STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

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wxman57
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STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

#1 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:25 pm

I think there's at least a chance that the (initial) frontal low that develops offshore of the Carolinas is classified as a subtropical storm by the NHC next Tuesday. Only US impacts would be northerly wind 20-30 mph along the SC/NC coasts next Mon/Tue before it heads off to the east. Euro develops it closer to land than the GFS. Something to watch for next week. Maybe the NHC needs to start the season on March 15th? ;-)
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#2 Postby BadLarry95 » Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:46 pm

Ehh I’m hoping Ana can finally be a hurricane after 7 fails. Cat 1 ots like Chris 2018. So hold ana til June/july
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#3 Postby aspen » Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:55 pm

The 12z GFS has a decent TS/STS further NE than the Euro, GFS-Para, and CMC, which have a weak system of some kind off the coast of the Carolinas.

Crazy that there’s a decent chance of starting the season in March.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#4 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:27 pm

Wow, maybe I'll have Ana for my birthday? 8-) Of course she'd have to hang around for at least 4 days.

wxman57 wrote:Maybe the NHC needs to start the season on March 15th? ;-)


Let's not go nuts. :lol:
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#5 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:33 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Wow, maybe I'll have Ana for my birthday? 8-) Of course she'd have to hang around for at least 4 days.

wxman57 wrote:Maybe the NHC needs to start the season on March 15th? ;-)


Let's not go nuts. :lol:


January 1 would be a more logical start date than that...
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#6 Postby ClarCari » Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:32 am

Yeaaaa the GFS and Euro have been very consistent on something developing. At least a formidable low pressure system for this early in the year.
The main inhibitors are the wind shear across the whole Atlantic rn and time but this thing could very well beat odds.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#7 Postby Nuno » Thu Mar 18, 2021 11:54 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:Wow, maybe I'll have Ana for my birthday? 8-) Of course she'd have to hang around for at least 4 days.

wxman57 wrote:Maybe the NHC needs to start the season on March 15th? ;-)


Let's not go nuts. :lol:


January 1 would be a more logical start date than that...


Maybe you're joking, but with our ability to better detect storms who knows if pre-season storms will be a normal feature of hurricane season from now on.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#8 Postby Hurricane Mike » Thu Mar 18, 2021 2:56 pm

I hope not. I hate the early season and subtropical junk that just feeds into the media's climate change narrative.

The older I get, the more I miss seasons like when I was a teen like 2001 or 2003, when the "I" storms came in late September or October instead of late July. I feel like we name far too many systems.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#9 Postby tolakram » Thu Mar 18, 2021 3:15 pm

I don't think we need to change objective measurements based on media narrative. I read twitter too, I know a few are preaching it. Kind of tired of reading about it, honestly. Complaints are cheap, solutions not so much. The NHC's mission statement speaks for itself.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#10 Postby SteveM » Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:59 pm

Hurricane Mike wrote:I hope not. I hate the early season and subtropical junk that just feeds into the media's climate change narrative.


The media's what? I feel like that comment needs a little clarification.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#11 Postby aspen » Thu Mar 18, 2021 6:02 pm

SteveM wrote:
Hurricane Mike wrote:I hope not. I hate the early season and subtropical junk that just feeds into the media's climate change narrative.


The media's what? I feel like that comment needs a little clarification.

Essentially the media overreacting at pre-season slop and saying it’s evidence of climate change making hurricane seasons ridiculously active and destructive. With anthropogenic climate change is indeed having some impact on hurricane seasons (either a little or a lot depending on who you ask), just because there’s a pre-season storm doesn’t mean we’re in for another season on the level of 2005/2017/2020. March systems are rare, but they aren’t unheard of, and odds are there were more that were missed in years without recon or satellites.

But back on to this potential system, some of the models as of late have been having trouble getting the precursor low to concentrate into a smaller system that could develop. For example, the CMC shows a very broad low off the SEUS coast next week, and it’s unable to tighten up into a STC or TC.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#12 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Mar 18, 2021 6:25 pm

I wonder how many subtropical systems go undetected before June, especially before satellite and even after satellite.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#13 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Thu Mar 18, 2021 10:09 pm

Missed storms (unfortunately) aside, if we do manage to get a named subtropical storm this month, it would only be the second time in recorded history that a storm (tropical and/or subtropical) has formed during the month of March.

The other storm was known to have existed in 1908, moved primarily south-southwest, and brought some relatively minor impacts to islands in the Lesser Antilles, peaking as a Category 2 hurricane.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#14 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Mar 20, 2021 12:26 pm

most of the Meso models sure like the Idea of Ana..

just like last year early season systems ... keeping an eye on those meso models is a good idea..

WRF-ARW

45 to 50kt as it approaches the carolinas. NAM is similar as well as the other WRF and HRRR's

Image
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#15 Postby aspen » Sat Mar 20, 2021 1:30 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:most of the Meso models sure like the Idea of Ana..

just like last year early season systems ... keeping an eye on those meso models is a good idea..

WRF-ARW

45 to 50kt as it approaches the carolinas. NAM is similar as well as the other WRF and HRRR's

https://i.ibb.co/BPvzmHC/Capture.png

The meso models did a great job sniffing out Bertha a while before it actually formed, so I’m definitely gonna pay attention to their solutions for this possible system.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#16 Postby somethingfunny » Sat Mar 20, 2021 1:58 pm

Without doing any research to check, I feel like Ana is always a preseason storm.

Doing research now:

May 2015
August 2009
April 2003
June 1997
July 1991
July 1985
June 1979

So if this forms that'll be 3 of the past 4 Ana's being preseason storms. Luck of the draw :roll:
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#17 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Mar 21, 2021 10:55 pm

looks as though this may be trying to become a subtropical cyclone, but I'm not sure its going to have time to do so
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#18 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Mon Mar 22, 2021 3:31 am

Looks like it's coming together. Could 2021 begin in March?

Image
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#19 Postby aspen » Mon Mar 22, 2021 6:35 am

Only the WRF mesoscale model is showing this becoming a fully fledged TC (1004 mbar, 40-45 kt). However, all models are showing a smaller low pressure area breaking off from the main system to the north, so we might need to keep an eye on that for subtropical development too.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#20 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Mar 22, 2021 6:46 am

Got to hand it the MESO models again.

looks very sub tropical right now. Especially on radar.. convection has closed off around the center..

Image
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