2021 TCRs

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CyclonicFury
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Re: 2021 TCR's:

#41 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:51 am

My thoughts
Claudette: becomes post-tropical sooner
Danny: no change
Elsa: shorten duration as a hurricane over the Caribbean, keep second hurricane peak but adjust to a 21z non-synoptic point
Fred: remnant low sooner after Hispaniola
Grace: shorten the TD phase over the Caribbean (make a TS again), lower pressure at Yucatan landfall
Henri: Increase first peak to 65 kt
Ida: Increase peak to 135 kt
Julian: No change
Kate: No change (ASCAT had 40 kt winds and should not be downgraded)
Larry: No change
Mindy: No change
Nicholas: No change
Odette: Post-tropical sooner
Peter: Add second TD phase
Rose: Earlier genesis (already in BT)
Sam: Peak raised to 135 kt (already in BT)
Teresa: Earlier genesis, earlier dissipation
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Re: 2021 TCR's:

#42 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:15 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:My thoughts
Claudette: becomes post-tropical sooner
Danny: no change
Elsa: shorten duration as a hurricane over the Caribbean, keep second hurricane peak but adjust to a 21z non-synoptic point
Fred: remnant low sooner after Hispaniola
Grace: shorten the TD phase over the Caribbean (make a TS again), lower pressure at Yucatan landfall
Henri: Increase first peak to 65 kt
Ida: Increase peak to 135 kt
Julian: No change
Kate: No change (ASCAT had 40 kt winds and should not be downgraded)
Larry: No change
Mindy: No change
Nicholas: No change
Odette: Post-tropical sooner
Peter: Add second TD phase
Rose: Earlier genesis (already in BT)
Sam: Peak raised to 135 kt (already in BT)
Teresa: Earlier genesis, earlier dissipation


Thanks, I was just about to complain that everyone was leaving poor Teresa out! :)
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Re: 2021 TCR's:

#43 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:12 pm

Iceresistance wrote:My thoughts on the rest of the 2021 Atlantic TCR's
Kate - Down to 35 knots


Kate's 40kt intensity was supported by ASCAT, which if anything has a low bias.

As for my thoughts on possible changes to intensity, Henri was likely a hurricane for some amount of time in the days before the first recon mission, supported by microwave and radar; Larry and Sam will probably have more fluctuations in intensity, probably 5kt here and there; Odette should be deemed subtropical, though they don't often change that after the fact.
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Re: 2021 TCR's:

#44 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 30, 2021 5:19 pm

I forgot Teresa, no Intensity Changes on my Prediction on her TCR
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Re: 2021 TCR's:

#45 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 30, 2021 5:22 pm

Hammy wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:My thoughts on the rest of the 2021 Atlantic TCR's
Kate - Down to 35 knots


Kate's 40kt intensity was supported by ASCAT, which if anything has a low bias.

As for my thoughts on possible changes to intensity, Henri was likely a hurricane for some amount of time in the days before the first recon mission, supported by microwave and radar; Larry and Sam will probably have more fluctuations in intensity, probably 5kt here and there; Odette should be deemed subtropical, though they don't often change that after the fact.

Of course, I tend to not include ASCAT! :lol:
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: 2021 TCR's

#46 Postby ncforecaster89 » Fri Oct 01, 2021 2:18 am

Sciencerocks wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:
Teban54 wrote:No offense, but are you just trying too hard to argue that every landfalling storm needs to have its landfall intensity downgraded (Laura too)?

It doesn't matter how Nicholas produces Cat 1 winds at sea level for a minute. The fact that it did means that it was indeed a hurricane.
Also that 149mph sustained winds recorded past landfall for Ida support 130 knots for landfall.


I'd say the fact that there's a 149 mph sustain wind onland after landfall proves that it is probably stronger at landfall. Probably borderline cat5.(135knt?)


There seems to still be some confusion regarding the initial wind report by the New Orleans/Baton Rouge NWS that mistakenly assumed a 149 mph instantaneous wind gust, shown on the left side of a wind recorder, was a “sustained wind” value.

In reality, it wasn’t a one-minute sustained wind measurement. Please see accompanying tweet for clarification:

https://mobile.twitter.com/pppapin/stat ... 5902495750
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Re: 2021 TCR's:

#47 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Oct 01, 2021 10:53 am

In discussion 18, Stewart assessed Sam’s peak intensity as 135kt/929mb at 19-22z on September 26. IMO, the cyclone had already shown signs of deterioration by that point w/ hints of an ERC. Eye temperatures peaked at 24C around 16:30z. If the TCR recognizes an earlier peak I believe they will extrapolate a lower MSLP (like Patricia) in the mid 920s. This would support 140-145kt through wind pressure relationships. That’s the only way I see Sam getting a cat 5 upgrade for its first peak.
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Re: 2021 TCR's:

#48 Postby MarioProtVI » Fri Oct 01, 2021 2:34 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:In discussion 18, Stewart assessed Sam’s peak intensity as 135kt/929mb at 19-22z on September 26. IMO, the cyclone had already shown signs of deterioration by that point w/ hints of an ERC. Eye temperatures peaked at 24C around 16:30z. If the TCR recognizes an earlier peak I believe they will extrapolate a lower MSLP (like Patricia) in the mid 920s. This would support 140-145kt through wind pressure relationships. That’s the only way I see Sam getting a cat 5 upgrade for its first peak.

Jose 2017 had almost similar reasoning for a possible upgrade and NHC didn’t upgrade based on extrapolation (the C5 SFMRs were recorded after the strucrute had begun degrading - looked it’s best around 18z). I think it is most likely the NHC follows suit here and keeps Sam at 135 kt (taking into account their hesitancy with C5s recently).
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Re: 2021 TCR's:

#49 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 01, 2021 3:03 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:In discussion 18, Stewart assessed Sam’s peak intensity as 135kt/929mb at 19-22z on September 26. IMO, the cyclone had already shown signs of deterioration by that point w/ hints of an ERC. Eye temperatures peaked at 24C around 16:30z. If the TCR recognizes an earlier peak I believe they will extrapolate a lower MSLP (like Patricia) in the mid 920s. This would support 140-145kt through wind pressure relationships. That’s the only way I see Sam getting a cat 5 upgrade for its first peak.

Jose 2017 had almost similar reasoning for a possible upgrade and NHC didn’t upgrade based on extrapolation (the C5 SFMRs were recorded after the strucrute had begun degrading - looked it’s best around 18z). I think it is most likely the NHC follows suit here and keeps Sam at 135 kt (taking into account their hesitancy with C5s recently).

I think Sam is more likely to get an upgrade than Jose was because as I mentioned in the intense TCs thread, Jose only maintained a W ring for an hour, while Sam had a full or nearly complete W ring with a CMG eye for 6-10+ hours, and this was before it started degrading and recon found 929mb. An extrapolated peak of 926-927mb would be enough to support 140kt based off of the KCZ wind-pressure relationship, and the T#7.0 appearance on Dvorak would help too.
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Re: 2021 TCR's:

#50 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Oct 01, 2021 3:34 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:Jose 2017 had almost similar reasoning for a possible upgrade and NHC didn’t upgrade based on extrapolation (the C5 SFMRs were recorded after the strucrute had begun degrading - looked it’s best around 18z). I think it is most likely the NHC follows suit here and keeps Sam at 135 kt (taking into account their hesitancy with C5s recently).

The NHC has been hesitant mostly because SFMR is unreliable at those intensities. I agree they will probably hold Sam at 135kt. But 140kt Jose was a very subjective call and they are not keen on making big leaps like that. Jose's MSLP would have to be dropped 10mb to support cat 5 w/ KZC. Sam's 929 already supports 140kt, and a few mb below that comes out to 145kt. So there is a stronger case there with much less extrapolation required.
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Re: 2021 TCR's:

#51 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Oct 04, 2021 10:41 am

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Re: 2021 TCR's:

#52 Postby Ubuntwo » Thu Oct 07, 2021 5:32 pm

Data points surrounding Sam's first and second peaks:
Image

Image

FL winds were far higher during the second operational peak, but SFMR and reduced dropsondes were considerably lower. Could suggest poorer mixing, less mesovort activity, or a little bit of both.

On 9/30, three planes sampled Sam. FL winds were lower than on 10/1. But SFMR was higher - at least 131kt. While flagged, forecaster Blake offers these obs credibility.
 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1444003126416138244




Early on 9/30 (between recon flights) a SAR pass measured peak winds of 133kt. Quite the symmetric structure.
Image

So I'm thinking reanalysis will extend the secondary peak back in time. Possibly bring it up to 135kt.

There was also another pass which caught Sam's third peak, during the high latitude ERC. 114kt winds.
Image

I'm not sure how much the NHC weighs SAR returns. Should still be enough to get that last peak bumped up >=100kt.

In general reanalysis will probably 'unsmooth' best track w/ more fluctuations up and down. Sam may have dipped below major intensity during the first ERC.

As for the first peak - it will probably remain @ 135kt. Anything higher would require extrapolation or reconsideration of disregarded mesovort data. That said, has anyone seen a more impressive dropsonde in a cat 4?
Image
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Re: 2021 TCR's:

#53 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 07, 2021 5:46 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:Data points surrounding Sam's first and second peaks:
https://i.imgur.com/giibL1c.png

https://i.imgur.com/Iya9mGT.png

FL winds were far higher during the second operational peak, but SFMR and reduced dropsondes were considerably lower. Could suggest poorer mixing, less mesovort activity, or a little bit of both.

On 9/30, three planes sampled Sam. FL winds were lower than on 10/1. But SFMR was higher - at least 131kt. While flagged, forecaster Blake offers these obs credibility.
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1444003126416138244

Early on 9/30 (between recon flights) a SAR pass measured peak winds of 133kt. Quite the symmetric structure.
https://i.imgur.com/lBWEEYH.png

So I'm thinking reanalysis will extend the secondary peak back in time. Possibly bring it up to 135kt.

There was also another pass which caught Sam's third peak, during the high latitude ERC. 114kt winds.
https://i.imgur.com/BpDwG5l.png

I'm not sure how much the NHC weighs SAR returns. Should still be enough to get that last peak bumped up >=100kt.

In general reanalysis will probably 'unsmooth' best track w/ more fluctuations up and down. Sam may have dipped below major intensity during the first ERC.

As first the first peak - it will probably remain @ 135kt. Anything higher would require extrapolation or reconsideration of disregarded mesovort data. That said, has anyone seen a more impressive dropsonde in a cat 4?
https://i.imgur.com/fr4pVZP.png

140kt for Sam’s first peak is possible if they extrapolate the pressure to be a few mbar lower than recon’s first pass Sunday night and apply the KCZ method. Looking at the chart of intensity estimates for Sam’s first peak, a blend of 90% FL reduction, SFMR, and dropsonde reduction could support winds as high as 135 kt for 00z 9/26, so it would not have taken much for Sam to reach 140+ kt in the 12-18 hours between that pass and the start of the first EWRC. Sam’s structural improvement by 12-18z 9/26 and the 929mb drop at the start of the EWRC would suggest it had both higher winds and a lower pressure during the huge recon gap.

Also, that dropsonde is nuts lol. It has even higher surface winds than the final eyewall drop when Eta was pulling raw T#s of 8.0-8-5.
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Re: 2021 TCR's:

#54 Postby ncforecaster89 » Thu Oct 07, 2021 10:19 pm

aspen wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:Data points surrounding Sam's first and second peaks:
https://i.imgur.com/giibL1c.png

https://i.imgur.com/Iya9mGT.png

FL winds were far higher during the second operational peak, but SFMR and reduced dropsondes were considerably lower. Could suggest poorer mixing, less mesovort activity, or a little bit of both.

On 9/30, three planes sampled Sam. FL winds were lower than on 10/1. But SFMR was higher - at least 131kt. While flagged, forecaster Blake offers these obs credibility.
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1444003126416138244

Early on 9/30 (between recon flights) a SAR pass measured peak winds of 133kt. Quite the symmetric structure.
https://i.imgur.com/lBWEEYH.png

So I'm thinking reanalysis will extend the secondary peak back in time. Possibly bring it up to 135kt.

There was also another pass which caught Sam's third peak, during the high latitude ERC. 114kt winds.
https://i.imgur.com/BpDwG5l.png

I'm not sure how much the NHC weighs SAR returns. Should still be enough to get that last peak bumped up >=100kt.

In general reanalysis will probably 'unsmooth' best track w/ more fluctuations up and down. Sam may have dipped below major intensity during the first ERC.

As first the first peak - it will probably remain @ 135kt. Anything higher would require extrapolation or reconsideration of disregarded mesovort data. That said, has anyone seen a more impressive dropsonde in a cat 4?
https://i.imgur.com/fr4pVZP.png

140kt for Sam’s first peak is possible if they extrapolate the pressure to be a few mbar lower than recon’s first pass Sunday night and apply the KCZ method. Looking at the chart of intensity estimates for Sam’s first peak, a blend of 90% FL reduction, SFMR, and dropsonde reduction could support winds as high as 135 kt for 00z 9/26, so it would not have taken much for Sam to reach 140+ kt in the 12-18 hours between that pass and the start of the first EWRC. Sam’s structural improvement by 12-18z 9/26 and the 929mb drop at the start of the EWRC would suggest it had both higher winds and a lower pressure during the huge recon gap.

Also, that dropsonde is nuts lol. It has even higher surface winds than the final eyewall drop when Eta was pulling raw T#s of 8.0-8-5.


As I noted in a previous post, I’d lean towards a 140 kt peak as the highest 700 mb FLWs support an intensity of 135-140 kt. This estimate is taking into consideration that Sam was likely a little bit stronger prior to the arrival of Recon.

Those 161 kt WL150 winds, listed on the aforementioned dropsonde, equate to a MSW of 135 kt. It’s going to ultimately be a subjective call between 135 and 140 kt by the authors of the TCR.
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Re: 2021 TCR's:

#55 Postby Teban54 » Tue Oct 12, 2021 1:48 pm

I think we can safely say Pamela's time as a hurricane, or at least during its first peak, will be reduced in the TCR. No way this is 70 kt right now based on recon, though the NHC has a pretty good reason for keeping it as a hurricane operationally.

Edit: 18z best track already down to 60 kts right after this post. A case can be made to reduce the 15z or even 12z intensities too.
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Re: 2021 TCR's:

#56 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Oct 12, 2021 2:45 pm

If I had to make a change, I would probably upgrade Invest 92L (the surface trough near the Carolina coast monitored by the NHC) into an unnamed subtropical storm. It featured a closed circulation, and it had convection associated with it; it was not a completely naked swirl.
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Re: 2021 TCR's:

#57 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:55 am

The Tropical Storm Danny report is up.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121883&p=2906700#p2906700
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Re: 2021 TCR's:

#58 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:The Tropical Storm Danny report is up.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121883&p=2906700#p2906700



Looks like they moved formation back about 20 hours to around 72 west....I agree with it as this certainly formed far earlier then was upgraded.
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Re: 2021 TCR's

#59 Postby MHC Tracking » Tue Oct 19, 2021 12:24 pm

My guesses for the remaining 2021 NATL TCRs:
Ana: Done
Bill: Done
Claudette: Genesis pushed forward 3-6 hours, dissipation later
Danny: Done
Elsa: Initial hurricane phase extended a bit outside the Caribbean, shortened a bit near Haiti, opens into a wave near Jamaica (Sfc obs showed a sharp trough, so did recon I believe), C1 phase in the Gulf cut, FL landfall increased to 60 kt
Fred: Time as a remnant low increased by upwards of 24 hours
Grace: Opens into a wave south of Hispaniola, Yucatan peak upped to 80 kt and the pressure lowered to the observed 978 (80 kt is the reverse CKZ for 978 mbars), the main peak may be changed based on the upcoming Morgerman data from the Veracruz landfall
Henri: Preliminary peak upped to 65 kt, Rhode Island landfall upped to 55 kt
Ida: Cuba landfall upped to 70 kt, pressure at the main peak decreased to 928 mbars
Julian: Stays pretty much the same
Kate: Maybe a primary peak as a 35 kt TS added based on ASCAT data which showed 1 35 kt barb about 12 hours after the designation
Larry: Maybe some adjustments early on in its life and an increase in winds at the Newfoundland landfall to 75 kt based on radar support
Mindy: Tropical duration will likely be shortened by 12 hours or so
Nicholas: Same as above, 4 centers in a disturbance isn't the definition of a TC, otherwise no changes
Odette: Same as above and for the exact same reason
Peter: First lifespan will likely get lengthened a bit near the beginning and shortened near the end, might see a secondary phase as a TD added
Rose: Will likely have its early lifespan extended by 6 or so hours
Sam: 1st peak (the one on the 25th) will likely be upped to 130 kt, 2nd peak (on the 26th) could be upped to 140 depending on data interpretation of the recon gap, pressure will probably be decreased regardless, the final peak at 40N will probably see an upgrade to 95-100 kt based on several T5.5 readings with a known dvorak underestimation bias at high latitudes
Teresa: Dissipates 6-12 hours sooner
Victor: Dissipates a bit sooner
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Re: 2021 TCR's

#60 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 19, 2021 3:13 pm

And the Josh data is out for Grace in Veracruz landfall. Pressure 981 mbs and he does not recommend upping to cat 4.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1450549479531171840


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