Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

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cycloneye
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Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:06 am

Ok folks,here is the poll you were waiting for,the forecast numbers poll for the 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season is here to forget about winter and talk about tropical weather and see how the season will be in terms of the numbers.I know that the situation with the Coronavirus is of big attention right now so the poll will start slow but hopefully things get better and the poll gets active as it nears it's end. Also, I have to mention that the power grid in Puerto Rico is not in good shape and that means there may be blackouts so I can't come to add the members rapidly but hopefully that does not occur.Below are a few tips about this poll:

1-You can post your numbers whenever you want between April 1 at 11:00 AM EDT and May 31 at Midnight EDT. when the poll closes.Also members can add a brief commentary if you want to do so about why you have the numbers you posted in the poll.

2-You can post a set of numbers and not change them anymore.In that case I will consider your numbers as final.

3-If you have preliminary numbers and later you are going to post final ones, those will be posted with the word Final. If by May 31 at Midnight EDT when the poll closes,there are still members that have preliminary numbers,I will consider them as final ones.

4-Unnamed Storms that may form will count as part of the numbers.

5-Any early named system(s) that may form before June 1rst count for the set of numbers,but normally the poll is for systems that form between June 1rst and November 30th.

6-If a system is upgraded from a Tropical Storm to a Hurricane in Post-Season Report,it will count for the final tally to see which members came close or nailed the numbers.

7-(Optional) The ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) numbers for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season will not count for the poll but if any member wants to post what they think about how the ACE will be you can do so.

8-Anyone can participate,from the pro mets,those who like Tropical Weather and like to track tropical systems,those who dont know a lot about tropical weather,and the newbies too are welcomed.I know that the numbers are not the most important thing in a season.The most important thing are where the storms will go,so it doesn't matter how many named storms form,as it only takes one system to do all the damage to an area.However,it's always very interesting to make a poll like this to see what the members think about the numbers game and how active or not the season will turn out.Let's see at the end of the season,how many members get close or tie what the 2019 season will offer.

9-If you see that you are not added to the list rapidly,dont worry because as soon I come on-line you will be added.I will be mainly on-line in the morning hours between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM to add the overnight participants.Also I will be on-line between 1:00 PM and 11 PM in and out daily so again,dont worry if you are not on the list rapidly. I may be off line at longer periods if power outages occur as the infractucture of our power company in PR is not great after Maria.Those who may post very high set of numbers or very low set of numbers dont freak out at all because that doesn't matter.So let's get this thing rolling guys and gals and let's see if this 2021 poll has a better participation than the 2020 one,when only 96 members posted their numbers. Or we can do much better if the poll reaches for the first time since these polls began in 2005 the 200+ participants mark.

Hyperlinks to past polls

2005

2006

2007

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2010

2011

2012

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2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020


List of participants

1- cycloneye = 17/8/4 ACE:148 Final

2- DestinHurricane = 20/7/3 ACE: 145 Final

3- DorkyMcDorkface =15/8/4 Preliminary

4- Iceresistance = 20/9/4 ACE: 170 Preliminary

5- crownweather = 16/8/4 ACE:150 Final

6- InfernoFlameCat = 18/9/4 ACE: 165 Final

7- eastcoastFL = 23/9/3 Final

8- CyclonicFury = 16/8/3 ACE: 135 Preliminary

9- DEMI-TITAN6 = 19/11/6 ACE: 174 Preliminary

10- Weather Dude= 16/9/3 ACE: 140 Preliminary

11- tolakram 22/8/3 ACE: 150 Final

12- aspen= 15/7/4 ACE: 145 Preliminary

13- TexasBreeze= 19/9/5 Final

14- Chris90= 16/9/3 Preliminary

15- Hurricaneman= 18/10/5 ACE: 175 Preliminary

16- wenniepatrol= 22/8/3 ACE: 140 Preliminary

17- JetFuel_SE= 18/10/6 ACE: 190 Preliminary

18- Kat5= 23/11/5 ACE:149 Preliminary

19- HurricaneEnzo= 21/8/4 ACE:170 Final

20- NotSparta= 16/8/3 ACE:120 Preliminary

21- TheAustinMan= 17/7/3 ACE: Preliminary

22- NXStumpy_Robothing= 20/8/5 ACE: 145 Preliminary

23- chaser1= 17/10/4 Preliminary

24- Bhuggs= 21/12/5 ACE 195 Final

25- vbhoutex 19/9/6 ACE: 165 Preliminary

26- ClarCari= 23/10/5 Preliminary

27- zal0phus 16/8/3 ACE: 190 Final

28- weathaguyry= 17/9/5 ACE: 198 Preliminary

29- galaxy401= 17/7/4 Preliminary

30- Nawtamet 13/7/3 Preliminary

31- Audrey2Katrina= 19/10/3 Preliminary

32- Shell Mound= 15/9/5 ACE: 170 Preliminary

33- Category5Kaiju= 20/9/5 ACE: 150 Preliminary

34- Gums= 20/8/4 Preliminary

35- Blown Away= 19/8/4 ACE: 155 Final

36- AnnularCane= 18/10/3 Preliminary

37- gulf701= 21/12/3 ACE:158 Final

38- AutoPenalti= 19/9/4 ACE:175 Final

39- Beef Stew= 18/8/4 ACE: 134 Preliminary

40- CrazyC83= 11/5/2 ACE: 73 Preliminary

41- tarheelprogrammer= 25/11/6 ACE: 270 Final


42- Andrey2Katrina=19/11/5 ACE: 165 Final

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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll

#2 Postby DestinHurricane » Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:18 am

20/7/3 with ACE 145. final
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll

#3 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:21 am

I guess I'm early for this one...

Named storms: 15
Hurricanes: 8
Major Hurricanes: 4

(preliminary)

EDIT - pretty late with this but here are the indicators I am basing this off of:

- Neutral conditions likely, should result in lower shear overall
- -AMM phase which should allow for the ITCZ to linger firmly in the NATL
- Another active West African Monsoon (WAM) to help both warm the tropical Atlantic by ASO and provide a strong wave train

Some question marks:

- Cool-neutral or warm-neutral ENSO?
- Will the ASW/WAM be impacted by the cooling Indian Ocean?
- Will the strong WAM allow for potent SAL outbreaks early in the season and a monsoonal traffic jam in the MDR by the peak like it did last year?
Last edited by DorkyMcDorkface on Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:14 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Poll is open)

#4 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:24 am

Preliminary UPDATE #1

20/9/4 with a ACE of 170

Factors:

    Many short-lived storms, because of higher wind shear like 2020, but at least 1-2 storms produce a ACE of 60 or higher . . .
    La Nina has a chance of a comeback, but I'm keeping it off for now . . .
    Giving a 40% chance of a CAT 5 storm . . .
    Highest landfall storm will be a CAT 4 somewhere along the Gulf Coast
    Seems like the Caribbean is becoming hostile for storms, but Cape Verde is looking more favorable
Last edited by Iceresistance on Thu Apr 01, 2021 5:25 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Poll is open)

#5 Postby crownweather » Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:41 am

Preliminary:

16 Named Storms
8 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes

ACE: 150.

The area I am most concerned about this season for a tropical storm or hurricane impact is a corridor from the northeastern Caribbean west-northwestward through the Bahamas, the eastern and central Gulf Coast, the Florida Peninsula and US Southeast Coast, including Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Poll is open)

#6 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:57 am

18/9/4 ACE 165 preliminary [Now Final]
More long tracked MDT storms this year. Above normal temperatures are present along with below average shear will most likely be present as well as a more supportive ITZC . Also a weaker Bermuda high will lessen chances of Caribbean tracked storms.
Last edited by InfernoFlameCat on Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:18 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Poll is open)

#7 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:58 am

23/9/3
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Poll is open)

#8 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Apr 01, 2021 11:13 am

16/8/3 ACE 135 Preliminary
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Poll is open)

#9 Postby DEMI-TITAN6 » Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:20 pm

Here's my Preliminary for '2021'

19 Named Storms
11 Hurricanes
6 Major
ACE = 174
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Poll is open)

#10 Postby Weather Dude » Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:00 pm

16/9/3 ACE 140 Preliminary
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Poll is open)

#11 Postby tolakram » Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:53 pm

22/8/3 - 150 ACE FINAL
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Poll is open)

#12 Postby aspen » Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:09 pm

Preliminary numbers:

14 NS
7 H
4 MH
ACE of 135 units

I don’t think we’re going to have a bonkers year like last year, and it doesn’t seem like the WCar will be nearly as favorable. However, this season is still likely to be above average...just not crazy active.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Poll is open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#13 Postby TexasBreeze » Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:24 pm

19/9/5 A:160
Hard to get consecutive excessive seasons in a row.
Agree with thoughts about the central and east Gulf and eastward being targeted more. Also Mexico. Looks like the southern plains and Texas will see a dominant ridge due to current worsening drought conditions.
Last edited by TexasBreeze on Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Poll is open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#14 Postby Chris90 » Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:51 pm

16/9/3 preliminary.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Poll is open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#15 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:55 pm

18\10\5 ace 175

preliminary
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:47 pm

It has been a great first day for the poll as 15 members have posted their numbers and that is up from the first day of the 2020 poll when 8 posted. I will go to sleep so those who may post numbers in the overnight I will add those in the morning.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#17 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:43 pm

22/8/3 ace 140 prelim
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#18 Postby JetFuel_SE » Fri Apr 02, 2021 2:34 am

Due to an El Niño being extremely unlikely, and the WAM seems like it's gonna strong this year too, I'm going with...
18 Named Storms
10 Hurricanes
6 Major Hurricanes
190 ACE

PRELIMINARY
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#19 Postby Kat5 » Fri Apr 02, 2021 3:31 am

23/11/5 Ace 149 prelim
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#20 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:12 am

21/8/4 ACE 170
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