Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#21 Postby toad strangler » Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:38 am

Post 2000 East Coast FL landfalls

Katrina Cat 1
Jeanne Cat 3
Frances Cat 2

Matthew - NARROW MISS Cat 4
Dorian - NARROW MISS Cat 5

All from the East. Jeanne and Frances less than two weeks apart which still blows my mind to this day. It'll happen again. FL does get hit from the East. tick tock tick tock tick tock
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#22 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:21 am

toad strangler wrote:Post 2000 East Coast FL landfalls

Katrina Cat 1
Jeanne Cat 3
Frances Cat 2

Matthew - NARROW MISS Cat 4
Dorian - NARROW MISS Cat 5

All from the East. Jeanne and Frances less than two weeks apart which still blows my mind to this day. It'll happen again. FL does get hit from the East. tick tock tick tock tick tock

Regarding MH return periodsdefined as passage within 50 n mi of a particular point—I have extracted the following data for these areas in South Florida:

CITY..........................................RETURN.....LAST MH................................DUE
  1. Cape Sable..............17yr..........Irma (2017)......................2034
  2. Homestead..............17yr..........Andrew (1992).................2009
  3. Marco Island............18yr..........Irma (2017).....................2035
  4. Miami......................14yr..........Wilma (2005)...................2019
  5. West Palm Beach......16yr..........Matthew (2016)...............2032

Based on the data, then, only the most densely populated part of South Florida (Homestead–City of Miami) is technically overdue for a close MH passage.

Of the sixteen MH to pass within 50 n mi of Miami since 1851, all but two made landfall either in South Florida or on the neighbouring Florida Keys.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#23 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:35 am

Shell Mound wrote:
toad strangler wrote:Post 2000 East Coast FL landfalls

Katrina Cat 1
Jeanne Cat 3
Frances Cat 2

Matthew - NARROW MISS Cat 4
Dorian - NARROW MISS Cat 5

All from the East. Jeanne and Frances less than two weeks apart which still blows my mind to this day. It'll happen again. FL does get hit from the East. tick tock tick tock tick tock

Regarding MH return periodsdefined as passage within 50 n mi of a particular point—I have extracted the following data for these areas in South Florida:

CITY..........................................RETURN.....LAST MH................................DUE
  1. Cape Sable..............17yr..........Irma (2017)......................2034
  2. Homestead..............17yr..........Andrew (1992).................2009
  3. Marco Island............18yr..........Irma (2017).....................2035
  4. Miami......................14yr..........Wilma (2005)...................2019
  5. West Palm Beach......16yr..........Matthew (2016)...............2032

Based on the data, then, only the most densely populated part of South Florida (Homestead–City of Miami) is technically overdue for a close MH passage.

Of the sixteen MH to pass within 50 n mi of Miami since 1851, all but two made landfall either in South Florida or on the neighbouring Florida Keys.


What is it for Fort Lauderdale?
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#24 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:08 am

DestinHurricane wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
toad strangler wrote:Post 2000 East Coast FL landfalls

Katrina Cat 1
Jeanne Cat 3
Frances Cat 2

Matthew - NARROW MISS Cat 4
Dorian - NARROW MISS Cat 5

All from the East. Jeanne and Frances less than two weeks apart which still blows my mind to this day. It'll happen again. FL does get hit from the East. tick tock tick tock tick tock

Regarding MH return periodsdefined as passage within 50 n mi of a particular point—I have extracted the following data for these areas in South Florida:

CITY..........................................RETURN.....LAST MH................................DUE
  1. Cape Sable..............17yr..........Irma (2017)......................2034
  2. Homestead..............17yr..........Andrew (1992).................2009
  3. Marco Island............18yr..........Irma (2017).....................2035
  4. Miami......................14yr..........Wilma (2005)...................2019
  5. West Palm Beach......16yr..........Matthew (2016)...............2032

Based on the data, then, only the most densely populated part of South Florida (Homestead–City of Miami) is technically overdue for a close MH passage.

Of the sixteen MH to pass within 50 n mi of Miami since 1851, all but two made landfall either in South Florida or on the neighbouring Florida Keys.

What is it for Fort Lauderdale?

Fort Lauderdale is not listed among the points on the return-rate chart, so I did not include it, but its return rate (range) is probably similar to the others’.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#25 Postby Nuno » Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:46 am

tolakram wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Nuno wrote:
True, which is why we're discussing what the most common setups allow for an Andrew or 1926 type event.

I agree with you that South FL isn't as vulnerable to storms as people assume. Aside from protection from recurves, the Greater Antilles have shielded SFL from far worse impacts. It really is like threading a needle to hit Florida hard from the east. Even Irma couldn't fully do it without running into Cuba and weakening some. I want to see which geographic region has experienced more hurricane-force conditions since 2000 (or another arbitrary date): the OBX or SFL? I'd wager the OBX has been under far more hurricane warnings but I haven't done the research.


https://i.imgur.com/mn9dGn8.jpg
I guess it depends how narrow you define SFL, 17 Majors within 60NM is very impressive, no other area along the US Coast is even close.


Needs to be CAT 4 or higher, for some reason. :) Good point though. Also Irma doesn't count though it shows up in the numbers since it was a cat 4 just prior to landfall. Shell incorrectly said it was not in the Miami CWA. It was, but at cat 3.

https://i.imgur.com/gqRLmu6.png

https://i.imgur.com/4FWlV4l.png

11 storms. 12 if Irma is counted.

https://bit.ly/2Q257Uf


You'd be hard pressed to find many South Floridians that can even find Hendry or Glades county on an unlabeled map. It may be within Miami's CWA but Shell is likely looking at what demographically or culturally is SFL. Glades/Hendry isn't and that skews the numbers of storms that we are looking at affect coastal SFL
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#26 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:13 am

These "return periods" are not really a good measure for south florida hits. It includes storms that go into the gulf, don't make landfall at all in Florida, and some other scenarios due to how S. FL sits. It would be a good data point for a place like the Panhandle where storms have 1 way in and make landfall somewhere along the same coast.

I've defined these storms as making landfall on South Florida as major hurricanes since 1900.

1992 Andrew
1950 King
1949 Boynton beach
1947 Fort Lauderdale
1945 Homestead
1933 Jupiter
1928 great Okeechobee
1926 Great Miami

So, S.FL averages a landfall every 15 years. Right now its been 28 years, so it'd fair to say south Florida is in a drought as far as major hurricanes go.

I messed with this map enough to only show these storms: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map= ... UiOnRydWV9

You can see that all of them with the exception of King formed in the MDR.

So yes, an active MDR certainly raises the probability of a S. FL hit.
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Fort Lauderdale, Florida: Eta 2020, many future storms!

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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#27 Postby SFLcane » Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:08 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:These "return periods" are not really a good measure for south florida hits. It includes storms that go into the gulf, don't make landfall at all in Florida, and some other scenarios due to how S. FL sits. It would be a good data point for a place like the Panhandle where storms have 1 way in and make landfall somewhere along the same coast.

I've defined these storms as making landfall on South Florida as major hurricanes since 1900.

1992 Andrew
1950 King
1949 Boynton beach
1947 Fort Lauderdale
1945 Homestead
1933 Jupiter
1928 great Okeechobee
1926 Great Miami

So, S.FL averages a landfall every 15 years. Right now its been 28 years, so it'd fair to say south Florida is in a drought as far as major hurricanes go.

I messed with this map enough to only show these storms: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map= ... UiOnRydWV9

You can see that all of them with the exception of King formed in the MDR.

So yes, an active MDR certainly raises the probability of a S. FL hit.


Sure, or we could have another 2010 we’re they all recurve.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#28 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:26 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:I've defined these storms as making landfall on South Florida as major hurricanes since 1900.

1992 Andrew
1950 King
1949 Boynton beach
1947 Fort Lauderdale
1945 Homestead
1933 Jupiter
1928 great Okeechobee
1926 Great Miami

What’s fascinating about all this is the fact that most of these hits, aside from Andrew, occurred prior to the major postwar boom in metropolitan South Florida’s population. I am not implying conspiracies or anything supernatural, of course, but I’ve always noted how the MH drought coincides almost exactly with the period in which most people have moved to Miami-Dade, Broward, and/or Palm Beach counties. In 1992 Homestead was just a rural agricultural community, apart from the AFB, but it is now solidly part of Greater Miami. Even so, Andrew permanently altered the landscape and demographics of South Florida, given the exodus of residents northward from South Dade. Given that South Florida was very sparsely populated prior to 1900, probably many other MH occurred in the nineteenth century that went unrecorded. So the recent MH drought probably is as anomalous as it seems to be.

Even wxman57 noted elsewhere on this forum that hurricane landfalls on the mainland U.S. seem to be happening less frequently in recent years than earlier in the twentieth century. On the other hand, more of the hits that do occur now take place in single seasons (“spurts”), i.e., 2004, 2005, and 2020. So I wonder if the MH drought in South Florida might end with two or more MH hits in the same season, as if to compensate for the long hiatus beforehand. Imagine two major hurricanes, including at least one high-end Cat-4+, striking metropolitan South Florida in the same year. That might sound outlandish, but Mother Nature tends to achieve equilibrium, one way or another, so maybe something like that is “in the cards” if/when the drought finally dissipates. After all, both FL (Dennis, Wilma) and LA (Katrina, Rita) each sustained two MH impacts in 2005. So it is definitely possible.

(In fact, the great September hurricanes of 1926 and 1928 were each preceded by weaker hurricanes in July 1926 and August 1928, respectively.)
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#29 Postby Gums » Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:27 pm

Salute!

Until last week, ENSO looked like a weak Nina, and that has historically encouraged more storms on the southerly tracks and into the Gulf.

Now, looks like Nina weakening and we could wind up with a "neutral" temp in the eastern Pacific. Here in the Panhandle, we like Nino, as he usually forces the storms further north. If we have a neutral ENSO or even a weak Nina, I feel we will get a hit on the south part of the peninsula ( Ft Lauderdale and south) as well as a half dozen in the Gulf.

I gotta find a good ocean temp record for 1995, as we had many storms but most went around in circles south of Bermuda and east of the Bahamas. Then we had two hit us 60 days apart - Erin and Opal.

We shall see.

Gums sends...
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#30 Postby SFLcane » Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:13 pm

Neutral/Weak El-Nino years have the greatest number of tropical landfalls in SFL.
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