5-year Cat 5 Streak in Atlantic Basin?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 113
Age: 19
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Phoenix AZ

5-year Cat 5 Streak in Atlantic Basin?

#1 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:02 am

So as some wx enthusiasts and meteorologists may have noticed (including myself), ever since 1924 when the first Cat 5 was documented in the Atlantic, there has been a 5-year streak from 2016-2020 with a total of 7 Cat 5s. The last Cat 5 year before 2016 was 2007 (so it has been a while), and the only other lengthy Cat 5 streak I could find in the historical database was 2003-2005 (only 3 years though). Other than that, Cat 5s have only occurred in isolated years or in doubles (like 1932-1933, 1979-1980, or 1988-1989). This recent pattern in my opinion is quite shocking, concerning, yet confusing at the same time.

As a topic of discussion, I would like to ask others' opinions or thoughts on why all of a sudden since 2016 there has been an unrelenting onslaught of Cat 5s and for how long conceivably this pattern could continue beyond 2020? I personally have little clue if this is just very bad luck or if the Atlantic is actually undergoing some climatological shift that is allowing for storms to be more intense and impactful. Thanks!
0 likes   

MarioProtVI
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 261
Age: 19
Joined: Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:33 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: 5-year Cat 5 Streak in Atlantic Basin?

#2 Postby MarioProtVI » Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:09 pm

I would consider it 4 years as I don’t think Matthew was a C5 (maybe it was very briefly) but the data suggests 155 mph. So 2017 to 2020. However the amount of years we’ve had storms of at least 155 mph (2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020) is quite stunning.
1 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1617
Age: 22
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 5-year Cat 5 Streak in Atlantic Basin?

#3 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:07 pm

I agree about Matthew as it was upgraded to a Category 5 based on a 143 knot SFMR value, before the reliability of SFMRs was called into question. Blending flight-level and SFMR winds for Matthew supports an intensity of about 130-135 knots.

Michael and Iota were borderline but I do think they made it.
3 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5183
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: 5-year Cat 5 Streak in Atlantic Basin?

#4 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Jan 17, 2021 11:03 pm

I think a 5 year or greater streak of Category 5 hurricane is likely. I can imagine it happening before satellite.
0 likes   

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 405
Age: 18
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: 5-year Cat 5 Streak in Atlantic Basin?

#5 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:41 am

If we had data during the 1770s-1780s, i believe 1779-1781 each had cat 5s.
2 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

Fancy1001
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 235
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:16 pm

Re: 5-year Cat 5 Streak in Atlantic Basin?

#6 Postby Fancy1001 » Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:52 am

I'm pretty sure these CAT5 streaks would be more common if we had kept the original designation for category 5 as 155 and above instead of changing it to 157.
1 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 31225
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 5-year Cat 5 Streak in Atlantic Basin?

#7 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Jan 23, 2021 10:28 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:I agree about Matthew as it was upgraded to a Category 5 based on a 143 knot SFMR value, before the reliability of SFMRs was called into question. Blending flight-level and SFMR winds for Matthew supports an intensity of about 130-135 knots.

Michael and Iota were borderline but I do think they made it.


I think that Matthew will get dropped to about 130 kt later (which is what a blend of the data supported at that time). Michael and Iota were definitely C5 at their peak.
4 likes   

ncforecaster89
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 125
Age: 50
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:32 pm
Contact:

Re: 5-year Cat 5 Streak in Atlantic Basin?

#8 Postby ncforecaster89 » Tue Jan 26, 2021 2:39 am

Fancy1001 wrote:I'm pretty sure these CAT5 streaks would be more common if we had kept the original designation for category 5 as 155 and above instead of changing it to 157.


The NHC has always used knots to set a particular TCs intensity. They use “mph” in the public advisories, but it has no bearing on categorization. Moreover, the old SSHS began Cat 5 designation at an equivalent of 156 mph and above. 155 mph has always been a Cat 4.

That said, I’m very confident the current Cat five streak has occurred in the not too distant past...prior to such extensive Recon & satellite observations.
5 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: galaxy401, Google Adsense [Bot], Kingarabian, Monsoonjr99, SFLcane, SteveM and 32 guests