2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[toad strangler]

Maybe this is the type of year where we should watch more the Gulf and the Caribbean rather than the MDR

That's October. It's still the season to look EAST even if just about done for landfall potential in the western basin.

[Iceresistance]

What is with the 12z GFS?

[Hammy]

What is with the 12z GFS?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_fh108-384.gif

And now the 18z goes full 2013. There's been horrible consistency this year from run to run.

[Hammy]

I recall hearing that the 5G signal was interfering with the water vapor signal and thus impacting model accuracy, I wonder if this explains why the models have done so poorly over the open Atlantic this year while still being fairly accurate in the Gulf and Caribbean, where there is more data from balloons, air craft, and other non-satellite based sources.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS looks to spin up some trouble in the GOM long range into early October.

[Hurricaneman]

18z GFS looks to spin up some trouble in the GOM long range into early October.

https://i.imgur.com/T5nLLFj.gif

Yep, may be the first of many runs showing a western Caribbean or GOM monsoon gyre system but by then it could be go time

[Category5Kaiju]

By the very end of this month, the GEFS ensembles just go full on Independence Day firework celebration-mode, with what looks to be a CV or MDR-born system or two and a West Atlantic system. Honestly at this point I'm more interested in what these could entail rather than 96L or 95L struggling.

[Stormybajan]

Interestingly, the 12z euro run today shows 95L 2.0 while GFS shows development of another MDR system in about 300 hours, cmc and icon shows squat in the MDR. Not believing anything until I see it off the coast of Africa

[Category5Kaiju]

Interestingly, the 12z euro run today shows 95L 2.0 while GFS shows development of another MDR system in about 300 hours, cmc and icon shows squat in the MDR. Not believing anything until I see it off the coast of Africa

Imagine if we somehow got a bona fide, strong CV storm that moves west into the islands...in the last several days of this month. Just imagine how amazed many of us would be if that were to actually happen, as there's a general consensus that getting such kinds of storms that late is super rare

[aspen]

Interestingly, the 12z euro run today shows 95L 2.0 while GFS shows development of another MDR system in about 300 hours, cmc and icon shows squat in the MDR. Not believing anything until I see it off the coast of Africa

Imagine if we somehow got a bona fide, strong CV storm that moves west into the islands...in the last several days of this month. Just imagine how amazed many of us would be if that were to actually happen, as there's a general consensus that getting such kinds of storms that late is super rare

Something like Matthew isn’t impossible: a storm forms in the very far western MDR, moves into the Caribbean, and then goes bonkers. But a bona-fide long tracker? That’s impossible at this point, thanks to the worsening MJO phase and how much trouble 95L has had.

[kevin]

12z Euro has a possibly dangerous storm forming from the AOI behind 95L, but for now it's still at +144/+168 before forming so plenty of time for things to change. However, the Euro is usually quite conservative with TC genesis so if this system remains in the Euro runs for a few more cycles I'd say we should definitely pay attention to it.

[CyclonicFury]

12z Euro has a possibly dangerous storm forming from the AOI behind 95L, but for now it's still at +144/+168 before forming so plenty of time for things to change. However, the Euro is usually quite conservative with TC genesis so if this system remains in the Euro runs for a few more cycles I'd say we should definitely pay attention to it.

https://imgur.com/mufa4PZ

The Euro has not been too conservative with MDR genesis this year, if anything it has been too aggressive.

[kevin]

12z Euro has a possibly dangerous storm forming from the AOI behind 95L, but for now it's still at +144/+168 before forming so plenty of time for things to change. However, the Euro is usually quite conservative with TC genesis so if this system remains in the Euro runs for a few more cycles I'd say we should definitely pay attention to it.

https://imgur.com/mufa4PZ

The Euro has not been too conservative with MDR genesis this year, if anything it has been too aggressive.

Yeah now that I think of it you're right. I guess I'm still in the 2020 mindset when the Euro kept showing open waves and then in reality a storm would form the next day .

[GeneratorPower]

Interestingly, the 12z euro run today shows 95L 2.0 while GFS shows development of another MDR system in about 300 hours, cmc and icon shows squat in the MDR. Not believing anything until I see it off the coast of Africa

Imagine if we somehow got a bona fide, strong CV storm that moves west into the islands...in the last several days of this month. Just imagine how amazed many of us would be if that were to actually happen, as there's a general consensus that getting such kinds of storms that late is super rare

Something like Matthew isn’t impossible: a storm forms in the very far western MDR, moves into the Caribbean, and then goes bonkers. But a bona-fide long tracker? That’s impossible at this point, thanks to the worsening MJO phase and how much trouble 95L has had.

Tsk. Tsk. Tsk. Impossible? Them's fightin' words on this forum and most others. Let's say "less likely" or "unlikely". You'll get in lotsa trouble in the tropics with "impossible".

[gatorcane]

12z Euro has a possibly dangerous storm forming from the AOI behind 95L, but for now it's still at +144/+168 before forming so plenty of time for things to change. However, the Euro is usually quite conservative with TC genesis so if this system remains in the Euro runs for a few more cycles I'd say we should definitely pay attention to it.

https://imgur.com/mufa4PZ

You mean the same Euro that had 95l as a major east of the LAs already? Let’s wait until we get closer. A hurricane into the islands is certainly possible climatologically in late September though.

[SFLcane]

Guess euro thinks it’s August.

[aspen]

A MDR TC is trying to develop by 150hr on the GFS. Looks like the precursor wave emerges at a very low latitude by late Sunday/early Monday.

The newest CFS run has an MDR long tracker form in the last few days of September or first days of October and tracks into the NW part of the basin.

[kevin]

GFS seems to have the same MDR storm around +150 as the 12z Euro. As other people rightfully said earlier in this thread it's still way too soon to say something about this AOI with any real value, but at the very least it's a noteworthy development in the models. I guess I'll wait until it at least enters the +90 region before I really pay a lot of attention to it.

[kevin]

GFS seems to have the same MDR storm around +150 as the 12z Euro. As other people rightfully said earlier in this thread it's still way too soon to say something about this AOI with any real value, but at the very least it's a noteworthy development in the models. I guess I'll wait until it at least enters the +90 region before I really pay a lot of attention to it.

Follow-up to this, happy hour GFS lives up to its name.

[IcyTundra]

GFS wants to bomb out a wave that comes off of Africa towards the end of September doesn't mean much yet, but the Euro is also onboard with development as well. Still pretty far out there and as we saw with 95L quick development isn't a guarantee even if the models are onboard with it.