2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[toad strangler]

Just stuff this far out but nonetheless

[SouthFLTropics]

Yeah, the exact timing and strength may not be correct. Regardless, I feel like we are watching previews for coming attractions for next month.

[aspen]

Um…,

https://i.postimg.cc/L8rXQK7m/DE9-C67-D5-FAB0-4-E47-970-D-59243-BE714-C9.gif

If the cutoff low doesn’t develop, that would be Wanda — an October WCar major just like the first W storm.

[SouthFLTropics]

Whew...Close call!!! Just skims the coast and rides the Gulf Stream on the way out. For Floridian's it's time to refocus on the Caribbean. I think we are going to see many more runs like this in the coming days and weeks.

[SFLcane]

[Ubuntwo]

Two weeks out, but someone's gotta post it.

[Iceresistance]

Whew...Close call!!! Just skims the coast and rides the Gulf Stream on the way out. For Floridian's it's time to refocus on the Caribbean. I think we are going to see many more runs like this in the coming days and weeks.

It's a Matthew-type storm: Misses Florida to the East & Makes Landfall in South Carolina . . .

[IcyTundra]

Whew...Close call!!! Just skims the coast and rides the Gulf Stream on the way out. For Floridian's it's time to refocus on the Caribbean. I think we are going to see many more runs like this in the coming days and weeks.

Hooks to the west and hits SC.

[SFLcane]

Whew...Close call!!! Just skims the coast and rides the Gulf Stream on the way out. For Floridian's it's time to refocus on the Caribbean. I think we are going to see many more runs like this in the coming days and weeks.

No close call there hurricane force winds across Dade and Broward easily.

[SouthFLTropics]

Irene 1999 would be an excellent analog storm for this modeled run. Albeit Irene was a hair west and came over South Florida.

[toad strangler]

The one and only thing I take from this 18z GFS run is that it's just a long range signal for now.

THAT'S IT

[SFLcane]

The pattern is there as I mentioned earlier today either Cuba or SFL. No ridging to safe Florida potentially this time around. NE tracks

[SFLcane]

The one and only thing I take from this 18z GFS run is that it's just a long range signal for now.

THAT'S IT

If you consider gfs now has development near 200hrs. Well see if the signal is there in a week. Don’t think this will be another gulf October.

[blp]

Nope, it can show it 10 runs in a row, I won't bite. Need to see another model onboard first. GFS has a long history of phantoms from the Columbian low.

[toad strangler]

Nope, it can show it 10 runs in a row, I won't bite. Need to see another model onboard first. GFS has a long history of phantoms from the Columbian low.

Of course. Relax. There isn't another model that reaches this far out Nobody is sounding an alarm.

[IcyTundra]

Nope, it can show it 10 runs in a row, I won't bite. Need to see another model onboard first. GFS has a long history of phantoms from the Columbian low.

GFS is the only model that goes out that far so it would take a while for other models to get to the time frame.

[aspen]

Nope, it can show it 10 runs in a row, I won't bite. Need to see another model onboard first. GFS has a long history of phantoms from the Columbian low.

GFS is the only model that goes out that far so it would take a while for other models to get to the time frame.

The precursor low starts forming at about 8-9 days out, so if this is a legit system, we should start seeing that low pop up on the CMC and Euro over the coming days.

[toad strangler]

The one and only thing I take from this 18z GFS run is that it's just a long range signal for now.

THAT'S IT

If you consider gfs now has development near 200hrs. Well see if the signal is there in a week. Don’t think this will be another gulf October.

GEFS shows next to nothing. No surprise. Onward.

[canes92]

I'll believe those models if they don't push off the dates.

[Teban54]

I remember last year GFS repeatedly showed precursors of Delta and Zeta hitting Florida in the long range, then corrected itself on a more western track.

Was it a ridge or something that prevented Delta, Zeta, Eta and Iota from early recurves? Seems like even though GFS will probably see many track changes before something actually forms, that exact scenario is unlikely to play out this year.