2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[aspen]

FWIW, the 12z ICON shows the wave behind 95L coming off at a similarly low latitude, instead of further north around Cape Verde like the Euro/EPS has been forecasting for days. This would significantly raise its development odds if this were to verify.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/ECMWF/status/1437438194870534153

[aspen]

The most recent GFS, Euro, and ICON runs are coming into agreement about another rather low-latitude wave emerging off of Africa in 4-6 days. The majority of AEW-based systems this year have developed from low latitude waves, either in the MDR (Elsa, Grace, Larry) or further west (Fred, Ida). All higher latitude waves marked for development have failed. The trend for this wave to be south of the Cape Verde islands instead of at the same latitude boosts its chances of becoming a TC, either Peter or Rosa depending on what the Bahamas AOI does.

[GeneratorPower]

00z GFS rolling

[Hammy]

We're getting to a 2013/2019 point with the MDR and the models where the models keep showing storm after storm after storm in the MDR, only to completely drop development once the wave actually exits.

[AlphaToOmega]

We're getting to a 2013/2019 point with the MDR and the models where the models keep showing storm after storm after storm in the MDR, only to completely drop development once the wave actually exits.

Probably just a fluke, ensembles are still enthused.
Plus, GFS and ICON still develop the MDR wave monitored by the NHC in the MDR.

[aspen]

00z GFS is liking the wave behind 95L some more.

[Hammy]

We're getting to a 2013/2019 point with the MDR and the models where the models keep showing storm after storm after storm in the MDR, only to completely drop development once the wave actually exits.

Probably just a fluke, ensembles are still enthused.
Plus, GFS and ICON still develop the MDR wave monitored by the NHC in the MDR.

Honestly the GFS has been hard to trust this year. Things have failed when it showed development, while things have developed when it's showed nothing.

[AlphaToOmega]

We're getting to a 2013/2019 point with the MDR and the models where the models keep showing storm after storm after storm in the MDR, only to completely drop development once the wave actually exits.

Probably just a fluke, ensembles are still enthused.
Plus, GFS and ICON still develop the MDR wave monitored by the NHC in the MDR.

Honestly the GFS has been hard to trust this year. Things have failed when it showed development, while things have developed when it's showed nothing.

Still does not make sense why operational models would back off while ensembles still show development

Invest 93L made conditions conducive for Invest 95L

[tolakram]

We're back to knowing if something will develop less than 5 days before it does. My best guess is that conditions are not ideal in the eastern Atlantic and the models really struggle to determine if anything can overcome those conditions. One run, yes, next run no.

[aspen]

While the Euro is very bearish with 95L, it's showing 96L and a wave behind 95L developing. Here are the tracks it shows for all three disturbances, over the CDAS SST map:

96L stalls over the Gulf Steam, while the 2nd wave gets into the patch of 27-28C SSTs east of Larry's cold wake.

[AlphaToOmega]

While the Euro is very bearish with 95L, it's showing 96L and a wave behind 95L developing. Here are the tracks it shows for all three disturbances, over the CDAS SST map:
https://i.imgur.com/1G9KkrN.png
96L stalls over the Gulf Steam, while the 2nd wave gets into the patch of 27-28C SSTs east of Larry's cold wake.

The ECMWF is known to have a northward bias with African Easterly Waves.

[SFLcane]

CV season shutting down soon. Time to look closer to home in a few weeks.

Slop and fish Next 1-3 weeks potentially

[toad strangler]

we'll see but LOL

 http://twitter.com/5436jag/status/1437828814940278784

[aspen]

we'll see but LOL

http://twitter.com/5436jag/status/1437828814940278784?s=20

What storm was that?

[cycloneye]

we'll see but LOL

http://twitter.com/5436jag/status/1437828814940278784?s=20

What storm was that?

Chris 2006.

[SoupBone]

we'll see but LOL

http://twitter.com/5436jag/status/1437828814940278784?s=20

I'd love to watch this happen. I don't recall this happening.

[Category5Kaiju]

we'll see but LOL

http://twitter.com/5436jag/status/1437828814940278784?s=20

That was a solid El Nino year though with some phenomenal shear (strongest storms that year only became a Cat 3), so honestly not surprised that happened.

[SouthFLTropics]

CV season shutting down soon. Time to look closer to home in a few weeks.

Slop and fish Next 1-3 weeks potentially

The farther we get into September the more I am inclined to agree with you. Just hard to get a hit from something from the east late in the season. Matthew is probably the closest I can recall and it wasn't truly from the east even though it started there. Considering how much has come out of the Caribbean and GOM so far this year, I'm very concerned heading into October. This year has been the quietest I can recall here in South Florida as far as threats go, modeled or otherwise. I hope that luck doesn't run out next month.

[Astromanía]

Maybe this is the type of year where we should watch more the Gulf and the Caribbean rather than the MDR