2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1541 Postby mpic » Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:04 pm

When Jeff Lindner speaks, I snap to attention.
"Tropical cyclone formation likely in the west Gulf by late this weekend.

Residents along the TX coast should closely monitor forecasts over the weekend."
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1542 Postby Spacecoast » Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:22 pm

LarryWx wrote:


18Z EPS just out and is even more active as well as further W at 144 than the 12Z at 150

Yes, (accounting for the 12hr gap) I would say perhaps a lot faster, and a bit stronger...
18z:
Image

12z:
Image
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1543 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:27 pm

Spacecoast wrote:
LarryWx wrote:


18Z EPS just out and is even more active as well as further W at 144 than the 12Z at 150

Yes, (accounting for the 12hr gap) I would say perhaps a lot faster, and a bit stronger...
18z:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/WfpZt81/ecms.jpg [/url]

12z:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/x1khsV5/ecmr.jpg [/url]


Development right below the Cape Verde islands with decent intensification afterwards? Talk about hitting the ground running!
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1544 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:40 pm

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1545 Postby kevin » Sat Sep 11, 2021 2:54 am

Euro what are you doing :eek:? This is the 0/20 wave after 93L btw.

Image
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1546 Postby Kohlecane » Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:24 am

kevin wrote:Euro what are you doing :eek:? This is the 0/20 wave after 93L btw.

https://i.imgur.com/9TkJh0u.png

Yeah CrazyC83 said this in the 93L thread not long ago that the conditions might favor future 95L definitely will be keeping an eye on that, also interested to see the 06z runs, as I see the GFS still wants that SE coast/BAH storm within 96 hours, Little bit of ensemble support but not much, If this trend keeps up this will catch some folks off guard, and also make this the 3rd system to form in this area, Tech 90L never got upgraded. So Danny was the true sleeper that popped up, but in all honesty that was just rain showers for us in Beaufort.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1547 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:48 am

South FL will need to watch 95L. Those ensembles already don't look good. :double:
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1548 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:01 am

Ok folks, you can post the model runs for wave that will emerge Africa early next week at the thread.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=122259&p=2941579#p2941579
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1549 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:10 am

More models are showing development of the AEW over the Bahamas, which has the potential to threaten the entire east coast depending on its exact track. At the very least it’ll be an issue for the Bahamas, Georgia, and the Carolinas.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1550 Postby Kohlecane » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:10 am

aspen wrote:More models are showing development of the AEW over the Bahamas, which has the potential to threaten the entire east coast depending on its exact track. At the very least it’ll be an issue for the Bahamas, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

Image
Nice little pocket of OHC in that area as well + gulf stream and 28/29 sst, cant rule this out good environment, just curious if someone can point out exactly the origin of this(wv axis/ cut off trough etc..)
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1551 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:30 am

GFS, NAVGEM, UKMET are onto something spinning up in the Bahamas and moving up the East Coast

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1552 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:35 am

The potential Bahamas/SEUS system is probably worthy of an AOI now, because the GFS shows a good vorticity signal as early as Tuesday, and it’s coming from a currently active wave.

I’m concerned about this system the most in the near-term because I have relatives down in the Carolinas this week, and it’s possible the storm could ride up the entire east coast like on the 00z ICON run.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1553 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:47 am

Both the GEFS and ECENS ensembles show five or six more storms between now and September 20. That would bring us to seven or eight September storms this year, putting us on par with 2005. If there is activity between September 20 and October 1, it could put us on par with 2020. At this point, I would be surprised if we do not reach the auxiliary list.

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1554 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:54 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:Both the GEFS and ECENS ensembles show five or six more storms between now and September 20. That would bring us to seven or eight September storms this year, putting us on par with 2005. If there is activity between September 20 and October 1, it could put us on par with 2020. At this point, I would be surprised if we do not reach the auxiliary list.

https://i.postimg.cc/nhsC1N3p/climatologicalpeak.png
https://i.postimg.cc/zG932pQW/climatologicalpeak2.png

94L will probably end up as Nicholas. As NDG posted in the models thread, most of the global models have a developing circulation in the BoC by tomorrow morning, and the combination of very warm SSTs and a favorable UL environment makes this prone to a rapid spin-up. 93L will likely take more time, if it develops at all.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1555 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Sep 11, 2021 8:06 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:Both the GEFS and ECENS ensembles show five or six more storms between now and September 20. That would bring us to seven or eight September storms this year, putting us on par with 2005. If there is activity between September 20 and October 1, it could put us on par with 2020. At this point, I would be surprised if we do not reach the auxiliary list.

https://i.postimg.cc/nhsC1N3p/climatologicalpeak.png
https://i.postimg.cc/zG932pQW/climatologicalpeak2.png


While I am not sure if pre-naming is necessarily a good idea as various scenarios (unexpected expecially) could unfold with which storm gets named or not, I agree that the low-rider is a big concern, and with an active second half of this month, reaching Adria by October looks ever-increasingly likely.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1556 Postby toad strangler » Sat Sep 11, 2021 8:25 am

Posted this in the Africa wave thread but it belongs here too in general models....

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1436676650842918918


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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1557 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Sep 11, 2021 9:14 am

LarryWx wrote:
tolakram wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:I was only referring to the CONUS. Most CV landfalls on the CONUS occur on or before 20 September. However, CV systems can still affect the Islands in October.


How about Hugo, only one of the most famous CV systems? Not sure where you are getting your stats from? It's flat out rare for ANY CV system to hit the mainland US.

https://i.imgur.com/3lGozW1.png

Here's the link: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=2.59/3.24/-16&search=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

I used the euro forecast point at 144 hours, which is probably way off but more accurate than 240.


He said, “Most CV landfalls on the CONUS occur on or before 20 September.”

Depending on how one interprets the word “most” as well as “CV”, that can be considered an accurate statement if it doesn’t mean “almost all”. If when he says “most” he just means well over 50%, he’s right. I suspect that’s what he means.

You are correct. On this basis my observation shouldn’t be controversial. By “most” I mean the absolute majority (“well over 50%”). Climatology is a useful guide.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1558 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Sep 11, 2021 9:19 am

sma10 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:There are quite a few TUTTs and shortwaves passing through on the 12Z EC guidance, so there is a lot of opportunity for a N turn beyond the Islands.


Wait, according to you This season was going to underperform yet we have had 3 majors already. Enough with the down casting it’s really tiring and getting old frankly,


And let's not forget the famous "given the lack of CV threats, it looks extremely unlikely the CONUS will be threatened by a Major" prediction.

And then Ida struck 5 days later.

I consider “CV” systems to be cyclones that become depressions or stronger while over the MDR. Technically, Ida was not a classic CV-type system, per definition.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1559 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:18 am

tolakram wrote:
LarryWx wrote: He said, “Most CV landfalls on the CONUS occur on or before 20 September.”

Depending on how one interprets the word “most” as well as “CV”, that can be considered an accurate statement if it doesn’t mean “almost all”. If when he says “most” he just means well over 50%, he’s right. I suspect that’s what he means. But if he’s saying it is like 98%+, he’s not right. I think some here think he means like 98% or almost all. If we’re talking about those that became a TD+ E of 50N, I’m roughly guessing that it is more like 80-85% of CV LFs occurred by 9/20. That qualifies as “most” to me. That doesn’t at all mean the Conus can come even close to assuming we’re in the clear because we’re nowhere near that, especially in La Niña! Keep in mind that I had said in late August that I thought the US was pretty safe from a CV in the first half of this month but I also said that that wasn’t the case for the 2nd half, which is clearly up in the air even if it isn’t actually “likely” one will hit then. It is far above a zero chance I’d say.



Based on how many storms? There's very few that have hit the US, so how can one be confident in any metric other than it gets less likely as the season progresses? To slap a date on it, as if we have enough examples to be confident, is flat out wrong IMO.


Based on 52 “on record” that have hit the CONUS since 1851. The CV storms on record that I’ve found that hit the CONUS 9/20+ are at least these 8:

Lili 2002
Georges 1998
Hugo 1989
Gloria 1985
Inez 1966
1938
1926
1893

8/52 = 15% meaning 85% hit before 9/20. So, most did hit before 9/20. Is Shell Mound being unnecessarily attacked for the “most” statement. Yes imo. But is Shell Mound also downplaying the risk too much? Based on current Euro suite modeling, yes and I wouldn’t be downplaying it. Just because 85% have hit before 9/20 doesn’t at all mean the CONUS can rest easy right now, especially with it being close to La Niña. 15% is still a significant chunk that covers 9/20-10/13 with 13% (7) covering 9/20-10/4. So, 7 landfalls over just a 15 day period or about one every other day. Not as high as the ~1 per every day earlier, but still high enough for a potential threat to be respected, especially in La Niña.

Also note that 4 have occurred just since 1985, another reason to not downplay it. Some of this is due to it being the satellite era. But some may also be due to a warmer climate and thus SSTs staying warmer later as well as a tendency for a stronger WAR in late September to early October although I don’t want to get into the controversial GW topic right now. So, it having been 19 years may mean we’re quite overdue. In the satellite era, they have occurred once per 11 years on average.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:36 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1560 Postby Wampadawg » Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:31 am

Is the 94L thread locked?
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