS also shows below average shear in the equatorial EPAC. During a La Nina? I find that very strange personally.

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS's most recent run should raise eyebrows.

Classic late September WCAR system. Takes it into Florida.

[SFLcane]

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.postimg.cc/5t2tR1xC/59314731-5-E18-45-A8-96-D6-CDCAC45-B7915.gif

Definitely keeping an eye on that. Looks like late September/early October is going to be quite threatening should that actually happen.

[SFLcane]

That east system is nonsense ain’t nothing make it that far west. The Caribbean well that’s something to keep an eye on. Well see if signal there a week from now.

[psyclone]

A tortuga to treasure coast track would be oh so climo. WX Tiger said a 1 in 3 shot of a huurricane risk to FL in October. Might be more like a 1 in 2 coin toss. Things might get interesting quickly.

[SFLcane]

A tortuga to treasure coast track would be oh so climo. WX Tiger said a 1 in 3 shot of a huurricane risk to FL in October. Might be more like a 1 in 2 coin toss. Things might get interesting quickly.

GFS ensemble always shows a few things like that this time of year. It's good enough now that if it's a real signal it'll be a lot more obvious and a lot further up in time.

[ChrisH-UK]

https://i.postimg.cc/5t2tR1xC/59314731-5-E18-45-A8-96-D6-CDCAC45-B7915.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/4NHVW68g/A1-A6-EE58-D392-451-D-9990-FD29-F6-CFE276.png

I noticed earlier that there is a small area of rotation near Jamaica, that correlates to that first depression that hits Florida. Going to have to keep an eye on it.