Big ones for 2021

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2620
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Big ones for 2021

#1 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Feb 06, 2021 1:28 pm

What say we liven up Talkin' Tropics a bit and talk about what we think will be the big ones for 2021? 8-)

The names:

Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Elsa
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Julian
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

The possibilities for me this year for now are Elsa, Ida (yes, the I storm again), Leisure Suit Larry, Odette, and possibly Rose.

And no, I am not currently guessing on any Greek names or whatever they want to use yet. :wink:
0 likes   
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: Big ones for 2021

#2 Postby aspen » Sat Feb 06, 2021 1:54 pm

I wonder if 2021 will finally break the trend of Henri being a weak, pathetic, forgettable storm.

I’m getting a bit of bad vibes from Julian. Not only is it a name likely to be in the peak season, and the replacement of a borderline Cat 5, but it just seems fitting for a Big One. Even if 2021 sees a very active early season like 2020, Julian probably won’t be used until mid August at the earliest.

Ida through Odette seem to be the most probable names to occur during the heart of the season from mid August through the end of September, while anything afterwards would fall into the October peak and could be a late season Caribbean monster. Even with a La Niña, it’s very unlikely that 2021 will come close to the rapid pace of 2020, but an above-average season looks likely, so we could get quite deeper than normal into the name list once the first burst of activity in ASO arrives.
2 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: Big ones for 2021

#3 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Feb 06, 2021 2:04 pm

I am betting on Grace being a cat 2 that makes a powerful landfall in Florida then going on to strengthen to a large cat 3-4 and slam into Louisiana Katrina style. Just a guess. :shoot:
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

Fancy1001
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 452
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:16 pm

Re: Big ones for 2021

#4 Postby Fancy1001 » Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:25 pm

Depending on how active the season is early on, I have a bad feeling about Ida and Nicholas.
0 likes   

Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: Big ones for 2021

#5 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Feb 07, 2021 6:40 am

TS Ana: forms off the Mid-Atlantic in late May, initially subtropical, peaks at 55 knots (65 mph) while heading ENE out to sea
TS Bill: develops over the BoC in late June, heads W, peaks at 50 knots (60 mph) before striking mainland Mexico
H Claudette: first hurricane of the season, develops in the MDR in mid July, peaks at 75 knots (85 mph), then gets ripped apart near islands
H Danny: forms over the NW Caribbean in early August, briefly reaches H status over the SW GoM, weakens to a TS before hitting TX/MX border
MH Elsa: long-lived CV system, forms in mid August, reaches Cat-4 status multiple times, makes landfall near Cape Fear, NC, with winds of 120 knots (140 mph)
TS Fred: strong tropical storm peaks at 60 knots (70 mph) while heading N and NNE just to the west of Bermuda in mid August
TS Grace: develops over the BoC in mid August, also peaks at 60 knots (70 mph), strikes mainland Mexico at peak intensity
TS Henri: forms over or just off West Africa in late August, heads WNW, hits the CV islands with winds of 50 knots (60 mph), then weakens and dissipates
MH Ida: long-lived CV system, forms at the close of August, peaks twice as a Cat-5 over the open Atlantic, strikes Bermuda with winds of 125 knots (145 mph), then heads OTS
H Julian: forms near the Leeward Islands at the end of August, heads WNW, strikes SW tip of PR with winds of 80 knots (90 mph), then weakens to TS over the S Bahamas and dissipates before reaching S FL
MH Kate: forms S of Jamaica in early September, RI into Cat-4 before hitting W Cuba, curves NW, N, and NE over the E GoM, hits Cedar Key, FL, with winds of 105 knots (120 mph), then accelerates over SE U.S.
TS Larry: forms over the far North Atlantic in mid September, peaks at 50 knots (60 mph) while heading OTS
TS Mindy: develops over the eastern subtropical Atlantic in mid September, peaks at 45 knots (50 mph) while heading N, remains OTS
MH Nicholas: forms over the S Caribbean in late September, heads NW and N, peaks as a Cat-5 before impacting Cuba as a strong Cat-4, then impacts the Bahamas as a MH before heading OTS
H Odette: develops near the Azores in early October and passes near those islands as a high-end Cat-1 before impacting Europe as a strong ET cyclone
MH Peter: forms over the NW Caribbean in early November, drifts around while peaking as a Cat-4, then heads N and NNE into western Cuba as a Cat-2 before becoming ET

Big ones are highlighted in bold

16 NS / 9 H / 5 MH
ACE ~210
Last edited by Shell Mound on Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:29 am, edited 2 times in total.
1 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2620
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: Big ones for 2021

#6 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:16 am

Shell Mound wrote:TS Ana: forms off the Mid-Atlantic in late May, initially subtropical, peaks at 55 knots (65 mph) while heading ENE out to sea
TS Bill: develops over the BoC in late June, heads W, peaks at 50 knots (60 mph) before striking mainland Mexico
H Claudette: first hurricane of the season, develops in the MDR in mid July, peaks at 75 knots (85 mph), then gets ripped apart near islands
H Danny: forms over the NW Caribbean in early August, briefly reaches H status over the SW GoM, weakens to a TS before hitting TX/MX border
MH Elsa: long-lived CV system, forms in mid August, reaches Cat-4 status multiple times, makes landfall near Cape Fear, NC, with winds of 120 knots (140 mph)
TS Fred: strong tropical storm peaks at 60 knots (70 mph) while heading N and NNE just to the west of Bermuda in mid August
TS Grace: develops over the BoC in mid August, also peaks at 60 knots (70 mph), strikes mainland Mexico at peak intensity
TS Henri: forms over or just off West Africa in late August, heads WNW, hits the CV islands with winds of 50 knots (60 mph), then weakens and dissipates
MH Ida: long-lived CV system, forms at the close of August, peaks twice as a Cat-5 over the open Atlantic, strikes Bermuda with winds of 125 knots (145 mph), then heads OTS
H Julian: forms near the Leeward Islands at the end of August, heads WNW, strikes SW tip of PR with winds of 80 knots (90 mph), then weakens to TS over the S Bahamas and dissipates before reaching S FL
MH Karl: forms S of Jamaica in early September, RI into Cat-4 before hitting W Cuba, curves NW, N, and NE over the E GoM, hits Cedar Key, FL, with winds of 105 knots (120 mph), then accelerates over SE U.S.
TS Lisa: forms over the far North Atlantic in mid September, peaks at 50 knots (60 mph) while heading OTS
TS Martin: develops over the eastern subtropical Atlantic in mid September, peaks at 45 knots (50 mph) while heading N, remains OTS
MH Nicole: forms over the S Caribbean in late September, heads NW and N, peaks as a Cat-5 before impacting Cuba as a strong Cat-4, then impacts the Bahamas as a MH before heading OTS
H Nicholas: develops near the Azores in early October and passes near those islands as a high-end Cat-1 before impacting Europe as a strong ET cyclone
MH Owen: forms over the NW Caribbean in early November, drifts around while peaking as a Cat-4, then heads N and NNE into western Cuba as a Cat-2 before becoming ET

Big ones are highlighted in bold

16 NS /9 H / 5 MH
ACE ~210



I think you somehow segued into 2022. :lol:
0 likes   
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Big ones for 2021

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:40 am

Grace, Nicholas.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: Big ones for 2021

#8 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:29 am

AnnularCane wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:TS Ana: forms off the Mid-Atlantic in late May, initially subtropical, peaks at 55 knots (65 mph) while heading ENE out to sea
TS Bill: develops over the BoC in late June, heads W, peaks at 50 knots (60 mph) before striking mainland Mexico
H Claudette: first hurricane of the season, develops in the MDR in mid July, peaks at 75 knots (85 mph), then gets ripped apart near islands
H Danny: forms over the NW Caribbean in early August, briefly reaches H status over the SW GoM, weakens to a TS before hitting TX/MX border
MH Elsa: long-lived CV system, forms in mid August, reaches Cat-4 status multiple times, makes landfall near Cape Fear, NC, with winds of 120 knots (140 mph)
TS Fred: strong tropical storm peaks at 60 knots (70 mph) while heading N and NNE just to the west of Bermuda in mid August
TS Grace: develops over the BoC in mid August, also peaks at 60 knots (70 mph), strikes mainland Mexico at peak intensity
TS Henri: forms over or just off West Africa in late August, heads WNW, hits the CV islands with winds of 50 knots (60 mph), then weakens and dissipates
MH Ida: long-lived CV system, forms at the close of August, peaks twice as a Cat-5 over the open Atlantic, strikes Bermuda with winds of 125 knots (145 mph), then heads OTS
H Julian: forms near the Leeward Islands at the end of August, heads WNW, strikes SW tip of PR with winds of 80 knots (90 mph), then weakens to TS over the S Bahamas and dissipates before reaching S FL
MH Karl: forms S of Jamaica in early September, RI into Cat-4 before hitting W Cuba, curves NW, N, and NE over the E GoM, hits Cedar Key, FL, with winds of 105 knots (120 mph), then accelerates over SE U.S.
TS Lisa: forms over the far North Atlantic in mid September, peaks at 50 knots (60 mph) while heading OTS
TS Martin: develops over the eastern subtropical Atlantic in mid September, peaks at 45 knots (50 mph) while heading N, remains OTS
MH Nicole: forms over the S Caribbean in late September, heads NW and N, peaks as a Cat-5 before impacting Cuba as a strong Cat-4, then impacts the Bahamas as a MH before heading OTS
H Nicholas: develops near the Azores in early October and passes near those islands as a high-end Cat-1 before impacting Europe as a strong ET cyclone
MH Owen: forms over the NW Caribbean in early November, drifts around while peaking as a Cat-4, then heads N and NNE into western Cuba as a Cat-2 before becoming ET

Big ones are highlighted in bold

16 NS /9 H / 5 MH
ACE ~210

I think you somehow segued into 2022. :lol:

Corrected.
0 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Big ones for 2021

#9 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:26 pm

Honestly, I am going to go with Ida and Mindy given the recent years "M curse" as well as the infamous "I" curse. I also think Henri, Julian, and Victor should be watched. I'm really not basing my latter guesses on anything concrete or any historic pattern of course.
Last edited by Category5Kaiju on Wed Mar 24, 2021 3:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
GrayLancer18
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 88
Joined: Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:45 pm
Contact:

Re: Big ones for 2021

#10 Postby GrayLancer18 » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:33 am

For the male names, Henri, Julian and Nicolas stand out; as for the females, Grace, Kate and Odette.

If the season starts late, then Claudette, Elsa and Fred sound like big ones; on the other of the spectrum, if there is a hyperactive season, Peter, Rose and Teresa sound like they could be trouble.
0 likes   
Hugo (1989) Hortense (1996) Georges (1998) Jeanne (2004) Irene (2011) Maria (2017)

I am NOT a professional meteorologist nor weather professional. Opinions are my own.
Consult with NHC and NOAA for official forecasts and advisories.

BadLarry95
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 94
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:40 pm

Re: Big ones for 2021

#11 Postby BadLarry95 » Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:14 pm

I’ll go with
Julian, Larry, and Odette being the bad ones of this year.
0 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: Big ones for 2021

#12 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:50 am

For Atlantic - I'll take Kate & Mindy
For WPAC - my money's on Chanthu, Malou, Nyatoh & Rai
Last edited by mrbagyo on Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
zal0phus
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 126
Age: 23
Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:32 am
Location: Illinois and Ohio
Contact:

Re: Big ones for 2021

#13 Postby zal0phus » Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:03 pm

Claudette, Odette, and Sam concern me this year. Claudette sounds like a Cape Verde storm in early August, Odette gives me Caribbean cruiser vibes, and Sam sounds like a late-season MH that hits south Florida. Regardless, fingers crossed that this season won't even make it to Sam.
0 likes   
And it all comes tumbling down, tumbling down, tumbling down...
And I just keep letting me down, letting me down, letting me down...

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7280
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: Big ones for 2021

#14 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Feb 20, 2021 1:15 am

Heres my thoughts for 2021 with the big ones in bold


Ana: Forms near North Carolina April 25th and makes landfall at 40mph peak

Bill: Forms halfway between the lesser Antilles and Africa July 23rd and peaks at 65mph at landfall in Trinidad and dissipates July 25th in South America

Claudette: Forms right off of Africa August 10th and peaks at 100mph as it recurves into the Atlantic

Danny: Forms off the East Coast August 15th and strengthens to 115mph as it recurves between Bermuda and North Carolina

ELSA: Forms midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa August 21st and peaks first at landfall on Antigua at 175mph on August 24th and recurves into the Bahamas as a 145mph Hurricane but unfortunately moves into North Carolina as a 125mph hurricane August 27th and dissipates over Pennsylvania

Fred: Forms near Texas August 23rd and peaks at landfall in Port Authur as a 45mph TS and dissipates over the Arklatex

GRACE: Forms north of Puerto Rico August 29th and rapidly intensifies and hits the Turks and Caicos as a 145mph hurricane and continues to Key west at peak of 190mph around September 2nd and makes a final landfall near Morgan City Louisiana as a 115mph hurricane and dissipates over Ohio

HENRI: Forms near Grand Bahama August 31st and rapidly intensifies to a 145mph hurricane off the Carolina Coast on the 3rd of September and makes landfall in Montauk, NY as a 125mph hurricane and 120mph in Warwick RI september 4th

Ida: Forms near Hispaniola September 5th and moves over Cuba the whole way and finally develops heading north to Panama City, FL as a 50mph TS

Julian: Forms off A Front near Bermuda September 5th and peaks at 50mph

KATE: Forms in the eastern Carribean September 10th and struggles until it hits the Yucatan Channel September 12th and rapidly intesnifies as it peaks near Sarasota, FL September 13th as a 145mph hurricane and goes over water at Daytona as a 85mph Hurricane and makes another Landfall near OBX as a 100mph Hurricane and a final landfall in Halifax on September 16th as a 75mph hurricane

Larry: Forms near the Azores September 25th and peaks at 80mph and makes landfall in Portugal as a 40mph TS

Mindy: Forms near the CV Islands September 25th and peaks at 45mph as it gets sheared by Larry and Dissipates

Nicholas: Forms in the Western Caribbean October 1st and makes landfall in Nicaragua at 45mph Peak

Odette: Forms south of Cuba October 5th and peaks at 65mph as it crosses Cuba and hits Miami as a 45mph TS and dissipates over Orlando

Peter: Forms near Bermuda October 8th and peaks at 75mph as it heads out to sea

ROSE: Forms in the Western Caribbean October 15th and bombs out to a peak of 200mph and head to the Yucatan Channel and makes landfall in Sarasota as a 160mph hurricane and exits south of Daytona as a 120mph hurricane and makes a final landfall in Bermuda as a 115mph hurricane

Sam: Forms in the Western Caribbean October 25th and hits Honduras at peak as a 60mph TS

Teresa: Forms in the central Atlantic October 28th and peaks at 60mph

VICTOR: Forms in the Western Caribbean November 8th and peaks at 150mph in Cancun November 8th and makes another Landfall in Key West as a 100mph hurricane and gets absorbed into a Nor'easter near New England

Wanda: Forms off the east coast December 10th and peaks at 100mph making landfall in Falmouth, MA as a 75mph hurricane turning Extratropical hours later

21\11\7
0 likes   

User avatar
JetFuel_SE
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 261
Age: 24
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 pm

Re: Big ones for 2021

#15 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:12 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Heres my thoughts for 2021 with the big ones in bold

KATE: Forms in the eastern Carribean September 10th and struggles until it hits the Yucatan Channel September 12th and rapidly intesnifies as it peaks near Sarasota, FL September 13th as a 145mph hurricane and goes over water at Daytona as a 85mph Hurricane and makes another Landfall near OBX as a 100mph Hurricane and a final landfall in Halifax on September 16th as a 75mph hurricane

ROSE: Forms in the Western Caribbean October 15th and bombs out to a peak of 200mph and head to the Yucatan Channel and makes landfall in Sarasota as a 160mph hurricane and exits south of Daytona as a 120mph hurricane and makes a final landfall in Bermuda as a 115mph hurricane


Pretty sure that place hasn't had a major landfall in like 100 years. Would be pretty insane to have a C4 and a C5 make landfall there in the same year
1 likes   

michelinj
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 40
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:59 pm

Re: Big ones for 2021

#16 Postby michelinj » Mon Feb 22, 2021 4:50 pm

As we have Wanda in the Atlantic this season, I want a petition to have Vision as the V name in the East Pacific, so we have the smallest chance at having hurricane Wanda-Vision!!! (For any fellow marvel fans out there) :lol:
1 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Big ones for 2021

#17 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Mar 24, 2021 3:03 pm

Btw no need to worry about Greeks anymore, they've been scrapped. However, if we do manage to get to the aux list, Adria, Deshawn, Heath, and Jacobus seem pretty menacing
1 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1915
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise

Re: Big ones for 2021

#18 Postby Kazmit » Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:17 am

Julian and Odette
0 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: Big ones for 2021

#19 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:21 am

Elsa and Ana lol
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

BadLarry95
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 94
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:40 pm

Re: Big ones for 2021

#20 Postby BadLarry95 » Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:33 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Elsa and Ana lol


If Henri and Sam get retired...
Hans and Sven anyone?

Unfortunately Kristoff will absolutely not be a replacement for Kate
1 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: JetFuel_SE and 58 guests