2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[AutoPenalti]

The strongest run yet by GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/8jzreBW.gif

Wow, and that's at 180hr...

[HurricaneFrances04]

Interesting track for May. I'd normally think these early/pre-season Gulf storms just go northeast.

[AnnularCane]

So much for the "one and done model run" like I originally thought it would be. Guess this one has a little more staying power. Nevertheless, I am still skeptical.

[Cpv17]

Does it even have any ensemble support?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

So far only the GFS has really given a noteworthy signal for possible gulf development next week. With that being said, however, the model has performed surprisingly well with predicting genesis so far this year - it latched on to Surigae, Andres and now Tauktae before the others. It's easy to dismiss it as a ghost storm but I'd say it's worth paying attention to, especially when you consider the overall synoptics appear to be supportive of such a development:

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1393249671603228673

[TampaFl]

Mmmmm tropics waking up early again this year? We could really use the rain here in West Central FL.

490
FXUS62 KTBW 150754
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
354 AM EDT Sat May 15 2021

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure has settled in over much of the eastern half of the
United States. This has brought dry air over the area with only a
few showers possible in the interior parts of southwest Florida
today and tomorrow. As the high pressure pushes closer to us and
builds today we will notice an increase in winds late this
afternoon through the evening hours with some spots gusting up to
20 mph.

As we start off next week high pressure will stay in control with
humidity and afternoon shower chances increasing day to day. Eyes
will already start to turn to the tropics as we go into Friday and
next weekend. Both the Euro and and GFS is showing a weak trough
forming near Florida and heading into the Gulf. The GFS is more
bullish with the moisture and showers activity over Florida while
the EURO is showing a weaker quick moving and drier trough.
Hopefully we will get a clearer picture as we get a little closer
to Friday and next weekend.

[chaser1]

The strongest run yet by GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/8jzreBW.gif

Wow, and that's at 180hr...

6Z GFS stronger run yet with a 1001 mb low drifting from Andros Island to Grand Bahama, and then drifting southwest toward Palm Beach before getting kicked out to the northeast. Details right now are irrelevant but the GFS is trying to sniff out something. Let's see if the 12Z and later runs this weekend offer continuity.

[tolakram]

Gone in the 18Z.

[Iceresistance]

Gone in the 18Z.

I do want to mention that it tries to spin up in the Caribbean & into the Bay of Campeche . . .

[cycloneye]

Embarrassment for this guy.

 https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1393660630389989380

[Iceresistance]

Embarrassment for this guy.

https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1393660630389989380

What I would do is: "Th(is)e (GFS) model is saying this could happen in the next few days, this will change as the models start to get the better agreement on the situation . . . & don't use this model to make decisions!"

But there are situations where something can go crazy . . .

[toad strangler]

Operational GFS long range now has entered the start of the Atlantic Basin reg season.

[JetFuel_SE]

Operational GFS long range now has entered the start of the Atlantic Basin reg season.

Too bad it's now doing this.

[TampaMike3]

The models the past few days have been hinting of a high level of precipitation around CA, likely due to the gyre in the region. I’ve been waiting for the long range models to start developing what I believed the past few days were hinting at and the 12z does just that.

I think this has a high chance of developing and should be something to watch for come the beginning of the hurricane season.

[CyclonicFury]

The GFS has a tendency to have W Caribbean genesis false alarms at this time of year. However, the pattern does look favorable for CAG development in early-mid June, so we'll see if anything starts to show up. The ECMWF tends to do better at forecasting CAG genesis than the GFS, though last year it missed quite a few storms.

[aspen]

Operational GFS long range now has entered the start of the Atlantic Basin reg season.

Too bad it's now doing this.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/736018608366551111/843893516794855505/gfs_z850_vort_atl_fh54-270.gif

The GFS has been showing the possibility of something in the mid northern Atlantic for several days now. This is the strongest run so far, with a peak of 991 mbar in 162 hr. The precursor to this appears as early as Thursday, so it’ll probably be something we’ll have to keep an eye on for possible pre-season development.

Today’s 12z run also shows a TS forming from a CAG at the end of the run, although it’s almost certainly just long-range model bias spawning a phantom, even though the potential for a CAG system in the first half of June is there as CyclonicFury said.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

This little (S)TS system spawned from a cutoff low has been appearing off-and-on from run-to-run on the GFS. I'd imagine the NHC probably wants more model support before labeling it, however.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

This little (S)TS system spawned from a cutoff low has been appearing off-and-on from run-to-run on the GFS. I'd imagine the NHC probably wants more model support before labeling it, however.
https://i.ibb.co/tq5KCnD/50688481-f554-4ee6-884a-16398aec1860.gif

I spoke too soon

[JW-_-]

Very L/R but yeah its sniffing.

[BobHarlem]

GFS in around 12 days showing this in the gulf, it's the east pacific system crossing over after nearing Mexico. Nothing else showing this, but interesting none the less.