aspen wrote:cycloneye wrote:Crownweather Services is up with 16/8/4 and a repeat of 2017?
Hopefully the below-average forecast for the WCar holds. Central America really needs a break after Gamma, Delta, Zeta, Eta, and Iota all within 6 weeks.
I’m a bit skeptical about the FL peninsula being at or near the centre of the “high-risk” zone. The FL peninsula is always or nearly always listed as being “high-risk,” but more often than not tends to go unscathed, or nearly so. Of course, exceptions do happen, Irma among them, but I’ve seen—and made—far more “peninsular” seasonal forecasts than have actually verified. This year I think New England and the central Gulf Coast will be the top targets, not the FL peninsula. Given NMME’s forecast(s), a high concentration of early genesis off West Africa, along with poleward steering, means that any CV system that “deviates” westward is more likely to strike Long Island than, say, Miami or even Cape Hatteras. 1954 and 2011 also featured some impacts to the central Gulf Coast, so in that respect 2021 might resemble 2020, albeit on a lesser scale.