2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

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2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#1 Postby FireRat » Thu Jul 15, 2021 3:32 am

Hi all, 8-)
Finally got around to making this 'oddball' thread for 2021 like I did for last year, using the Chinese Zodiac to maybe apply the 12 and 60 year cycles that exist within that astrology and see if it can shed some light on what 2021 might bring with the meat of hurricane season still ahead. This thread is both for the fun of it and also a continuing experiment to see if Chinese Astrology can actually help paint a 'big picture' idea of what a particular season could bring, if indeed there are 12 year and 60 year cycles that extend into the world of tropical cyclones. :wink:
Last year, 2020, was the Year of the Rat and it was insane! The Year of the Metal Rat, as that one was called, brought a cruel and devastating wave of tropical cyclones. This has been a hallmark of Metal Rat years past, and 2020 even brought a severe late-season burst in October & November.
2021 is the Year of the Ox, will it bring something different? This is my 2nd attempt on here to 'predict' or 'shed some light' on a hurricane season based on this stuff, so here we go!

The Chinese Zodiac
Image
It is a bit more complex than most people think, because this ancient astrology system also assigns 5 different elements (Metal, Water, Wood, Fire, Earth) to the yearly animal signs, making for a total of 60 different year combinations! This way 2020 was a Metal Rat year, and 2021 is the Metal Ox. 2022, next year, will be the Water Tiger year.
Here’s some history on the origin of the zodiac, for those interested, in the link below:
https://depts.washington.edu/triolive/quest/2007/TTQ07030/history.html
This ancient wisdom handed down by the Chinese is thousands of years old, and perhaps, just perhaps, it may also extend into tropical meteorology. :lol:

In a bit more scientific view, perhaps there are recurring significant weather patterns, happening to some degree, every 12 years / 60 years around the world for some reason. If we take a step back, we could look and say that Chinese Astrology indicates that there are possibly 12-year and 60-year natural cycles at play, and the animal signs only make it easier to point them out. Alright, lets get into the 2021 stuff:

The year 2021 falls within the 12-year cycle the Chinese call the Year of the Ox, and the 60-year cycle which is called the Metal Ox.
Using the 12 year cycle, we'd look at 2009, 1997, 1985, 1973, 1961, 1949, 1937, 1925, 1913, 1901 and so on to get an idea of what 2021 could be like. Most of the seasons in this cycle were very quiet or average ones that had few significant landfalling hurricanes, a stark contrast to the Year of the Rat preceding most of those. This would seem like good news for many folks who went through last year's devastating hurricane season.
There is one caveat however...
2021 might end up being far more eventful because of the 60 year cycle, because it turns out that the Metal Ox year has brought the busiest Ox-year hurricane seasons. Using the 60 Year cycle, we get to 1961, which was a very high ACE year and featured Hurricane Carla, which was perhaps one of the worst hurricanes to strike during an Ox year. 1901 brought the most active hurricane season without a major hurricane on the other hand, with 13 known storms and 6 hurricanes, so more quantity than quality. There is only a little bit data about 1841, 1781 and 1721 however. The well-documented seasons of 1961 and 1901 could perhaps be more accurate comparisons to 2021 because of the sexagenary cycle vs the 12-year one.

I did some digging around and found the data needed to make a guess at the 2021 season. This is the first of two main parameters that I looked at this time...
The first parameter is the seasonal numbers in Total Tropical Storms/Hurricanes/Majors format (T/H/M) for all 'Ox Years' since 1851.

PARAMETER 1 -
Past Ox Year Cycles and their seasonal numbers (T/H/M), dating back to 1851:

1851 - 1950 era:

1853 - 8/4/2
1865 - 7/3/2
1877 - 8/3/1
1889 - 9/6/1
1901 - 13/6/0
1913 - 6/4/0
1925 - 4/1/0
1937 - 11/4/1
1949 - 16/7/2

Average of these years = 9.11/4.22/1.00, when rounded = 9/4/1. Not too shabby with total storm count for a time when up to 6 storms may have been missed each year, according to the NHC's Christopher Landsea (reference, "Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones back to 1900"). There is a fairly average number of hurricanes for the time, and a somewhat low major hurricane average however. This indicates these kind of years tended to be more quantity than quality. Lets see if the more recent Ox years were any different:

1950 - present era:

1961 - 12/8/5
1973 - 8/4/1
1985 - 11/7/3
1997 - 8/3/1
2009 - 9/3/2

Average of these years = 9.6/5/2.4, when rounded = 10/5/2. This is very close if not just a little below the 9.6/5.9/2.3 average from 1950 to 2000. You couldn't tell the difference between the inactive era and active 1995-present era with these Ox year hurricane seasons, in fact the strongest one was 1961 followed by 1985. This indicates that Ox years tend to be average to slow hurricane seasons with few exceptions. In fact, from an ACE point of view, virtually all Ox years, with the major exception of 1961, were average or below-normal.

Now this is the Metal Ox year average, taking only 1901 and 1961 into account because of a lack of data in the years 1841, 1781. The years 1901 and 1961 are within the 1851-present database too.
1901 - 13/6/0
1961 - 12/8/5
Average = 12.5/7/2.5 = when rounded = 13/7/3. This is substantially higher than the 1950 - 2000 average of 9.6/5.9/2.3 particularly in the total number of storms. 2021 could have a high number of named storms vs a more average hurricane/major hurricane count.
It's also worth noting that both of these seasons had fairly active Julys, as did a handful of other Ox years including 1997. 2021 already seems to be mimicking this with tropical storm Danny and Hurricane Elsa so far this month.

Times are changing however, and it's possible to catch more named storms with current methods than ever before. The newest 30-year average from 1991-2020 is: 14.4/7.2/3.2. Higher than the previous average to say the least.
In fact, in order to attempt to guess at how many 2021 will bring, it would be a good idea to also look at the last decade;
the 2010-2020 seasons which went like this:
2010: 19/12/5
2011: 19/7/4
2012: 19/10/2
2013: 14/2/0
2014: 8/6/2
2015: 11/4/2
2016: 15/7/4
2017: 17/10/6
2018: 15/8/2
2019: 18/6/3
2020: 30/14/7

2010 - 2020 Average: 16.8/7.8/3.4 = 17/8/3. This to me is perhaps the average we should compare to this season and past Ox Year hurricane seasons.

Outlook: 2021 - 16/8/4
ACE Range = 105 - 135
Numbers like these say 2021 might be in the league of these 5 recent Atlantic Hurricane Seasons ... 2000, 2001, 2016, 2018, 2019.
Calculations that led to this estimate:
1) 1950 – 2000 avg Compared with Ox years 1961 – 2009, Multiplied by 1991 – 2020 Avg = Likely 2021 outcome based on old & new ratios:
Ox Yr Avg = 9.6/5/2.4; 1950-2000 Avg = 9.6/5.9/2.3 = yields Ox Year percentages of 1950-2000 normal = 100%/84.7%/104.3%.
1991 - 2020 Avg = 14.4/7.2/3.2
Math = (100%/84.7%/104.3%) X (14.4/7.2/3.2) = 14.4/6.1/3.3 = 14/6/3. This is fairly likely outcome for 2021.
2) 1961 Compared to 1950-2000 Avg Multiplied by 2010-2020 avg = Reasonable worst possible outcome for 2021 based on metal ox year.
12/8/5 Compared to 9.6/5.9/2.3 = yields Metal Ox Yr percentages of 1950-2000 normal = 125%/136%/217%.
2010 – 2020 Avg = 16.8/7.8/3.4
Math = (125%/136%/217%) X (16.8/7.8/3.4) = (21.0/10.6/7.4) = 21/11/7. This is likely worst outcome for 2021.
3) 1961 – 2009 avg + 1991 – 2020 avg / 2 = Reasonable best 2021 outcome based on all ox years from 1961 to present.
(9.6/5/2.4) + (14.4/7.2/3.2) / 2 = 12/6.1/2.8 = 12/6/3. This is likely low-end outcome for 2021.
*Average the 3 for a 2021 outlook*...
Math = (14/6/3) + (21/11/7) + (12/6/3) / 3 = 15.7/7.7/4.3 = 16/8/4, but can also be 16/7/4, 15/8/4 or 15/8/5.
I'll choose the middle of the road 16/8/4. I'm more confident on the hurricane and major hurricane numbers, as weak systems could easily skew the named storm numbers way upward, but the math based on Ox years says 15-16 named storms is likeliest.

Now lets have a look at the 2nd parameter...

PARAMETER 2 -
Significant (Cat 2+) Landfalls / Impacts during the Ox Year Cycle:
Lets take a look back 300 years if possible for a little more accuracy. For last year's outlook we looked back about 250 yrs.

Before 1851:

1769 Earth Ox:
Sep - Strong Hurricane, likely Cat 2, strikes North Carolina Outer Banks and rides up into Virginia and New Jersey as a hurricane.
1793 Water Ox:
Oct - Strong hurricane strikes Jamaica, exact intensity unknown but likely Cat 2+.
1841 Metal Ox:
Oct - Cuba - Florida Keys hurricane hits near Havana and heads north into Key West, likely as Cat 2 with 100 - 110 mph winds.

1851 - Present:

1865 Wood Ox:
Sep - Hurricane tracks into Guadeloupe as a likely Cat 2 storm, causing significant damage and about 300 deaths, before becoming a Caribbean cruiser that went on to affect Hispaniola, Jamaica and southern Cuba before heading NW into the GOM to strike between Texas and western Louisiana as a Cat 3 storm with winds about 115 mph.
Oct - Strengthening hurricane moves up from Caribbean into Havana Cuba as a Cat 1 with 80 mph winds, then strikes Key West as a Category 3 hurricane at peak intensity with winds about 115 mph before crossing South FL while weakening a bit and exiting into the Atlantic thereafter. The storm wrecked most ships in Key West according to reports.
1877 Fire Ox:
Sep - Hurricane takes a low-rider track into Caribbean, devastates Curacao off South American Caribbean coast on September 23, then heads into the GOM to strike the Panama City FL area as Cat 3 with 115 mph winds on October 3. The storm caused a 12-foot storm surge. 84 people were killed in this storm overall.
1889 Earth Ox:
Sep - Category 3 hurricane strikes Yucatan after cruising the Caribbean, the storm then curved north northeast towards the NE Gulf Coast as a weakening Cat 1 storm.
1949 Earth Ox:
Aug - Strengthening Hurricane tracks north of Greater Antilles, then hits Bahamas on August 25 as a rapidly intensifying Cat 3 and strikes Fort Worth, FL as a 130 mph Cat 4 the next day. Major damage was caused in Palm Beach county.
Oct - Hurricane forms in western GOM and heads north into the Freeport TX area as Category 2 storm on October 4.
1961 Metal Ox:
Sept - Hurricane Carla, Cat 4, strikes Texas on September 11 as a very large and powerful storm with sustained 145 mph winds, and gusts to 170 resulting in severe damage over a wide area. Carla even produced an F4 tornado in Galveston that caused major destruction. The hurricane killed 34 people in Texas. The storm originated in the Caribbean prior to entering the GOM and heading for the central TX coast.
Oct - Major Hurricane Hattie reaches Category 5 strength in the Caribbean unusually late on October 30 as it dives SW into Belize, strikes as major 150 mph Cat 4 hurricane on Oct 31 causing severe damage and over 300 deaths.
1985 Wood Ox:
Sep - Hurricane Elena forms in the eastern GOM, does a rare loop off of the FL gulf coast before coming ashore as a Cat 3 near Biloxi, MS. Another strong hurricane, Gloria, tracks just north of the Greater Antilles as a Category 4 storm, before weakening to a Cat 2 as it curved into the NC Outer Banks and then a Cat 1 as it went north into Long Island, NY, bringing much wind and rain to the Northeast US.
Nov - Hurricane Kate, the latest landfalling strong hurricane on record in the US, first slams Cuba as a 110 mph Cat 2 on November 19 before entering the GOM and curving into Mexico Beach for a November 21 landfall as a Cat 2 as well, with 100 mph winds. Kate reached Cat 3 while in the eastern GOM.

The Ox Years and Atlantic Hurricane Landfalls:
Image

Significant Landfalling Hurricanes per Ox Year since 1851:
1853/0, 1865/2, 1877/1, 1889/0, 1901/0, 1913/0, 1925/0, 1937/0, 1949/2, 1961/2, 1973/0, 1985/3, 1997/0, 2009/0.
Average # of significant landfalling hurricanes per Ox Year = 0.71.
This is actually a pretty low average, and this tells us that we could expect 1 significant landfall every other Ox year. Since both 2009 and 1997 didn't have a strong landfall (100+ mph), and the fact that 2021 is the Metal Ox year, we could assume there will actually be at least one strong landfall this season breaking the trend, but likely no more than 2 of them. Also, one of the two strong landfalls this season could very well be a category 2 hurricane too, just below major status but significant enough to get mention.
Notice how certain areas like parts of the Gulf Coast and the Carolina Outer Banks are more common targets during these years. The Year of the Ox seems to favor either far west tracks or recurves, leading to the Greater Antilles and Florida to luck out more often during this 12-year cycle compared to others. The main exception seems to be in October, when the chances for a Cuba-Florida Cat 2 hurricane do go up a bit. The 1949 event is also a big exception, so the odds aren't zero for FL to get hit from the east this season. However, we could say FL may have a lower risk in 2021 than the Gulf States and NC. Overall this wizardry says 2021 may be more tame than some of the other recent years, at least in terms of the number of major hurricanes and landfalls. It isn't out of the question though that we could end up with a 2018-like season. being a Metal Ox year tells me it could also try to emulate 1961 in some ways, leading to this being a high ACE year and 1 to 2 pretty big landfalls.

One thing is for sure IMO regarding this, 2021 isn't going to be another 2020 or 2005.

I think all that you’ve read up to this point, adds some credence to a seemingly slower, likely about-average 2021 season, which would be still somewhat 'busy' considering an 'average' season nowadays gets us to the 'N' or 'O' name with a handful of hurricanes. This is how I think 2021 could end up being, and considering my parameters 1 and 2, here goes my crazy experimental prediction:

2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction:

2021 ends up with 16 named storms, 8 of which become hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. The main highlights of the season will be that we do get a category 4 or 5 hurricane entering the GOM from the Caribbean in Late August or September, and it may strike land as still a major Cat 3-4 hurricane much like Hurricane Carla did in '61, most likely between Northern Mexico and Louisiana. A second storm, likely a Cat 1 or 2, will brush the NC Outer Banks and remain just offshore as it curves NE. A 3rd strong storm, likely Cat 2, could form south of Cuba and head north towards the Havana area and then cross into the FL Keys and potentially SW Florida in Mid-Late October. Being a Metal Ox year, I'd side with the GOM Hurricane and the Cuba-FL October storm. Alternately, we could see a major October landfall in Central America, most likely Belize, instead of the storm going for Cuba/FL. The rest of the 2021 season may feature recurves that add to the ACE during peak season, and another low-end hurricane or tropical storm, similar to Elsa in track, could take shape in Late July or August. While 2021 may be average, it will still be fairly busy as our "average season" is going up in numbers with climate change, just something to keep in mind.

Alright guys, all that which you've read is just my 2 cents, so please take all of the above with a grain of salt. I must say, however, all of this does give some reason to think that we might be in for a better year in the tropics on this side of the world. Hopefully we do luck out this season, it would be a much needed break for many following the brutality of the epic 2020 season. This doesn't mean zero major hurricane landfalls however, and a 1961 redux is still entirely possible. This thread is experimental and probably geared more towards amusement rather than serious predictions, this is my disclaimer. The future conditions of the Atlantic, i.e. the SST's, ENSO, Teleconnections, MDR favorability, SAL and other meteorological indicators/factors will have the ultimate say in how the season goes, and these factors could change as we head into the peak of hurricane season.

Well, let’s see how 2021 evolves over the next several months, it should be fun and exciting to watch and see if this esoteric stuff has any meaning to the hurricane season.
Btw, for those of you wishing to track a truly busy season, I'd strongly recommend the WPAC... Ox years rarely disappoint in that part of the world, as it seems most of the energy these years gets sent over there in the form of several monster typhoons one after another from September thru November like it happened in 2009 and 1997.

Feel free to ask me questions or write whatever you wish here! We can track 2021 here too, and I’ll
try to keep this thread alive by posting updates, other experimental takes, visuals, and such whenever possible!

-FR :wink:
7/15/2021
Last edited by FireRat on Tue Aug 03, 2021 12:54 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#2 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Jul 15, 2021 4:39 am

Your forecast for 2020 verified quite nicely, except for a few areas (i.e., the Yucatán/Central America, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and South Texas/northern Mexico), so I am definitely paying attention. The fact that you correctly highlighted the potential for significant activity in October/November 2020, à la 1780, was probably your most significant achievement. Laura also behaved rather similarly to the 1900 Galveston hurricane, in that it crossed the Greater Antilles as a TS and then rapidly intensified in the west-central Gulf. Storms such as Fay and Isaias also illustrated the potential for impacts to the Mid-Atlantic and New England that the analog 1960 implied. So the “Metal-Rat” 1780/1900/1960 signal for 2020 definitely verified. Regarding 2021: the fact that your “analogs” suggest west-biased tracks also dovetails nicely with the ITCZ being suppressed on most long-range models. The precipitation fields on the models also suggest more of a threat to Central America, the western Gulf of Mexico, and/or the Outer Banks (or OTS), in line with your forecast. In regard to South FL, 2022 looks to be part of a more threatening cycle than 2021, given that the Year of the Tiger includes seasons such as 1926 and 1950. 1998 also featured Georges’ impact to the lower Florida Keys. The main “fly in the ointment,” however, is that 2022 is more likely to feature El Niño than 2021. Another thing to consider is that 2020 featured three “Metal-Rat” analogs, whereas 2021 features just two “Metal-Ox” ones. It is a truism that novels are divided into three books or sections, so maybe a third, supplementary Year of the Ox (non-Metal) can be given some extra weight in 2021. Which non-Metal Ox cycle, to you, appears most similar to the Metal-Ox one?
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#3 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Jul 15, 2021 7:10 am

With all due respect to the OP, I have some slight corrections that I hasten to add: according to a preliminary reanalysis of the Atlantic hurricane seasons from 1851–98 (see “supplementary materials” for the revised best track, in Excel format), both the hurricanes of 1865 in LA and FL were revised to 100 kt (Category 3) at landfall. A storm in 1889 that hit the Yucatán Peninsula was also upgraded to 100 kt (Cat-3 again) at the time of its landfall on the Yucatán. Also, according to HURDAT, the hurricane of 1877 was officially 100 kt (also Cat-3) at landfall on the Florida Panhandle. So I think that your graphic and statistics can be revised to account for these “missing” majors. Adding these three majors to the record means that the Years of the Ox are not quite as lacklustre as they may appear at first glance, especially when one considers that years prior to the satellite era are likely missing at least a few majors, especially out at sea. Based on the revised data, then, Central America, the Gulf Coast, and southern FL appear to be the primary MH targets during Years of the Ox.
Last edited by Shell Mound on Thu Jul 15, 2021 7:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#4 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jul 15, 2021 7:14 am

Image

This is a simple map of the (8) Ox years. Generally, I read the map with storms struggling in the MDR which allows them farther west and find better conditions as they move out of the sub tropics. Tremendous amount of significant impacts all over the basin for such a small sample size. 2021 is predicted to be a big year and seems to generally line up with the Chinese Zodiac Ox!

Shell thanks for all the details and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out over the next few months
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#5 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Jul 15, 2021 8:31 am

Shell Mound wrote:With all due respect to the OP, I have some slight corrections that I hasten to add: according to a preliminary reanalysis of the Atlantic hurricane seasons from 1851–98 (see “supplementary materials” for the revised best track, in Excel format), both the hurricanes of 1865 in LA and FL were revised to 100 kt (Category 3) at landfall. A storm in 1889 that hit the Yucatán Peninsula was also upgraded to 100 kt (Cat-3 again) at the time of its landfall on the Yucatán. Also, according to HURDAT, the hurricane of 1877 was officially 100 kt (also Cat-3) at landfall on the Florida Panhandle. So I think that your graphic and statistics can be revised to account for these “missing” majors. Adding these three majors to the record means that the Years of the Ox are not quite as lacklustre as they may appear at first glance, especially when one considers that years prior to the satellite era are likely missing at least a few majors, especially out at sea. Based on the revised data, then, Central America, the Gulf Coast, and southern FL appear to be the primary MH targets during Years of the Ox.

Image

Using the data from the reanalysis as well as the current HURDAT, I compiled this map showing all storms of Category 2 or greater status to affect this portion of the Atlantic basin during the Years of the Ox, going back to 1851. Note that the 1877 hurricane was preliminarily reanalysed by Michael Chenoweth et al. to have made landfall on northern Venezuela as a 100-kt Category-3 hurricane—marking one of the the southernmost MH landfalls on record, rivalling Otto (2016). Certainly, a suppressed ITCZ and/or WAR would make such an outcome more plausible than in other situations. The 1949 hurricane, Carla, and Hattie made landfalls as Category-4+ cyclones in South FL, TX, and Belize (British Honduras), respectively. Based on the data, the southwestern Caribbean, the Gulf Coast, and southern peninsular Florida appear to feature the greatest risk of a MH landfall during Years of the Ox. The overall distribution is similar to that of 2020, except hints of a more significant threat to the Mid-Atlantic and New England in 2021 vs. 2020, as storms such as Esther and Gloria suggest. Unfortunately, 1865 featured a MH landfall very close to Laura’s (2020) location, while 1985’s Elena threatened the upper west coast of peninsular Florida before looping, reversing, and striking near Gulfport, MS, as a Cat-3. So the same areas that have been impacted by storms such as Katrina, Ike (2008), and Laura could be impacted once again. However, based on the tracks observed to date, I still suspect that some of the main clusters observed in 2020 may shift a bit farther east, closer to the FL peninsula vs., say, Southwestern LA. The main clusters in 2021, I surmise, may be as follows: a) the southwestern Caribbean Sea and the far western Gulf of Mexico (i.e., the coast of TX); b) peninsular Florida (as opposed to the Panhandle, unlike in 2018 and 2020); and c) the Outer Banks and Martha’s Vineyard (MA). Maybe 1949 could be given added weight as the “supplementary” or “third” year that I suggested. I definitely suspect that this year’s two significant hurricane impacts may be as follows: 1) a Category-4+ into the southwestern Caribbean and/or TX; 2) a Category-3+ (possibly Category-4+) into southern peninsular Florida, either from the Atlantic or from the Caribbean.
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#6 Postby FireRat » Thu Jul 15, 2021 1:37 pm

Shell Mound wrote:Your forecast for 2020 verified quite nicely, except for a few areas (i.e., the Yucatán/Central America, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and South Texas/northern Mexico), so I am definitely paying attention. The fact that you correctly highlighted the potential for significant activity in October/November 2020, à la 1780, was probably your most significant achievement. Laura also behaved rather similarly to the 1900 Galveston hurricane, in that it crossed the Greater Antilles as a TS and then rapidly intensified in the west-central Gulf. Storms such as Fay and Isaias also illustrated the potential for impacts to the Mid-Atlantic and New England that the analog 1960 implied. So the “Metal-Rat” 1780/1900/1960 signal for 2020 definitely verified. Regarding 2021: the fact that your “analogs” suggest west-biased tracks also dovetails nicely with the ITCZ being suppressed on most long-range models. The precipitation fields on the models also suggest more of a threat to Central America, the western Gulf of Mexico, and/or the Outer Banks (or OTS), in line with your forecast. In regard to South FL, 2022 looks to be part of a more threatening cycle than 2021, given that the Year of the Tiger includes seasons such as 1926 and 1950. 1998 also featured Georges’ impact to the lower Florida Keys. The main “fly in the ointment,” however, is that 2022 is more likely to feature El Niño than 2021. Another thing to consider is that 2020 featured three “Metal-Rat” analogs, whereas 2021 features just two “Metal-Ox” ones. It is a truism that novels are divided into three books or sections, so maybe a third, supplementary Year of the Ox (non-Metal) can be given some extra weight in 2021. Which non-Metal Ox cycle, to you, appears most similar to the Metal-Ox one?


Thanks Shell!! :)
I really appreciate your input as well as the corrections you made for me, I went ahead and made the changes to my map at the top and some of the details regarding the Cat 3 hurricanes!

As for a non-metal Ox year, I'd say the Earth Ox is the closest match to Metal Ox, so the years 1889, 1949 and 2009 would be good fits. In 2nd place we would have the Wood Ox year, so 1985, 1925 and 1865 are also fairly good analogs.

1780 was such a beast of a season that it actually made it possible to include as a 3rd Metal Rat year analog due to all the storm reports. Most seasons pre-1851 aren't like this easy to catalog :lol:

I'm with you on 2022 and South FL, next year could be far more threatening for the Peninsula and the Greater Antilles.
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#7 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Jul 15, 2021 2:44 pm

This is a very interesting and fun thread, ngl! With me being an East Asian-American, I frequently do cultural stuff related to the Chinese zodiac and try to relate it to hurricane years sometimes for amusement; it does seem like of all the 12 animals though, the monkey and rooster years are the worst hurricane years. For example, some examples of memorable and impactful monkey year storms include the 1932 Cat 5 hurricanes, 1944's Hurricane 13, Allen, Andrew, Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, and Matthew and for rooster year storms include the 1933 Cat 5 hurricanes, 1945's Hurricane 9, Camille, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Harvey, Irma, and Maria! Makes me want to think that 2028 and 2029 will feature storms to remember...

Also another interesting thing I have noticed is that in the Atlantic, there has not been a recorded Cat 5 in a rabbit or horse year.
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#8 Postby FireRat » Thu Jul 15, 2021 6:34 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:This is a very interesting and fun thread, ngl! With me being an East Asian-American, I frequently do cultural stuff related to the Chinese zodiac and try to relate it to hurricane years sometimes for amusement; it does seem like of all the 12 animals though, the monkey and rooster years are the worst hurricane years. For example, some examples of memorable and impactful monkey year storms include the 1932 Cat 5 hurricanes, 1944's Hurricane 13, Allen, Andrew, Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, and Matthew and for rooster year storms include the 1933 Cat 5 hurricanes, 1945's Hurricane 9, Camille, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Harvey, Irma, and Maria! Makes me want to think that 2028 and 2029 will feature storms to remember...

Also another interesting thing I have noticed is that in the Atlantic, there has not been a recorded Cat 5 in a rabbit or horse year.


Thanks Cat5Kaiju!

It really does seem that way, Monkey and Rooster years are up there for major impacts especially in Florida and the Islands. Another very eventful one is the Rat, like last year. Rat years tend to be wild basinwide too. Pig years can also be big, especially in September.

Rabbit years have had their fair share of majors, but most have been Cat 4s oddly enough. Horse years are similar to Ox, Dog and Sheep with quieter seasons. Tiger, Dragon and Snake years can be unpredictable ones, sometimes super quiet and other times very explosive!
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#9 Postby FireRat » Fri Jul 16, 2021 12:40 am

Check this out guys, there also seems to be a July trend with Metal Ox years!
The following are tracks and intensities of July storms from 1901 and 1961:


1901 Tropical Storm Two
July 1 - 10, 1901
Image

1901 Hurricane Three
July 4 - 13, 1901
Image

1961 Hurricane Anna
July 20 - 24, 1961
Image

Compare & Notice the similarity between the timing and general tracks and intensities of these storms and 2021's July so far, with Elsa.
The general trend seems to be that Metal Ox years get off to a fast start (1997 did this too, btw), and the general pattern seen in these July storms, which 2021 also shares, is how tropical storms cross the Windward Islands and enter the Caribbean in a general west to northwest track. Not many Julys feature Caribbean cruisers or tropical storms that pass over the Lesser and Greater Antilles that go on to hit the US or Central America afterward, so early in the season. Fortunately these storms were fairly weak, and 2021's Elsa luckily didn't get past Cat 1 either.

2021 Hurricane Elsa
July 1 - 9, 2021
Image
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#10 Postby FireRat » Fri Jul 16, 2021 12:57 am

Shell Mound wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:With all due respect to the OP, I have some slight corrections that I hasten to add: according to a preliminary reanalysis of the Atlantic hurricane seasons from 1851–98 (see “supplementary materials” for the revised best track, in Excel format), both the hurricanes of 1865 in LA and FL were revised to 100 kt (Category 3) at landfall. A storm in 1889 that hit the Yucatán Peninsula was also upgraded to 100 kt (Cat-3 again) at the time of its landfall on the Yucatán. Also, according to HURDAT, the hurricane of 1877 was officially 100 kt (also Cat-3) at landfall on the Florida Panhandle. So I think that your graphic and statistics can be revised to account for these “missing” majors. Adding these three majors to the record means that the Years of the Ox are not quite as lacklustre as they may appear at first glance, especially when one considers that years prior to the satellite era are likely missing at least a few majors, especially out at sea. Based on the revised data, then, Central America, the Gulf Coast, and southern FL appear to be the primary MH targets during Years of the Ox.

https://i.ibb.co/Bs5MR8F/Yearofthe-Ox.png

Using the data from the reanalysis as well as the current HURDAT, I compiled this map showing all storms of Category 2 or greater status to affect this portion of the Atlantic basin during the Years of the Ox, going back to 1851. Note that the 1877 hurricane was preliminarily reanalysed by Michael Chenoweth et al. to have made landfall on northern Venezuela as a 100-kt Category-3 hurricane—marking one of the the southernmost MH landfalls on record, rivalling Otto (2016). Certainly, a suppressed ITCZ and/or WAR would make such an outcome more plausible than in other situations. The 1949 hurricane, Carla, and Hattie made landfalls as Category-4+ cyclones in South FL, TX, and Belize (British Honduras), respectively. Based on the data, the southwestern Caribbean, the Gulf Coast, and southern peninsular Florida appear to feature the greatest risk of a MH landfall during Years of the Ox. The overall distribution is similar to that of 2020, except hints of a more significant threat to the Mid-Atlantic and New England in 2021 vs. 2020, as storms such as Esther and Gloria suggest. Unfortunately, 1865 featured a MH landfall very close to Laura’s (2020) location, while 1985’s Elena threatened the upper west coast of peninsular Florida before looping, reversing, and striking near Gulfport, MS, as a Cat-3. So the same areas that have been impacted by storms such as Katrina, Ike (2008), and Laura could be impacted once again. However, based on the tracks observed to date, I still suspect that some of the main clusters observed in 2020 may shift a bit farther east, closer to the FL peninsula vs., say, Southwestern LA. The main clusters in 2021, I surmise, may be as follows: a) the southwestern Caribbean Sea and the far western Gulf of Mexico (i.e., the coast of TX); b) peninsular Florida (as opposed to the Panhandle, unlike in 2018 and 2020); and c) the Outer Banks and Martha’s Vineyard (MA). Maybe 1949 could be given added weight as the “supplementary” or “third” year that I suggested. I definitely suspect that this year’s two significant hurricane impacts may be as follows: 1) a Category-4+ into the southwestern Caribbean and/or TX; 2) a Category-3+ (possibly Category-4+) into southern peninsular Florida, either from the Atlantic or from the Caribbean.


This is such a great graphic Shell! 8-)
It Really puts it into perspective! While Ox Years may be slower, they're definitely not ones you wanna sleep on either! I believe 1949 is actually a perfect "missing 3rd Ox year" for the Metal Ox season we're in. 1949 is the Earth Ox year, and this element is actually the closest thing to Metal in the Chinese Astrology system, so definitely makes a lot of sense. With this in mind, we add some risk to Texas and the Western GOM, but also gain that missing South FL threat that most other Ox years didn't provide. 1949's Major South FL strike was a fluke as far as Ox years go... most of the FL Ox hurricanes were clustered in the Keys or the westernmost FL Gulf Coast, not Atlantic side with a hit from the east like the 1949 storm. Could 2021 do this again? I'd say the odds are low, but not zero!
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#11 Postby FireRat » Fri Jul 16, 2021 1:03 am

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/NtZgv5k.jpg

This is a simple map of the (8) Ox years. Generally, I read the map with storms struggling in the MDR which allows them farther west and find better conditions as they move out of the sub tropics. Tremendous amount of significant impacts all over the basin for such a small sample size. 2021 is predicted to be a big year and seems to generally line up with the Chinese Zodiac Ox!

Shell thanks for all the details and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out over the next few months


Thanks for this great map visual Blown Away! 8-)
Definitely puts it into perspective, Ox years are pretty west-biased! (Like its predecessor, the RAT)
Fortunately there weren't as many major landfalls as there could have been, lots of potential for disaster based on those tracks.
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#12 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri Jul 16, 2021 4:24 am

Well this is not good news for me if the metal ox years of 1901 and 1961 are analogs:

Hurricane Esther (1961)
Image

I swear we have been luckier than South Florida in terms of hurricanes.
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#13 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Jul 16, 2021 5:03 am

FireRat wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:Your forecast for 2020 verified quite nicely, except for a few areas (i.e., the Yucatán/Central America, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and South Texas/northern Mexico), so I am definitely paying attention. The fact that you correctly highlighted the potential for significant activity in October/November 2020, à la 1780, was probably your most significant achievement. Laura also behaved rather similarly to the 1900 Galveston hurricane, in that it crossed the Greater Antilles as a TS and then rapidly intensified in the west-central Gulf. Storms such as Fay and Isaias also illustrated the potential for impacts to the Mid-Atlantic and New England that the analog 1960 implied. So the “Metal-Rat” 1780/1900/1960 signal for 2020 definitely verified. Regarding 2021: the fact that your “analogs” suggest west-biased tracks also dovetails nicely with the ITCZ being suppressed on most long-range models. The precipitation fields on the models also suggest more of a threat to Central America, the western Gulf of Mexico, and/or the Outer Banks (or OTS), in line with your forecast. In regard to South FL, 2022 looks to be part of a more threatening cycle than 2021, given that the Year of the Tiger includes seasons such as 1926 and 1950. 1998 also featured Georges’ impact to the lower Florida Keys. The main “fly in the ointment,” however, is that 2022 is more likely to feature El Niño than 2021. Another thing to consider is that 2020 featured three “Metal-Rat” analogs, whereas 2021 features just two “Metal-Ox” ones. It is a truism that novels are divided into three books or sections, so maybe a third, supplementary Year of the Ox (non-Metal) can be given some extra weight in 2021. Which non-Metal Ox cycle, to you, appears most similar to the Metal-Ox one?


Thanks Shell!! :)
I really appreciate your input as well as the corrections you made for me, I went ahead and made the changes to my map at the top and some of the details regarding the Cat 3 hurricanes!

As for a non-metal Ox year, I'd say the Earth Ox is the closest match to Metal Ox, so the years 1889, 1949 and 2009 would be good fits. In 2nd place we would have the Wood Ox year, so 1985, 1925 and 1865 are also fairly good analogs.

1780 was such a beast of a season that it actually made it possible to include as a 3rd Metal Rat year analog due to all the storm reports. Most seasons pre-1851 aren't like this easy to catalog :lol:

I'm with you on 2022 and South FL, next year could be far more threatening for the Peninsula and the Greater Antilles.

Here’s another thing to consider: third-year Niñas are relatively uncommon, and given the high OHC at the subsurface in the equatorial Pacific, I would expect 2022 to finally head toward warm neutral or +ENSO (El Niño), after 2021’s featuring cool neutral or -ENSO (double-dip La Niña) during fall/winter. So even though the Zodiac suggests that 2022 would, on average, be more likely to feature a greater risk of a MH impact on South(-east) Florida than 2021, we must also factor in the likelihood that the Years of the Tiger are varied, with some extremely high-impact seasons as well as their antitheses, so 2022 could end up being one of the “underperforming” Years of the Tiger. If that ends up being the case, then maybe 2021 will end up exceeding expectations in terms of a MH strike from the east in South(-east) Florida, especially if 1949 is given extra weight as a “third” or “honorary” Metal-Ox year. All in all, maybe 2021 will end up being a “wild-card” Metal-Ox year and end up being more significant for South(-east) FL than 2022, in effect “trading places” somewhat with the high-impact Years of the Tiger, given the possibility of +ENSO returning in 2022. One might also keep in mind that high-impact years tend to come in clusters (i.e., most notoriously, 1932–3 and 2004–5). Maybe 2020–1 will in some respects be another pair, one with some added “twists,” that is, 2021 being an unusually high-performing Metal-Ox year with greater-than-expected impact to South FL. Maybe 2021 will end up being a blend of 1949 and 1961 in terms of overall impacts by region.

Image

This map shows all the known hurricane tracks of both 1949 and 1961, and also highlights their landfalls by category (shaded circles). To compare with 2021, I added the landfalls (shaded squares) of Claudette, Danny, and Elsa, their general tracks highlighted by bolded black lines. As an added bonus, I included some rough generalisations (faded pink lines) of possible tracks during the upcoming peak months of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Over the years I have noticed that one can subtly detect patterns in the tracks of tropical cyclones. For example, I have observed that on tracking maps storms tend to intersect each other’s paths at roughly a 45° or 90° angle relative to each other’s heading, and that the intersection occurs at the inflection point(s) of one or both paths. In other words, as one storm begins to change its general heading, another storm earlier or later in the year will intersect the previous storm’s path at that precise point, or general location, of inflection. Taking this into account, one can also see the general outlines of the steering currents, of ridge- and trough-axes, very early on in a season, just by noting the patterns in the first two or three tracks. Based on how Claudette, Danny, and Elsa, as well as Ana and Bill, have tracked thus far, I can already see some indications that peninsular Florida and the Texan coast may be at elevated risk during the peak of the season. I actually applied this methodology of mine to the first several tracks of 2020, and found that the eventual outcome generally matched my supposition(s).

As far as analogs for individual tracks are concerned, I would look at the 1943 “Surprise” hurricane, the 1945 Florida hurricane, and Irma (2017).
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#14 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jul 16, 2021 1:07 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:Well this is not good news for me if the metal ox years of 1901 and 1961 are analogs:

Hurricane Esther (1961)
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9e/Esther_1961_track.png/1024px-Esther_1961_track.png

I swear we have been luckier than South Florida in terms of hurricanes.


Yeah I think Bob was the last major New England hurricane if I am not mistaken? I also have friends and family who live in Rhode Island and Massachusetts, although I have not personally asked them what it was like to be in that storm yet
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#15 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri Jul 16, 2021 1:17 pm

Looking at non-metal ox years, we have 1985:

Hurricane Gloria (1985):
Image
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#16 Postby FireRat » Sun Jul 18, 2021 3:08 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:Looking at non-metal ox years, we have 1985:

Hurricane Gloria (1985):
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/07/Gloria_1985_track.png/1280px-Gloria_1985_track.png


Yup, and 1985 was perhaps the busiest Ox year with respect to landfalls. With there being a few strong hurricanes affecting the NC Outer Banks to New England in years like these, I'd say keep an eye on this part of the US as we head into September just in case another one curves north of the Bahamas and into the NC to MA region, there is at least an average risk for this area to be affected this year, most likely by a Cat1 or Cat 2, in September or early October, based on this stuff
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#17 Postby FireRat » Sun Jul 18, 2021 3:19 pm

Shell Mound wrote:Here’s another thing to consider: third-year Niñas are relatively uncommon, and given the high OHC at the subsurface in the equatorial Pacific, I would expect 2022 to finally head toward warm neutral or +ENSO (El Niño), after 2021’s featuring cool neutral or -ENSO (double-dip La Niña) during fall/winter. So even though the Zodiac suggests that 2022 would, on average, be more likely to feature a greater risk of a MH impact on South(-east) Florida than 2021, we must also factor in the likelihood that the Years of the Tiger are varied, with some extremely high-impact seasons as well as their antitheses, so 2022 could end up being one of the “underperforming” Years of the Tiger. If that ends up being the case, then maybe 2021 will end up exceeding expectations in terms of a MH strike from the east in South(-east) Florida, especially if 1949 is given extra weight as a “third” or “honorary” Metal-Ox year. All in all, maybe 2021 will end up being a “wild-card” Metal-Ox year and end up being more significant for South(-east) FL than 2022, in effect “trading places” somewhat with the high-impact Years of the Tiger, given the possibility of +ENSO returning in 2022. One might also keep in mind that high-impact years tend to come in clusters (i.e., most notoriously, 1932–3 and 2004–5). Maybe 2020–1 will in some respects be another pair, one with some added “twists,” that is, 2021 being an unusually high-performing Metal-Ox year with greater-than-expected impact to South FL. Maybe 2021 will end up being a blend of 1949 and 1961 in terms of overall impacts by region.

https://i.ibb.co/H4rhPQP/2021tracks-1.png

This map shows all the known hurricane tracks of both 1949 and 1961, and also highlights their landfalls by category (shaded circles). To compare with 2021, I added the landfalls (shaded squares) of Claudette, Danny, and Elsa, their general tracks highlighted by bolded black lines. As an added bonus, I included some rough generalisations (faded pink lines) of possible tracks during the upcoming peak months of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Over the years I have noticed that one can subtly detect patterns in the tracks of tropical cyclones. For example, I have observed that on tracking maps storms tend to intersect each other’s paths at roughly a 45° or 90° angle relative to each other’s heading, and that the intersection occurs at the inflection point(s) of one or both paths. In other words, as one storm begins to change its general heading, another storm earlier or later in the year will intersect the previous storm’s path at that precise point, or general location, of inflection. Taking this into account, one can also see the general outlines of the steering currents, of ridge- and trough-axes, very early on in a season, just by noting the patterns in the first two or three tracks. Based on how Claudette, Danny, and Elsa, as well as Ana and Bill, have tracked thus far, I can already see some indications that peninsular Florida and the Texan coast may be at elevated risk during the peak of the season. I actually applied this methodology of mine to the first several tracks of 2020, and found that the eventual outcome generally matched my supposition(s).

As far as analogs for individual tracks are concerned, I would look at the 1943 “Surprise” hurricane, the 1945 Florida hurricane, and Irma (2017).


This map you created showing the blend of 1949 and 2021 could reasonably be a worst-case scenario for this 2021 Ox year! Those two years were two of the 3 biggest Ox-year hurricane seasons, both for impacts and number of storms. 1985 was the 3rd big one in the Ox group. It will be exciting to see what 2021 decides to emulate, with actual indicators still pointing to a very busy year, it is possible that 2021 will offer a '49-'61 blend, with storms curving into the GOM, FL and Eastern US seaboard. Perhaps most of the Greater & Lesser Antilles luck out and don't get any major impacts, as most of the 1949 and 1961 hurricanes went north of them, or formed farther west.
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#18 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:26 am

In addition to the Chinese Zodiac, I also applied other factors such as a) years that featured a similarly strong Atlantic Niño and -AMM/-AMO early on, as well as b) years that featured TC tracks (TS or stronger) in June/July that were similar to those observed thus far in 2021. Therefore, in addition to 1949 and 1961, I also considered years that applied to a) and b). Years that applied to a) included 1996, 1999, and 2003. Years that applied to b) included 1902, 1943, 1945, 1960, and 2013. After adding those extra years to the “best-fit” Metal-Ox analogs of 1949 and 1961, the resulting composite tracks of major hurricanes were strikingly similar in clustering to those of the two Metal-Ox analogs. 1949 and 1961 featured MH impacts that tended to cluster over the SW Caribbean, coastal TX, and peninsular FL, with other major or near-major hurricanes coming close to the Outer Banks. The addition of the additional years only further bolsters the clusters that were already present, as can be seen below:

Image

So perhaps 2021 will feature major threats to the western Gulf Coast, principally TX, and along the East Coast from South FL northward to New England. We could see a Carla-type system that intensifies over the Gulf prior to landfall on TX, and we could also see a 1945-, 1949-, or Donna-type CV long-tracker that curves northward after striking South FL, impacting the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England as well.
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#19 Postby FireRat » Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:30 am

Shell Mound wrote:In addition to the Chinese Zodiac, I also applied other factors such as a) years that featured a similarly strong Atlantic Niño and -AMM/-AMO early on, as well as b) years that featured TC tracks (TS or stronger) in June/July that were similar to those observed thus far in 2021. Therefore, in addition to 1949 and 1961, I also considered years that applied to a) and b). Years that applied to a) included 1996, 1999, and 2003. Years that applied to b) included 1902, 1943, 1945, 1960, and 2013. After adding those extra years to the “best-fit” Metal-Ox analogs of 1949 and 1961, the resulting composite tracks of major hurricanes were strikingly similar in clustering to those of the two Metal-Ox analogs. 1949 and 1961 featured MH impacts that tended to cluster over the SW Caribbean, coastal TX, and peninsular FL, with other major or near-major hurricanes coming close to the Outer Banks. The addition of the additional years only further bolsters the clusters that were already present, as can be seen below:

https://i.ibb.co/bNYHchN/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-20-kl-17-13-53.png

So perhaps 2021 will feature major threats to the western Gulf Coast, principally TX, and along the East Coast from South FL northward to New England. We could see a Carla-type system that intensifies over the Gulf prior to landfall on TX, and we could also see a 1945-, 1949-, or Donna-type CV long-tracker that curves northward after striking South FL, impacting the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England as well.


Thanks for this Shell, you may be onto something with those other years using the Atlantic Niño and -AMM/-AMO, and this also kinda matches my feeling that the action this season might have origins in the Caribbean and have stuff head into the west half of the GOM, and also how we could see activity along the eastern seaboard with strong hurricanes curving north of the Bahamas and affecting land from NC north, but with only the NC outer banks really having an elevated risk for a strong/major brush or strike (C2-C3) compared the others on the east coast, like what was seen in some of the Ox years past.

1949 from a numerology perspective, aside from the chinese astrology, is also an interesting comparison because 2021 amd 1949 are in the same Numerology group. The year 2021 is part of the '5' numerology (2+0+2+1 = 5), and 1949 also belongs to the '5' numerology as in (1+9+4+9 = 23, 2+3 = 5). The year 1985 also has the same numerology, and who knows, perhaps a "Number 5" Ox Year could be more similar to 2021, aside from just the metal ones. This way, 1949 & 1985 would seem like good analogs for 2021 beside the other metal ox years.

With 1949 strongly having ties to this year due to this, there's some chance for a direct FL strike compared to most other Ox years, but IMO this would still be an outside chance, since '49 is more of an exception than the rule for the Ox year cycle. Next year and the trio of 2024-25-26 could really be the ones that put FL back in the 'cone', again based on all this esoteric stuff!
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#20 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Jul 22, 2021 6:43 am

FireRat wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:In addition to the Chinese Zodiac, I also applied other factors such as a) years that featured a similarly strong Atlantic Niño and -AMM/-AMO early on, as well as b) years that featured TC tracks (TS or stronger) in June/July that were similar to those observed thus far in 2021. Therefore, in addition to 1949 and 1961, I also considered years that applied to a) and b). Years that applied to a) included 1996, 1999, and 2003. Years that applied to b) included 1902, 1943, 1945, 1960, and 2013. After adding those extra years to the “best-fit” Metal-Ox analogs of 1949 and 1961, the resulting composite tracks of major hurricanes were strikingly similar in clustering to those of the two Metal-Ox analogs. 1949 and 1961 featured MH impacts that tended to cluster over the SW Caribbean, coastal TX, and peninsular FL, with other major or near-major hurricanes coming close to the Outer Banks. The addition of the additional years only further bolsters the clusters that were already present, as can be seen below:

https://i.ibb.co/bNYHchN/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-20-kl-17-13-53.png

So perhaps 2021 will feature major threats to the western Gulf Coast, principally TX, and along the East Coast from South FL northward to New England. We could see a Carla-type system that intensifies over the Gulf prior to landfall on TX, and we could also see a 1945-, 1949-, or Donna-type CV long-tracker that curves northward after striking South FL, impacting the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England as well.

Next year and the trio of 2024-25-26 could really be the ones that put FL back in the 'cone', again based on all this esoteric stuff!

Next year will almost certainly feature El Niño, however, so I would look beyond 2022 for potential threats.
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