2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[kevin]

GFS....please, cease. Please be nice to us. Thank you.

Maybe this will get all the Floridians back on board
https://i.ibb.co/rdLCKv8/gfs-mslp-wind-atl-fh144-384.gif

I know that the chance of such a run actually verifying is probably <0.001%, but just an interesting tidbit: only 2 storms since 1851 have made landfall in Florida at hurricane strength in November or beyond. One is a hurricane in 1935, which made landfall near Miami Beach as a 973mb/85kt cat 2. The other one is Kate, which made landfall as a 967mb/85kt cat 2 in Bay County in 1985. A MH in that area in November that didn't originate in the WCar would be unprecedented.

[kevin]

Third time in a row that GFS shows a TC forming near Puerto Rico on the 28th/29th of October. TC formation is at +180 in the latest run. This one consolidates a bit further north than 00z, which results in a faster OTS track but despite that the TC still peaks at 954 mbar MH.

[wxman57]

Third time in a row that GFS shows a TC forming near Puerto Rico on the 28th/29th of October. TC formation is at +180 in the latest run. This one consolidates a bit further north than 00z, which results in a faster OTS track but despite that the TC still peaks at 954 mbar MH.

https://imgur.com/YBTQl6x

Looks like a modelcane, to me. GFS also has very strong wind shear across the region at that time. Euro looks more realistic - strong cold front north of the Caribbean with a frontal low forming on the front north of the islands.

[Blown Away]

Third time in a row that GFS shows a TC forming near Puerto Rico on the 28th/29th of October. TC formation is at +180 in the latest run. This one consolidates a bit further north than 00z, which results in a faster OTS track but despite that the TC still peaks at 954 mbar MH.

https://imgur.com/YBTQl6x

Looks like a modelcane, to me. GFS also has very strong wind shear across the region at that time. Euro looks more realistic - strong cold front north of the Caribbean with a frontal low forming on the front north of the islands.

GFS usually goes big with it's modelcanes and the 06Z didn't disappoint...

[aspen]

06z GEFS ensembles are by far the most active they’ve ever been this month. Yes, most of the activity is in the long range, but it’s never been this active for the other modeled systems that failed. I wouldn’t count the season as over just yet.

[kevin]

Yes wxman I agree with you that the particular 06z operational run storm track looks very modelcane-like, but on the other hand the GFS ensemble is very active. Like more active than it has been in a month or so. So while that specific track might not verify, I think there's a pretty good chance that something will form at some point in the Caribbean during the next 2 weeks. On the other hand most activity is still in the long range so for the coming days it's of no concern anyways.

[Category5Kaiju]

Just a note but the recent GEFS ensembles are extremely bullish on something big forming in the Caribbean by month’s end or early November and traveling anywhere toward Cuba to Puerto Rico. I personally think given the model ensemble consistency and persistency in this idea of this sort of system that this season is likely not over yet and that much like the July lull we had the October lull, albeit temporary.

[AutoPenalti]

It's far out in time but I would assume that anything that gets going would most likely be way E of SFL.

[chaser1]

I'd actually be more apt to look toward the south and west. Same time frame suggesting a E.PAC low forming and potentially moving north seems a more reasonable solution. At this far away period in time, that same disturbance could just as easily develop in the BOC or far W. Caribbean as well. Until we're about 144 hr's out, the operational models just don't matter. Let's see if the ensembles begin showing any consistency or greater focus on any any of those areas.

[Spacecoast]

0z Global ECMF ensembles:
N. Atl shows some activity...

EPAC shows more activity..

WPAC shows even more activity...

[aspen]

The NE Caribbean system appears once again this run. Looking at the UL environment, it’ll either be sheared to death or baroclinically enhanced once entering the open Atlantic.

[Category5Kaiju]

It's interesting to see how many of the model runs show either a NE or E moving system or a system that literally meanders in the ECAR before going N...all while intensifying. Something tells me that we may potentially be in for tracking a very weirdly moving but nevetheless impactful system in the next two weeks or so.

[skyline385]

It's interesting to see how many of the model runs show either a NE or E moving system or a system that literally meanders in the ECAR before going N...all while intensifying. Something tells me that we may potentially be in for tracking a very weirdly moving but nevetheless impactful system in the next two weeks or so.

The path does make sense when you consider how low some of these fronts are dropping. Most of the ensemble members are from troughs and not resulting from a typical Atlantic MDR wave or a CAG.

[Hammy]

Canadian coming in with a tropical storm near Africa and formative low in the Caribbean near the end of the run, this seems more believable than anything the GFS is putting out.

[Europa non è lontana]

12z GFS has what appears to be a subtropical or tropical cyclone in the Ionian Sea 108h out. Sea surface temperatures are around 22-23C in the region.



Other models have picked up on the feature, but only a few develop it (some keep as elongated low pressure area). It's something to keep an eye out for, anyway.

[Hammy]

12z GFS has what appears to be a subtropical or tropical cyclone in the Ionian Sea 108h out. Sea surface temperatures are around 22-23C in the region.

https://i.imgur.com/MqHpdsv.png

Other models have picked up on the feature, but only a few develop it (some keep as elongated low pressure area). It's something to keep an eye out for, anyway.

It would be ironic if the Mediterranean ends up getting a tropical cyclone in October but the Atlantic doesn't, and this is in a close enough timeframe that it's really not out of the question.

[Ubuntwo]

~35% of Euro ensemble members have development through day 15. Slightly lower than the past few runs, but that reduction is coming from the subtropics/frontal lows. Several hurricanes recurving from the Caribbean.

[abajan]

Link: https://youtu.be/paW5VDEb400

[aspen]

Canadian coming in with a tropical storm near Africa and formative low in the Caribbean near the end of the run, this seems more believable than anything the GFS is putting out.

https://i.imgur.com/aIxB81n.png

The GEFS ensembles have supported the possibility of a system in the western half of the Caribbean as well as one in the eastern half like the operational shows. Only time will tell which one, if either, would verify.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

12z GFS has what appears to be a subtropical or tropical cyclone in the Ionian Sea 108h out. Sea surface temperatures are around 22-23C in the region.

https://i.imgur.com/MqHpdsv.png

Other models have picked up on the feature, but only a few develop it (some keep as elongated low pressure area). It's something to keep an eye out for, anyway.

The GFS initially predicts subtropical transition on this run, but later it will become fully tropical. And yes, there is a good agreement among the models that the precursor low pressure area will be develop near Tunisia at the weekend, and it will be blocked by a widespread anticyclonic belt across West, Central and East Europe. But thanks of this some models develop another/secondary low(s) which interact with the original one, and also the motion of the original cyclone is quite uncertain now.



However, the GFS had some runs earlier too that showed tropical transition, the best was this yesterday's 06Z run with a strong tropical storm near the western parts of Greece. And also there was one or two runs of the German ICON model which develop the cyclone some days ago.