Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#21 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:14 am

Added the overnight ones and now up to 19 participants.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#22 Postby NotSparta » Fri Apr 02, 2021 7:57 am

16/8/3 ACE 120 (preliminary)

Looks like another above average season on the way but there are a couple of fail modes, namely the WAM being too strong and El Niño appearing
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#23 Postby TheAustinMan » Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:33 am

17 / 7 / 3 with 125 ACE (preliminary)

Not very confident in these numbers, but we'll see how things look on the other side of the spring predictability barrier. I'll post a stats update on May 1 and probably update my guess with a final guess on May 31.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#24 Postby aspen » Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:50 am

cycloneye wrote:Added the overnight ones and now up to 19 participants.

Can you change mine to preliminary?
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#25 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:51 am

aspen wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Added the overnight ones and now up to 19 participants.

Can you change mine to preliminary?


Done.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#26 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Fri Apr 02, 2021 10:16 am

Guess I'll put down a preliminary guess before I inevitably end up forgetting to put down any prediction at all.

20 / 8 / 5 with 145 ACE (preliminary)

Still a little too early to tell, but if we do get a trend towards La Nina later on in the year like I think we will, I see a mix of 2008 and 2011 (with some 2010-esque tracks) in terms of the total storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, with a slight preference towards 2008's numbers due to the recent tendency of the Atlantic in regards with overperforming.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#27 Postby chaser1 » Fri Apr 02, 2021 10:32 am

Preliminary - 17/10/4

Minimal confidence:
-Buying into the idea that the Caribbean will be an unfavorable condition graveyard where few if any tropical cyclones will track or develop
-Rationalizing present signals regarding how ENSO or SAL will truly play into the dynamic conditions affecting genesis or over-all conditions impacting cyclone structure and continuity of strength

Fairly Confident of:
-fair number of poleward turning Central Atlantic systems
-an increasing number of inappropriate named "hybrid" or extremely short lived meso & Atlantic gale type cyclones
-August will pose the greatest landfalling threat to the Bahamas, Florida, and South Carolina

Completely Confident:
-ACE (and all objects) typically appear quite larger when viewed in side-view mirror
-The GFS will repeatedly forecast that Miami/Ft. Lauderdale will be directly hit by a major hurricane 7 or more days out
-That I will NOT discover bitcoins suddenly replacing the thick yellow layer of pollen covering my car each day
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#28 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 02, 2021 11:00 am

cycloneye wrote:Added the overnight ones and now up to 19 participants.

Can you please lower my ACE prediction to 170?
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#29 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 02, 2021 11:06 am

Iceresistance wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Added the overnight ones and now up to 19 participants.

Can you please lower my ACE prediction to 170?


Done.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#30 Postby Bhuggs » Fri Apr 02, 2021 11:55 am

21/12/5 ACE 195
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#31 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Apr 02, 2021 12:00 pm

19/9/6 165 preliminary
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#32 Postby aspen » Fri Apr 02, 2021 12:54 pm

Due to the extremely powerful rising branch over Africa forecast by the recently released model run, I’m going to slightly tweak my initial preliminary numbers:

15/7/4, 145 ACE
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#33 Postby ClarCari » Fri Apr 02, 2021 3:37 pm

Preliminary

I’ll use single numbers for my final so I can play fair. :wink:

NS: 21-24
H: 9-12
M: 4-7

In 2018 and 2019, despite less than stellar overall conditions in the Atlantic there was still alot of cyclone genesis those years, even if the amount of hurricanes and majors were average.
2020 only highlighted this.
Something in 2018 “flipped” that caused conditions to be more favorable for more named storms to form but not necessarily more hurricanes and majors which may explain why 2020 didn’t outpace 2005 in those two areas.
Right now I predict a 3-in-4 chance of exhausting the name list again this year.

Bold I know but again, I don’t think the thing that “flipped” for more names storms since 2018 has gone away yet at all. A 2006-like scenario is as unrealistic as another 2013 repeat.
Last edited by ClarCari on Fri Apr 02, 2021 3:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#34 Postby zal0phus » Fri Apr 02, 2021 3:47 pm

Prediction- 16/8/3, 190-200 ACE
I have a hunch this season will resemble 2003 or 2004 somewhat, not quite hyperactive in numbers but the storms it has will be powerful. I feel like there'll be yet another Cat 5 this year, but only one, and around Cape Verde season. Activity would be mostly in the earlier season from August to early October, dropping off afterwards. The names Kate and Odette strike me as being strong.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#35 Postby ClarCari » Fri Apr 02, 2021 3:54 pm

cycloneeye Mines were supposed to be prelim. Thanks!
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#36 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:06 pm

ClarCari wrote:cycloneeye Mines were supposed to be prelim. Thanks!


Use single numbers for preliminary.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#37 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:21 pm

ClarCari wrote:Preliminary

I’ll use single numbers for my final so I can play fair. :wink:

NS: 21-24
H: 9-12
M: 4-7

In 2018 and 2019, despite less than stellar overall conditions in the Atlantic there was still alot of cyclone genesis those years, even if the amount of hurricanes and majors were average.
2020 only highlighted this.
Something in 2018 “flipped” that caused conditions to be more favorable for more named storms to form but not necessarily more hurricanes and majors which may explain why 2020 didn’t outpace 2005 in those two areas.
Right now I predict a 3-in-4 chance of exhausting the name list again this year.

Bold I know but again, I don’t think the thing that “flipped” for more names storms since 2018 has gone away yet at all. A 2006-like scenario is as unrealistic as another 2013 repeat.


This is a single numbers poll. Which numbers you are going to have as preliminary?
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#38 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:44 pm

17/9/5, ACE: 198 (Preliminary)

I believe this year will not give us a break, with the WAM expected to be off the charts again like 2017-20. The conditions don’t seem as ridiculous as last year with the ENSO potentially going back towards neutral. One thing I have noticed is the Bermuda high being strung out N and E of its normal position throughout the last few weeks, which I fear could lead to a bad set of tracks near the East Coast from the Carolinas up north to the Canadian Maritimes.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#39 Postby ClarCari » Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:
ClarCari wrote:Preliminary

I’ll use single numbers for my final so I can play fair. :wink:

NS: 21-24
H: 9-12
M: 4-7

In 2018 and 2019, despite less than stellar overall conditions in the Atlantic there was still alot of cyclone genesis those years, even if the amount of hurricanes and majors were average.
2020 only highlighted this.
Something in 2018 “flipped” that caused conditions to be more favorable for more named storms to form but not necessarily more hurricanes and majors which may explain why 2020 didn’t outpace 2005 in those two areas.
Right now I predict a 3-in-4 chance of exhausting the name list again this year.

Bold I know but again, I don’t think the thing that “flipped” for more names storms since 2018 has gone away yet at all. A 2006-like scenario is as unrealistic as another 2013 repeat.


This is a single numbers poll. Which numbers you are going to have as preliminary?


I see zero reason why since preliminary won’t matter but I guess the middle like 23-10-5.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#40 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 02, 2021 5:04 pm

ClarCari wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
ClarCari wrote:Preliminary

I’ll use single numbers for my final so I can play fair. :wink:

NS: 21-24
H: 9-12
M: 4-7

In 2018 and 2019, despite less than stellar overall conditions in the Atlantic there was still alot of cyclone genesis those years, even if the amount of hurricanes and majors were average.
2020 only highlighted this.
Something in 2018 “flipped” that caused conditions to be more favorable for more named storms to form but not necessarily more hurricanes and majors which may explain why 2020 didn’t outpace 2005 in those two areas.
Right now I predict a 3-in-4 chance of exhausting the name list again this year.

Bold I know but again, I don’t think the thing that “flipped” for more names storms since 2018 has gone away yet at all. A 2006-like scenario is as unrealistic as another 2013 repeat.


This is a single numbers poll. Which numbers you are going to have as preliminary?


I see zero reason why since preliminary won’t matter but I guess the middle like 23-10-5.


Done.
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