NHC will begin the issuance of TWO's on May 15

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Do you favor or not the start of Atlantic season on May 15th?

Poll ended at Mon Mar 08, 2021 2:22 pm

Yes
39
89%
No
5
11%
 
Total votes: 44

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cycloneye
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Re: Is oficial: North Atlantic Season will begin on May 15

#21 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 02, 2021 11:02 am

AnnularCane wrote:All I see is that they're starting the outlooks on the 15th, which I think we knew already. I don't see anything about the actual season starting then.


You are right. In the WMO meeting is when it will be decided.
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Re: NHC will begin the issuance of TWO's on May 15 / WMO decides oficial start between March 15-17

#22 Postby wxman57 » Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:06 pm

I see this as a solution without a problem. There is no problem in keeping things as they are. IF there is a tropical disturbance that develops out of the pre-defined season, then the NHC can simply initiate daily outlooks for the disturbance. These can be issued as often as is deemed necessary. Advisories would be issued as they normally would be for an "in-season" storm. No one is left un-warned.
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Re: NHC will begin the issuance of TWO's on May 15 / WMO decides oficial start between March 15-17

#23 Postby mitchell » Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:51 pm

wxman57 wrote:I see this as a solution without a problem. There is no problem in keeping things as they are. IF there is a tropical disturbance that develops out of the pre-defined season, then the NHC can simply initiate daily outlooks for the disturbance. These can be issued as often as is deemed necessary. Advisories would be issued as they normally would be for an "in-season" storm. No one is left un-warned.


I see it a bit differently, only in terms of communicating risk - not the science part. When the "official season" begins on June 1, and systems frequently develop earlier (8 out of the last 20 years) it creates the impression ((rightly or wrongly) that the early system is unexpected, rare, or indicative of some unusual weather pattern, climate change trend, or forecasting uncertainty. I would argue it is complicated enough to communicate with the public about tropical weather risk, so eliminating any sources of confusion, skepticism, or excuse for unpreparedness is worthwhile. It helps that I don't see any downside to the 15 day adjustment. Is there a downside?
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Re: NHC will begin the issuance of TWO's on May 15 / WMO decides oficial start between March 15-17

#24 Postby wxman57 » Tue Mar 02, 2021 3:03 pm

mitchell wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I see this as a solution without a problem. There is no problem in keeping things as they are. IF there is a tropical disturbance that develops out of the pre-defined season, then the NHC can simply initiate daily outlooks for the disturbance. These can be issued as often as is deemed necessary. Advisories would be issued as they normally would be for an "in-season" storm. No one is left un-warned.


I see it a bit differently, only in terms of communicating risk - not the science part. When the "official season" begins on June 1, and systems frequently develop earlier (8 out of the last 20 years) it creates the impression ((rightly or wrongly) that the early system is unexpected, rare, or indicative of some unusual weather pattern, climate change trend, or forecasting uncertainty. I would argue it is complicated enough to communicate with the public about tropical weather risk, so eliminating any sources of confusion, skepticism, or excuse for unpreparedness is worthwhile. It helps that I don't see any downside to the 15 day adjustment. Is there a downside?


Why not start the season in March or April? We've had subtropical storms prior to May 15. Again, if there is ANY kind of a tropical threat identified in the tropics prior to June 1st, those threats will be covered by outlooks and advisories. The downside might be sending out outlook after outlook saying there are still no disturbances in the tropics. That would not help risk managers, and I deal with many risk managers. Also, it would require a 24-hr shift at NHC starting May 15th. I would assume that they aren't fully-staffed 24 hours a day out of season. That's not much of a downside, but I see no benefit in changing the date of the start.

One other thing is that June 1 is the start of hurricane season. How many hurricanes have formed in the past 10 years prior to June 1? The only hurricane I could find was Alex of 2016 that formed (transitioned from an ET storm to a hurricane) on January 14th. Maybe the HURRICANE season should start January 1? Hurricanes occasionally form in the East Pacific prior to June 1st, which is why the season there starts before the Atlantic.

Oh, well, since the decision has been made, we'll be moving the start of OUR outlooks to May 1st. Need a couple weeks of testing and adjusting our database for bad emails before May 15th.
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Re: NHC will begin the issuance of TWO's on May 15 / WMO decides oficial start between March 15-17

#25 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:13 pm

wxman57 wrote:
mitchell wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I see this as a solution without a problem. There is no problem in keeping things as they are. IF there is a tropical disturbance that develops out of the pre-defined season, then the NHC can simply initiate daily outlooks for the disturbance. These can be issued as often as is deemed necessary. Advisories would be issued as they normally would be for an "in-season" storm. No one is left un-warned.


I see it a bit differently, only in terms of communicating risk - not the science part. When the "official season" begins on June 1, and systems frequently develop earlier (8 out of the last 20 years) it creates the impression ((rightly or wrongly) that the early system is unexpected, rare, or indicative of some unusual weather pattern, climate change trend, or forecasting uncertainty. I would argue it is complicated enough to communicate with the public about tropical weather risk, so eliminating any sources of confusion, skepticism, or excuse for unpreparedness is worthwhile. It helps that I don't see any downside to the 15 day adjustment. Is there a downside?


Why not start the season in March or April? We've had subtropical storms prior to May 15. Again, if there is ANY kind of a tropical threat identified in the tropics prior to June 1st, those threats will be covered by outlooks and advisories.


(Snipped)
Given the combined four storms on record for March and April, those months definitely aren’t part of any sort of “season.” You could argue May 1, since we did have Ana a few years back hitting the US, but that would be adding extra resources. I think May 15 works well because it is before Memorial Day Weekend, and I think the US could do with more (and earlier) ocean preparedness. Any time there is a storm near the US, they get a lot of attention, and yet almost inevitably there are swimmer casualties. I think it makes sense starting warnings, and hopefully getting more info out there, in advance of the summer tourism season. That starts in mid May where I am from in New Jersey.
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