STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#21 Postby wxman57 » Mon Mar 22, 2021 7:00 am

There is definitely a closed low center - that was never in question. The uncertainty is in whether the NHC would consider it subtropical and name it. Since they have not issued any special tropical outlooks, the odds of it getting named are low. It is certainly frontal low this morning.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast Next Week?

#22 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Mon Mar 22, 2021 8:10 am

Whatever it is I'm ready for it to go on its merry way. Been windy here the last 4 days. :flag: Does seem to slowly be becoming more tropical looking however. Might do something depending on how long it can hang around the Gulf Stream
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

#23 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Mar 22, 2021 8:16 am

It looks pretty good. Ever heard of a tornado outbreak becoming a tropical storm? Sure I have heard it the other way around constantly but tornadoes becoming a hurricane???. I know this will not be a hurricane but it sounds good to put it that way. Anyhow, convection is tightening but the low is still enlongated and attatched to a front to its east making it still a frontal low.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

#24 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Mar 22, 2021 8:28 am

This system is wrapping convection around the center. Just a little bit more and it will be subtropical or even tropical.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

#25 Postby NDG » Mon Mar 22, 2021 8:35 am

I don't see anything subtropical with this system, clearly frontal boundary attached to it.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

#26 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:02 am

NDG wrote:I don't see anything subtropical with this system, clearly frontal boundary attached to it.

Actually there is a closed low, some deep convection north of the low, and a partial CDO. The only thing keeping this from being a subtropical storm is a loosely attached front.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

#27 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:15 am

I am calling this subtropical now. My personal opinion BTW. Take note of this.
It appears that it is no longer frontal because warm dry air is closed off from the circulation so now the storm is subtropical. This is my reasoning.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

#28 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:31 am

Saved loop from COD Meteorology

Image
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

#29 Postby TROPICALCYCLONEALERT » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:41 am

Image
This is not a subtropical cyclone, not even close to one. The disturbance in question is riding along a trough, which is pretty evident on visible imagery this morning. There also are multiple frontal features, seen both on the satellite imagery (note the line of lightning emanating away from the non-tropical low, delineating a cold front) and the linked surface analysis.

Image
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

#30 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:43 am

I'm saying a 5-10% of developement of the Trough into a Subtropical System
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

#31 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Mar 22, 2021 10:04 am

TROPICALCYCLONEALERT wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733554252567281754/823566234729185300/radsfcus_exp_new.png
This is not a subtropical cyclone, not even close to one. The disturbance in question is riding along a trough, which is pretty evident on visible imagery this morning. There also are multiple frontal features, seen both on the satellite imagery (note the line of lightning emanating away from the non-tropical low, delineating a cold front) and the linked surface analysis.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733554252567281754/823566953884155994/GOES16_1km_vis_202103221155_27.png

Seems I was wrong. Should have noted the line of storms connected to it as well as the temperature contrast split down the front.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

#32 Postby wxman57 » Mon Mar 22, 2021 10:27 am

Iceresistance wrote:I'm saying a 5-10% of developement of the Trough into a Subtropical System


It's not a trough, it's a closed low. However, it's still attached to a cold front.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

#33 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Mar 22, 2021 10:30 am

wxman57 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:I'm saying a 5-10% of developement of the Trough into a Subtropical System


It's not a trough, it's a closed low. However, it's still attached to a cold front.


Good reason why I called a 5-10% chance for this one, there is a another area of low pressure further south of the closed low . . . (Which is the trough, I put out the wrong low pressure area as the trough :P :lol: )
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

#34 Postby aspen » Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:40 am

Yep, I see the closed low. It’s gonna have to break off from the front to become Ana, but I don’t know if it has nearly enough time.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

#35 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:57 am

I really want a march preseason storm
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

#36 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:58 am

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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

#37 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:Looks good on radar but...

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1374041907232342019

What if it decides to move over the Gulf Stream?
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

#38 Postby aspen » Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:22 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Looks good on radar but...

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1374041907232342019

What if it decides to move over the Gulf Stream?

It’s warmer...but not much warmer. Still well below 26C last time I checked.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

#39 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:23 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Looks good on radar but...

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1374041907232342019

What if it decides to move over the Gulf Stream?

The system is, for the most part, over the Gulf Stream. At this time of year, there is simply not enough warm water around without heavy amounts of atmospheric assistance for this thing to begin transitioning away from being a non-tropical low. Per the TT website, the current location of the system only has waters at around 22C, well below the usual 26-26.5C needed for tropical cyclogenesis.
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Re: STS Ana Off US East Coast this Week?

#40 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Mar 22, 2021 1:06 pm

But the water needed for subtropical development ARE there...
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