Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

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Shell Mound
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Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#1 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:26 am

Does anyone know what combination, if any, of ENSO, PDO, and NAO tends to show up most often, historically, in association with Cat-4+ hits on South Florida?

By South Florida, I am referring to the NWS Miami’s CWA, which includes Broward, Collier, Glades, Hendry, Miami-Dade, Monroe (mainland only), and Palm Beach counties.

Perhaps someone like LarryWx has access to the data and is able to generously share the information. I am interested in data as far back as 1851 (start of HURDAT).

Thank you!
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#2 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:30 am

If you look at the year of 2004 I believe that may answer your question.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#3 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:29 am

Cat-4+ landfalling hurricanes in South Florida (1851–2020)
  1. 18 Sept 1926 — 125 knots — Miami–Dade County
  2. 17 Sept 1928 — 125 knots — Palm Beach County
  3. 15 Sept 1945 — 115 knots — Miami–Dade County
  4. 17 Sept 1947 — 115 knots — Broward County
  5. 22 Sept 1948 — 115 knots — Collier County
  6. 26 Aug 1949 — 115 knots — Palm Beach County
  7. 18 Oct 1950 — 115 knots — Miami–Dade County
  8. 24 Aug 1992 — 145 knots — Miami–Dade County
n = 8
Earliest: 24 Aug
Latest: 18 Oct

All but two of these major hurricanes developed in the MDR. The remainder developed over the western Caribbean Sea.

Avg. ASO ENSO: -0,466944444
Avg. ASO PDO: -0,098425
Avg. ASO NAO: 0,491666667

Same as above, but for years w/ ≥ 125 knots:
...: -0,233703704
...: 0,9486
...: 0,468888889

ENSO (NINO 3.4), PDO (ERSSTV4), and NAO (CRU) taken from this source

Favoured setup for Cat-4+ impacts: Weakly -ENSO, neutral PDO, weakly +NAO
Favoured setup for ≥ 125-knot impacts: cool neutral ENSO, moderately +PDO, weakly +NAO

Overall, either cool neutral ENSO or weak Niña conditions combined with a neutral to moderately +PDO and a weakly +NAO is the most conducive range.

Hurricane impacts vs. evolution of ENSO:
1925–7: +ENSO to -neutral to +neutral (ASO); LA (1), peninsular FL (2)
1928–30: -neutral to back-to-back +ENSO (ASO); TX (1), peninsular FL (3)
1942–5: continuous Niña (ASO); TX (4), peninsular FL (3), NC (2), NY/RI (1)
1947–50: continuous Niña (ASO); TX (2), LA (2), AL (1), peninsular FL (7), GA (1)
1991–3: +ENSO to -neutral to +ENSO (ASO); FL (1), RI (1)
Last edited by Shell Mound on Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:13 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#4 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:48 am

Yeah, 2004.

Are you missing 2017 Irma and 2004 Charley?
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#5 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:11 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Yeah, 2004.

Are you missing 2017 Irma and 2004 Charley?

Those years did not feature landfalls within the Miami CWA, which I defined as South Florida.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#6 Postby Nuno » Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:50 am

It will never not be remarkable that SFL has had one major hurricane landfall (as defined by Shell's criteria) since 1950, yet SEVEN in the 25 preceding years.
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Andrew (1992), Irene (1999), Katrina (2005), Wilma (2005), Irma (2017)


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