2021 TCRs

[Ubuntwo]

TS Bill report is up.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121883&p=2906700#p2906700

Looks like peak has been boosted from 50kt to 55kt. Pressure from 998 to 992.

[aspen]

TS Bill report is up.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121883&p=2906700#p2906700

Looks like peak has been boosted from 50kt to 55kt. Pressure from 998 to 992.

Lol I said in my earlier post that Bill wouldn’t get any adjustments, and less than 24 hours later the NHC proved me wrong

[Teban54]

Here are all the post-season TCR adjustments I think are possible so far, based on what other users and pro mets said during the storm’s lifetime and what was observed:

Updates:
- Sam might see downward adjustments in intensity for the past few days since it collapsed. NHC seems to be a bit generous during Sam's restrengthening phase and they are sometimes not even supported by recon. I could see a -5 kt change to some, if not most, of the advisories.
- Peter might be officially recognized as having regenerated recently. It has been firing convection at times but they seem to be on and off. Would be borderline either way.

[Shell Mound]

Here are all the post-season TCR adjustments I think are possible so far, based on what other users and pro mets said during the storm’s lifetime and what was observed:

My personal intimations and/or suggestions:

Claudette: controversially, remove from database
Danny: no change
Elsa: downgrade → TS near Barbados (H-force winds were elevated; see this), remove H status in Gulf
Fred: remove TS status while over Caribbean
Grace: delay TS stage, ↑ MSW at LF on Yucatán from 70 → 80 kt
Henri: retain peak, but shorten time spent as a H
Ida: ↑ Cuban MSW from 70 → 75 kt, retain peak of 130 kt, adjust Louisianan MSW ↓ to 115 kt (reasoning)
Kate: ↓ peak MSW → 35 kt
Julian: no change
Larry: ↓ peak MSW → 105 kt, remove much of its time spent as a MH
Mindy: ↑ MSW at LF → 50 kt
Nicholas: ↓ peak MSW → 55 kt (recon never supported H status, 66-kt observation at Matagorda was likely transient)
Odette: remove from database
Peter: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Rose: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Sam: ↑ MSW to 125 kt at 06:00 UTC on 25 September, ↑ peak MSW → 145 kt, reduce all “official” intensities thereafter

[Teban54]

Here are all the post-season TCR adjustments I think are possible so far, based on what other users and pro mets said during the storm’s lifetime and what was observed:

My personal intimations and/or suggestions:

Claudette: controversially, remove from database
Danny: no change
Elsa: downgrade → TS near Barbados (H-force winds were elevated; see this), remove H status in Gulf
Fred: remove TS status while over Caribbean
Grace: delay TS stage, ↑ MSW at LF on Yucatán from 70 → 80 kt
Henri: retain peak, but shorten time spent as a H
Ida: ↑ Cuban MSW from 70 → 75 kt, retain peak of 130 kt, adjust Louisianan MSW ↓ to 115 kt (reasoning)
Kate: ↓ peak MSW → 35 kt
Julian: no change
Larry: ↓ peak MSW → 105 kt, remove much of its time spent as a MH
Mindy: ↑ MSW at LF → 50 kt
Nicholas: ↓ peak MSW → 55 kt (recon never supported H status, 66-kt observation at Matagorda was likely transient)
Odette: remove from database
Peter: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Rose: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Sam: ↑ MSW to 125 kt at 06:00 UTC on 25 September, ↑ peak MSW → 145 kt, reduce all “official” intensities thereafter

No offense, but are you just trying too hard to argue that every landfalling storm needs to have its landfall intensity downgraded (Laura too)?

[DioBrando]

Here are all the post-season TCR adjustments I think are possible so far, based on what other users and pro mets said during the storm’s lifetime and what was observed:

My personal intimations and/or suggestions:

Claudette: controversially, remove from database
Danny: no change
Elsa: downgrade → TS near Barbados (H-force winds were elevated; see this), remove H status in Gulf
Fred: remove TS status while over Caribbean
Grace: delay TS stage, ↑ MSW at LF on Yucatán from 70 → 80 kt
Henri: retain peak, but shorten time spent as a H
Ida: ↑ Cuban MSW from 70 → 75 kt, retain peak of 130 kt, adjust Louisianan MSW ↓ to 115 kt (reasoning)
Kate: ↓ peak MSW → 35 kt
Julian: no change
Larry: ↓ peak MSW → 105 kt, remove much of its time spent as a MH
Mindy: ↑ MSW at LF → 50 kt
Nicholas: ↓ peak MSW → 55 kt (recon never supported H status, 66-kt observation at Matagorda was likely transient)
Odette: remove from database
Peter: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Rose: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Sam: ↑ MSW to 125 kt at 06:00 UTC on 25 September, ↑ peak MSW → 145 kt, reduce all “official” intensities thereafter

No offense, but are you just trying too hard to argue that every landfalling storm needs to have its landfall intensity downgraded (Laura too)?

I was just about to write the same thing acutally

[InfernoFlameCat]

Here are all the post-season TCR adjustments I think are possible so far, based on what other users and pro mets said during the storm’s lifetime and what was observed:

My personal intimations and/or suggestions:

Claudette: controversially, remove from database
Danny: no change
Elsa: downgrade → TS near Barbados (H-force winds were elevated; see this), remove H status in Gulf
Fred: remove TS status while over Caribbean
Grace: delay TS stage, ↑ MSW at LF on Yucatán from 70 → 80 kt
Henri: retain peak, but shorten time spent as a H
Ida: ↑ Cuban MSW from 70 → 75 kt, retain peak of 130 kt, adjust Louisianan MSW ↓ to 115 kt (reasoning)
Kate: ↓ peak MSW → 35 kt
Julian: no change
Larry: ↓ peak MSW → 105 kt, remove much of its time spent as a MH
Mindy: ↑ MSW at LF → 50 kt
Nicholas: ↓ peak MSW → 55 kt (recon never supported H status, 66-kt observation at Matagorda was likely transient)
Odette: remove from database
Peter: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Rose: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Sam: ↑ MSW to 125 kt at 06:00 UTC on 25 September, ↑ peak MSW → 145 kt, reduce all “official” intensities thereafter

No offense, but are you just trying too hard to argue that every landfalling storm needs to have its landfall intensity downgraded (Laura too)?

It doesn't matter how Nicholas produces Cat 1 winds at sea level for a minute. The fact that it did means that it was indeed a hurricane.
Also that 149mph sustained winds recorded past landfall for Ida support 130 knots for landfall.

[ElectricStorm]

Here are all the post-season TCR adjustments I think are possible so far, based on what other users and pro mets said during the storm’s lifetime and what was observed:

My personal intimations and/or suggestions:

Claudette: controversially, remove from database
Danny: no change
Elsa: downgrade → TS near Barbados (H-force winds were elevated; see this), remove H status in Gulf
Fred: remove TS status while over Caribbean
Grace: delay TS stage, ↑ MSW at LF on Yucatán from 70 → 80 kt
Henri: retain peak, but shorten time spent as a H
Ida: ↑ Cuban MSW from 70 → 75 kt, retain peak of 130 kt, adjust Louisianan MSW ↓ to 115 kt (reasoning)
Kate: ↓ peak MSW → 35 kt
Julian: no change
Larry: ↓ peak MSW → 105 kt, remove much of its time spent as a MH
Mindy: ↑ MSW at LF → 50 kt
Nicholas: ↓ peak MSW → 55 kt (recon never supported H status, 66-kt observation at Matagorda was likely transient)
Odette: remove from database
Peter: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Rose: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Sam: ↑ MSW to 125 kt at 06:00 UTC on 25 September, ↑ peak MSW → 145 kt, reduce all “official” intensities thereafter

I'd like to see your reasoning for all of those downgrades. It seems like you're just randomly downgrading things, even though nothing actually supports a downgrade.

[CyclonicFury]

My personal intimations and/or suggestions:

Claudette: controversially, remove from database
Danny: no change
Elsa: downgrade → TS near Barbados (H-force winds were elevated; see this), remove H status in Gulf
Fred: remove TS status while over Caribbean
Grace: delay TS stage, ↑ MSW at LF on Yucatán from 70 → 80 kt
Henri: retain peak, but shorten time spent as a H
Ida: ↑ Cuban MSW from 70 → 75 kt, retain peak of 130 kt, adjust Louisianan MSW ↓ to 115 kt (reasoning)
Kate: ↓ peak MSW → 35 kt
Julian: no change
Larry: ↓ peak MSW → 105 kt, remove much of its time spent as a MH
Mindy: ↑ MSW at LF → 50 kt
Nicholas: ↓ peak MSW → 55 kt (recon never supported H status, 66-kt observation at Matagorda was likely transient)
Odette: remove from database
Peter: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Rose: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Sam: ↑ MSW to 125 kt at 06:00 UTC on 25 September, ↑ peak MSW → 145 kt, reduce all “official” intensities thereafter

No offense, but are you just trying too hard to argue that every landfalling storm needs to have its landfall intensity downgraded (Laura too)?

It doesn't matter how Nicholas produces Cat 1 winds at sea level for a minute. The fact that it did means that it was indeed a hurricane.
Also that 149mph sustained winds recorded past landfall for Ida support 130 knots for landfall.

Not to mention, recon did find a peak 850mb flight level wind of 80 kt, which using an 80% reduction (typical for that level), supports 64 kt. That mission also found a peak SFMR wind of 63 kt. Winds were increasing on each pass before recon left, as well. Nicholas has a pretty clear cut case for a 65 kt intensity, IMO.

[aspen]

My personal intimations and/or suggestions:

Claudette: controversially, remove from database
Danny: no change
Elsa: downgrade → TS near Barbados (H-force winds were elevated; see this), remove H status in Gulf
Fred: remove TS status while over Caribbean
Grace: delay TS stage, ↑ MSW at LF on Yucatán from 70 → 80 kt
Henri: retain peak, but shorten time spent as a H
Ida: ↑ Cuban MSW from 70 → 75 kt, retain peak of 130 kt, adjust Louisianan MSW ↓ to 115 kt (reasoning)
Kate: ↓ peak MSW → 35 kt
Julian: no change
Larry: ↓ peak MSW → 105 kt, remove much of its time spent as a MH
Mindy: ↑ MSW at LF → 50 kt
Nicholas: ↓ peak MSW → 55 kt (recon never supported H status, 66-kt observation at Matagorda was likely transient)
Odette: remove from database
Peter: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Rose: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Sam: ↑ MSW to 125 kt at 06:00 UTC on 25 September, ↑ peak MSW → 145 kt, reduce all “official” intensities thereafter

No offense, but are you just trying too hard to argue that every landfalling storm needs to have its landfall intensity downgraded (Laura too)?

It doesn't matter how Nicholas produces Cat 1 winds at sea level for a minute. The fact that it did means that it was indeed a hurricane.
Also that 149mph sustained winds recorded past landfall for Ida support 130 knots for landfall.

There has been debate over whether or not the 149mph measurement counts as surface sustained winds, because the vessel they were recorded on was near that 10m defining boundary. However, the 170+ mph gust from the same vessel suggests there were 130 kt surface winds. Winds in the NE quadrant during a center pass about 1-2 hours before landfall also supported a peak of 130-135 kt, and they were multiple instances of FL winds exceeding 137 kt in the last few hours before landfall.

[MarioProtVI]

Here are all the post-season TCR adjustments I think are possible so far, based on what other users and pro mets said during the storm’s lifetime and what was observed:

My personal intimations and/or suggestions:

Claudette: controversially, remove from database
Danny: no change
Elsa: downgrade → TS near Barbados (H-force winds were elevated; see this), remove H status in Gulf
Fred: remove TS status while over Caribbean
Grace: delay TS stage, ↑ MSW at LF on Yucatán from 70 → 80 kt
Henri: retain peak, but shorten time spent as a H
Ida: ↑ Cuban MSW from 70 → 75 kt, retain peak of 130 kt, adjust Louisianan MSW ↓ to 115 kt (reasoning)
Kate: ↓ peak MSW → 35 kt
Julian: no change
Larry: ↓ peak MSW → 105 kt, remove much of its time spent as a MH
Mindy: ↑ MSW at LF → 50 kt
Nicholas: ↓ peak MSW → 55 kt (recon never supported H status, 66-kt observation at Matagorda was likely transient)
Odette: remove from database
Peter: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Rose: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Sam: ↑ MSW to 125 kt at 06:00 UTC on 25 September, ↑ peak MSW → 145 kt, reduce all “official” intensities thereafter

Claudette was a TC off the east coast, Elsa was clearly a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean/western MDR, there was recon support for TS Fred in the Caribbean, data clearly supported 130 kt landfall for Ida (and arguably there is evidence for a 135 kt peak), Larry was evidently a MH for most of the time it was given the annular characteristics, not sure where 50 kt Mindy comes from, Nicholas has clear support for hurricane intensity as said above and Sam only has enough evidence to support 135 kt given NHC’s reluctance with C5 (it will most likely get the Jose treatment). I’m sorry but these are just really bad takes on the intensities here.

[aspen]

Here are all the post-season TCR adjustments I think are possible so far, based on what other users and pro mets said during the storm’s lifetime and what was observed:

My personal intimations and/or suggestions:

Claudette: controversially, remove from database
Danny: no change
Elsa: downgrade → TS near Barbados (H-force winds were elevated; see this), remove H status in Gulf
Fred: remove TS status while over Caribbean
Grace: delay TS stage, ↑ MSW at LF on Yucatán from 70 → 80 kt
Henri: retain peak, but shorten time spent as a H
Ida: ↑ Cuban MSW from 70 → 75 kt, retain peak of 130 kt, adjust Louisianan MSW ↓ to 115 kt (reasoning)
Kate: ↓ peak MSW → 35 kt
Julian: no change
Larry: ↓ peak MSW → 105 kt, remove much of its time spent as a MH
Mindy: ↑ MSW at LF → 50 kt
Nicholas: ↓ peak MSW → 55 kt (recon never supported H status, 66-kt observation at Matagorda was likely transient)
Odette: remove from database
Peter: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Rose: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Sam: ↑ MSW to 125 kt at 06:00 UTC on 25 September, ↑ peak MSW → 145 kt, reduce all “official” intensities thereafter

Claudette was a TC off the east coast, Elsa was clearly a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean/western MDR, there was recon support for TS Fred in the Caribbean, data clearly supported 130 kt landfall for Ida (and arguably there is evidence for a 135 kt peak), Larry was evidently a MH for most of the time it was given the annular characteristics, not sure where 50 kt Mindy comes from, Nicholas has clear support for hurricane intensity as said above and Sam only has enough evidence to support 135 kt given NHC’s reluctance with C5 (it will most likely get the Jose treatment). I’m sorry but these are just really bad takes on the intensities here.

Going off of satellite/Dvorak presentation, Sam has a better argument for Cat 5 intensity than Jose did. I mentioned in the Intense TCs thread that Jose only had a complete W ring for less than an hour, while Sam had a much thicker W ring for something like 6 hours.

[TROPICALCYCLONEALERT]

Here are all the post-season TCR adjustments I think are possible so far, based on what other users and pro mets said during the storm’s lifetime and what was observed:

My personal intimations and/or suggestions:

Claudette: controversially, remove from database
Danny: no change
Elsa: downgrade → TS near Barbados (H-force winds were elevated; see this), remove H status in Gulf
Fred: remove TS status while over Caribbean
Grace: delay TS stage, ↑ MSW at LF on Yucatán from 70 → 80 kt
Henri: retain peak, but shorten time spent as a H
Ida: ↑ Cuban MSW from 70 → 75 kt, retain peak of 130 kt, adjust Louisianan MSW ↓ to 115 kt (reasoning)
Kate: ↓ peak MSW → 35 kt
Julian: no change
Larry: ↓ peak MSW → 105 kt, remove much of its time spent as a MH
Mindy: ↑ MSW at LF → 50 kt
Nicholas: ↓ peak MSW → 55 kt (recon never supported H status, 66-kt observation at Matagorda was likely transient)
Odette: remove from database
Peter: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Rose: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Sam: ↑ MSW to 125 kt at 06:00 UTC on 25 September, ↑ peak MSW → 145 kt, reduce all “official” intensities thereafter

Worst set of opinions I’ve seen on this forum in a while.

[Hurricane Jed]

Here are all the post-season TCR adjustments I think are possible so far, based on what other users and pro mets said during the storm’s lifetime and what was observed:

My personal intimations and/or suggestions:

Claudette: controversially, remove from database
Danny: no change
Elsa: downgrade → TS near Barbados (H-force winds were elevated; see this), remove H status in Gulf
Fred: remove TS status while over Caribbean
Grace: delay TS stage, ↑ MSW at LF on Yucatán from 70 → 80 kt
Henri: retain peak, but shorten time spent as a H
Ida: ↑ Cuban MSW from 70 → 75 kt, retain peak of 130 kt, adjust Louisianan MSW ↓ to 115 kt (reasoning)
Kate: ↓ peak MSW → 35 kt
Julian: no change
Larry: ↓ peak MSW → 105 kt, remove much of its time spent as a MH
Mindy: ↑ MSW at LF → 50 kt
Nicholas: ↓ peak MSW → 55 kt (recon never supported H status, 66-kt observation at Matagorda was likely transient)
Odette: remove from database
Peter: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Rose: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Sam: ↑ MSW to 125 kt at 06:00 UTC on 25 September, ↑ peak MSW → 145 kt, reduce all “official” intensities thereafter

*facepalm*

[Sciencerocks]

My personal intimations and/or suggestions:

Claudette: controversially, remove from database
Danny: no change
Elsa: downgrade → TS near Barbados (H-force winds were elevated; see this), remove H status in Gulf
Fred: remove TS status while over Caribbean
Grace: delay TS stage, ↑ MSW at LF on Yucatán from 70 → 80 kt
Henri: retain peak, but shorten time spent as a H
Ida: ↑ Cuban MSW from 70 → 75 kt, retain peak of 130 kt, adjust Louisianan MSW ↓ to 115 kt (reasoning)
Kate: ↓ peak MSW → 35 kt
Julian: no change
Larry: ↓ peak MSW → 105 kt, remove much of its time spent as a MH
Mindy: ↑ MSW at LF → 50 kt
Nicholas: ↓ peak MSW → 55 kt (recon never supported H status, 66-kt observation at Matagorda was likely transient)
Odette: remove from database
Peter: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Rose: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Sam: ↑ MSW to 125 kt at 06:00 UTC on 25 September, ↑ peak MSW → 145 kt, reduce all “official” intensities thereafter

No offense, but are you just trying too hard to argue that every landfalling storm needs to have its landfall intensity downgraded (Laura too)?

It doesn't matter how Nicholas produces Cat 1 winds at sea level for a minute. The fact that it did means that it was indeed a hurricane.
Also that 149mph sustained winds recorded past landfall for Ida support 130 knots for landfall.

I'd say the fact that there's a 149 mph sustain wind onland after landfall proves that it is probably stronger at landfall. Probably borderline cat5.(135knt?)

[Hammy]

No offense, but are you just trying too hard to argue that every landfalling storm needs to have its landfall intensity downgraded (Laura too)?

It doesn't matter how Nicholas produces Cat 1 winds at sea level for a minute. The fact that it did means that it was indeed a hurricane.
Also that 149mph sustained winds recorded past landfall for Ida support 130 knots for landfall.

There has been debate over whether or not the 149mph measurement counts as surface sustained winds, because the vessel they were recorded on was near that 10m defining boundary.

Isn't 10m generally what constitutes 'surface winds' in the first place?

Here are all the post-season TCR adjustments I think are possible so far, based on what other users and pro mets said during the storm’s lifetime and what was observed:

My personal intimations and/or suggestions:

Claudette: controversially, remove from database
Danny: no change
Elsa: downgrade → TS near Barbados (H-force winds were elevated; see this), remove H status in Gulf
Fred: remove TS status while over Caribbean
Grace: delay TS stage, ↑ MSW at LF on Yucatán from 70 → 80 kt
Henri: retain peak, but shorten time spent as a H
Ida: ↑ Cuban MSW from 70 → 75 kt, retain peak of 130 kt, adjust Louisianan MSW ↓ to 115 kt (reasoning)
Kate: ↓ peak MSW → 35 kt
Julian: no change
Larry: ↓ peak MSW → 105 kt, remove much of its time spent as a MH
Mindy: ↑ MSW at LF → 50 kt
Nicholas: ↓ peak MSW → 55 kt (recon never supported H status, 66-kt observation at Matagorda was likely transient)
Odette: remove from database
Peter: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Rose: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Sam: ↑ MSW to 125 kt at 06:00 UTC on 25 September, ↑ peak MSW → 145 kt, reduce all “official” intensities thereafter

None of the reductions make sense and go against everything the hurricane center has done in literally every preceding year, not to mention several of these contradict actual measurements.

[DioBrando]

Here are all the post-season TCR adjustments I think are possible so far, based on what other users and pro mets said during the storm’s lifetime and what was observed:

My personal intimations and/or suggestions:

Claudette: controversially, remove from database
Danny: no change
Elsa: downgrade → TS near Barbados (H-force winds were elevated; see this), remove H status in Gulf
Fred: remove TS status while over Caribbean
Grace: delay TS stage, ↑ MSW at LF on Yucatán from 70 → 80 kt
Henri: retain peak, but shorten time spent as a H
Ida: ↑ Cuban MSW from 70 → 75 kt, retain peak of 130 kt, adjust Louisianan MSW ↓ to 115 kt (reasoning)
Kate: ↓ peak MSW → 35 kt
Julian: no change
Larry: ↓ peak MSW → 105 kt, remove much of its time spent as a MH
Mindy: ↑ MSW at LF → 50 kt
Nicholas: ↓ peak MSW → 55 kt (recon never supported H status, 66-kt observation at Matagorda was likely transient)
Odette: remove from database
Peter: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Rose: ↓ peak MSW → 40 kt
Sam: ↑ MSW to 125 kt at 06:00 UTC on 25 September, ↑ peak MSW → 145 kt, reduce all “official” intensities thereafter

bro you've gotta be trolling, right? please give proper reasoning to why you think claudette/odette should be removed and why larry's time as a major should be cut short?

[Iceresistance]

My thoughts on the rest of the 2021 Atlantic TCR's
Ana - Complete
Bill - Complete
Claudette - Maybe down to 35 knots?
Danny - Unchanged
Elsa - Slightly weaker Hurricane in the Caribbean, she was moving FAST!
Fred - Maybe down to 50 knots? It's was a good looking Tropical Storm
Grace - Up to 115 knots
Henri - Shorter time as a Hurricane
Ida - This is going to be a borderline case between 130 knots/135 knots, they may favor 130 knots more though
Julian - Unchanged
Kate - Down to 35 knots
Larry - Changes in track, but otherwise unchanged
Mindy - May be unchanged, not just because of good radar presentation
Nicholas- Unchanged because of Sustained Hurricane Wind speed reported
Odette - Subtropical?
Peter - May be slightly weaker
Rose - Stronger quicker
Sam - *Currently Active*
Victor - *Currently Active*

[Teban54]

My thoughts on the rest of the 2021 Atlantic TCR's
Ana - Complete
Bill - Complete
Claudette - Maybe down to 35 knots?
Danny - Unchanged
Elsa - Slightly weaker Hurricane in the Caribbean, she was moving FAST!
Fred - Maybe down to 50 knots? It's was a good looking Tropical Storm
Grace - Up to 115 knots
Henri - Shorter time as a Hurricane
Ida - This is going to be a borderline case between 130 knots/135 knots, they may favor 130 knots more though
Julian - Unchanged
Kate - Down to 35 knots
Larry - Changes in track, but otherwise unchanged
Mindy - May be unchanged, not just because of good radar presentation
Nicholas- Unchanged because of Sustained Hurricane Wind speed reported
Odette - Subtropical?
Peter - May be slightly weaker
Rose - Stronger
Sam - *Currently Active*

Josh Morgerman said his chase of Grace's landfall does not support a Cat 4 upgrade, though he hasn't posted the data yet:
 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1439840916299292672

[cycloneye]

The report on EPAC Tropical Storm Marty is up with peak intensity at 40kt.

Read the reports here