NHC will begin the issuance of TWO's on May 15

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Do you favor or not the start of Atlantic season on May 15th?

Poll ended at Mon Mar 08, 2021 2:22 pm

Yes
39
89%
No
5
11%
 
Total votes: 44

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cycloneye
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NHC will begin the issuance of TWO's on May 15

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 26, 2021 2:22 pm

Interesting discussion about starting the North Atlantic season on par with EPAC on May 15th. Let's do a poll. Poll with close on March 8 at 3:22 PM EST.

I say yes.

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Re: NHC discussing if it begins North Atlantic season on May 15th

#2 Postby crownweather » Fri Feb 26, 2021 3:18 pm

I am a hard "yes" on moving the start date of the Hurricane Season to May 15.

I'll play "devil's advocate" and stir things up a little though - Why not do away with the term "Hurricane Season" all together & just have NHC TWOs year-round. We do sometimes see tropical and sub-tropical systems form outside of "the regular hurricane season". SPC already issues daily severe weather outlooks year-round because there's no such thing as an official severe weather season. Weather phenomena should never be put inside of a box as it sometimes occurs outside of that box.
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Re: NHC discussing if it begins North Atlantic season on May 15th

#3 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Feb 26, 2021 3:38 pm

I'm mixed on whether or not to move the start date up to May 15.
We are on an impressive 6 year streak of tropical storm activity in May. However... In the grand scheme of things, I think they could wait a few more years before pulling the trigger. I mean, what if they switch it and then we go on a big stormless May streak? The +AMO phase has been ongoing since 1995, so it will probably end sometime this decade. That being said, I would imagine there won't much action in May once that happens.
So basically I'm neutral lol
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Re: NHC discussing if it begins North Atlantic season on May 15th

#4 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Feb 26, 2021 4:28 pm

If they change the date that will really mess up my countdown. :yayaya:

They probably wouldn't consider that as a reason not to do it though. I would kind of prefer that they at least wait till next year, if they must. But yeah, just watch them change the date and then go the next ten years with no preseason storms.
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Re: NHC discussing if it begins North Atlantic season on May 15th

#5 Postby ClarCari » Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:47 pm

Hard yes.

Okay so about the AMO discussion. It seems to me that even before 1995 there likely may have been many seasons with pre-season activity at similar rates to today, just that our technology and research at the time didn’t identify or recognize systems as such back then. As the HURDAT database gets updated over time and we review past seasons, I truly believe more and more pre-June storms will
be discovered.
I believe the AMO has more to do with other conditions in the ATL and not necessarily timing of cyclone genesis.

And alot of these May storms have been spinning up close to land and hard to predict for the NHC and they are hopeful that by extending the season and TWO’s that they can provide better forecasting to the public which is the far more important reason why the season should start earlier.
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Re: NHC discussing if it begins North Atlantic season on May 15th

#6 Postby mitchell » Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:47 pm

The data would seem to clearly justify it.

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Re: NHC discussing if it begins North Atlantic season on May 15th

#7 Postby MGC » Fri Feb 26, 2021 9:41 pm

NHC should not name marginal or questionable systems......MGC
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Re: NHC discussing if it begins North Atlantic season on May 15th

#8 Postby ClarCari » Fri Feb 26, 2021 10:02 pm

MGC wrote:NHC should not name marginal or questionable systems......MGC


See the issue with that is that it isn’t over for a storm till the fat lady sings. Systems that have had a wall of shear, pockets of dry air, and low sst’s can and have still managed to organize and later become devastating to areas.

To not name and monitor systems that are currently weak just because we presume it will 100% follow our predictions (orders?) would be highly irresponsible.

Fact is pre-season storms have a habit of spinning up abruptly and at times close to land, and $200 million damages and 20 deaths since only 2012 (which was noted on the WMO discussion about this issue) is no small number to those who were impacted by them.
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Re: NHC discussing if it begins North Atlantic season on May 15th

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 27, 2021 6:19 am

If there is a change to May 15th, the S2K poll will start as always on April 1.
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Re: NHC discussing if it begins North Atlantic season on May 15th

#10 Postby wxman57 » Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:55 am

We've always started our outlooks on May 15th, mainly to work out any bugs with deliveries & videos. The fact is that with changing naming policies and better detection available, more storms are being named prior to June 1. When I was a kid, the "A" storm was frequently not named until August. However with the addition of satellite data that first storm became earlier and earlier. Naming of subtropical storms and scatterometer data have moved the date earlier and earlier. I guess we'll need to start our outlooks on May 1st, then. But then, the NHC will probably need 4-5 years of "study" before they make the decision to start earlier to make sure there will be no issues.

In the end, it makes no difference at all. If a pre-season storm threat arises, then special outlooks are issued. If if something is developing in April, advisories are issued. June 1st is just a marker identifying when outlooks are issued daily.
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Re: NHC discussing if it begins North Atlantic season on May 15th

#11 Postby Kazmit » Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:03 am

Not only does it make sense as storms will continue to form earlier (and later) in the future, but it will also be synonymous with the EPac.
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Re: NHC discussing if it begins North Atlantic season on May 15th

#12 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:11 am

This makes sense, meteorologically and practically. Meteorologically, many pre-June hurricanes and named storms were likely missed, prior to the 1980s and especially prior to the satellite era. Pre-June systems produced TS conditions over the CONUS in May 1908, May 1916, May 1951, May 1959, May 2007, May 2012, May 2015, and May 2018. Additionally, preliminary reanalysis indicates that a Category-2 hurricane, dubbed Amanda, made landfall in the Florida Panhandle at the close of May 1863. Furthermore, designating 15 May as the official start of the season gives coastal residents an additional head’s-up shortly prior to the start of summer vacation. I vote “hard” yes.
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Re: NHC discussing if it begins North Atlantic season on May 15th

#13 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Feb 27, 2021 5:03 pm

I vote yes on this. The past 6 seasons have seen pre-season storms, but more importantly, the fact is that May 15 is also the start date for the EPAC season (so more consistency) and pre-season storms such as Alberto 2018 and Bertha 2020 did hit land and caused flooding, damages, and deaths (so more emphasis on the fact that such early storms are not rare and that they can still inflict loss of life and hazardous conditions). I feel it is better to give people advanced warning rather than be late and confuse them with the sense that late May storms are no big deal or cannot occur easily.


Btw, I know the WMO is planning on meeting online in mid-March and then have a much shorter part 2 meeting in May; while I know this will be presented in their March meeting, are they going to announce retired names from 2019 and 2020 in March as well?
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Re: NHC discussing if it begins North Atlantic season on May 15th

#14 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat Feb 27, 2021 6:20 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:I vote yes on this. The past 6 seasons have seen pre-season storms, but more importantly, the fact is that May 15 is also the start date for the EPAC season (so more consistency) and pre-season storms such as Alberto 2018 and Bertha 2020 did hit land and caused flooding, damages, and deaths (so more emphasis on the fact that such early storms are not rare and that they can still inflict loss of life and hazardous conditions). I feel it is better to give people advanced warning rather than be late and confuse them with the sense that late May storms are no big deal or cannot occur easily.


Btw, I know the WMO is planning on meeting online in mid-March and then have a much shorter part 2 meeting in May; while I know this will be presented in their March meeting, are they going to announce retired names from 2019 and 2020 in March as well?

Yes, the schedule is public.
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Re: NHC discussing if it begins North Atlantic season on May 15th

#15 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:47 pm

A lot of you certainly made good arguments in favor of changing the date. Now you have me thinking it may not be a bad idea. 8-) Probably can't change my vote though, but oh well. Not sure I'd do it just yet anyway.

I still think it might be better to wait till next year though. I dunno, maybe give everyone time to get used to a new start date? (Or at least me? :lol: )
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Re: NHC discussing if it begins North Atlantic season on May 15th

#16 Postby jasons2k » Mon Mar 01, 2021 11:08 pm

I’m for it. A lot of local media issue their tracking maps, supply lists, public service announcements, etc. on June 1st. I’m in favor of getting prepared early and ahead of time, so move it into May in case there is an early season storm.
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Re: NHC discussing if it begins North Atlantic season on May 15th

#17 Postby weathaguyry » Tue Mar 02, 2021 8:34 am

It seems almost every year the Atlantic wants to throw us something in the second half of May. The EPac season already starts May 15th, and is already under NHC jurisdiction, so why not start them both at the same time. I feel that the increased quality of satellite imagery over the past 10 years, with perhaps more relaxed naming standards, has allowed for the detection of broad/weak circulations in storms that would have been mostly passed over by the NHC in the 70’s or 80’s.
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Re: NHC discussing if it begins North Atlantic season on May 15th

#18 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:31 am

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Re: Is official: North Atlantic Season will begin on May 15

#19 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:28 am


Welp, it's official . . .
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Re: Is oficial: North Atlantic Season will begin on May 15

#20 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:32 am

All I see is that they're starting the outlooks on the 15th, which I think we knew already. I don't see anything about the actual season starting then.
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