2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#41 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Oct 05, 2021 5:55 pm

I can tell you that 2025 is going to be an interesting season to predict using this method.
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#42 Postby FireRat » Wed Oct 06, 2021 12:24 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:I can tell you that 2025 is going to be an interesting season to predict using this method.


Oh I know, lol, it may actually be very tough to call that one, year of the snake, always full of surprises and is usually either anticlimactic like 2013 or eventful like 1989 or 1893. A coin flip tbh. 2025 has a very strong ring to it as well, it just sounds like it could be a very memorable season, and not like 1925 haha. 2022 is gonna be fun to try too!
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#43 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:41 am


Well, Sam certainly followed the general CV-type track outlined for the last week of September and the first week of October, albeit farther east. The remainder of Larry also lined up well with the general prognosis. The latest CFSv2 weeklies suggest that a final system in late October could follow a similar track to that which is highlighted, but perhaps miss South Florida to the east while tracking over Cuba and the Bahamas, à la Michelle (2001). I still think we will likely see one final late-season major hurricane in the Caribbean, but that it will occur too late in the year to threaten the CONUS. We shall see. But once again your “method” seems to have verified fairly well, whether by coincidence or design.
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#44 Postby FireRat » Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:28 pm

Shell Mound wrote:

Well, Sam certainly followed the general CV-type track outlined for the last week of September and the first week of October, albeit farther east. The remainder of Larry also lined up well with the general prognosis. The latest CFSv2 weeklies suggest that a final system in late October could follow a similar track to that which is highlighted, but perhaps miss South Florida to the east while tracking over Cuba and the Bahamas, à la Michelle (2001). I still think we will likely see one final late-season major hurricane in the Caribbean, but that it will occur too late in the year to threaten the CONUS. We shall see. But once again your “method” seems to have verified fairly well, whether by coincidence or design.


Thanks for the recap Shell! True how Sam satisfied that general drawing I made back then but with the track further east, sparing everyone and providing some awesome eye candy... this is my favorite kind of prediction that kind of becomes true, one that doesn't cause pain and suffering but instead has us glued to the forum watching the awesome storm that Sam became!

Thanks for the heads up about Late October, is might indeed be an interesting time! So far this 'method' looks like it's coming close to accurate, but it sure has been tough to nail down the number of NS, looks like I've been lowballing it so far lol. Currently sitting at 20/7/4. Oct will likely push us to 21+/8+/5, I originally thought we'd 'only' see 16/8/4 thru Nov 30! The tracks of the significant 2021 storms have been pretty close to what I imagined at least, Interestingly enough.

ACE is also very close to the upper end, if not just past the 105 - 135 Ace points that this esoteric way led me to originally figure, thanks to Sam. Guess I've been kinda lucky with these fun guesses lately, but of course now all this is at October and November's mercy haha. The last 2 months of the season could push my prediction way off in the numbers, but will be interesting to see what path that future Late October 'cane will take! 8-)
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#45 Postby AlphaToOmega » Wed Oct 06, 2021 6:27 pm

FireRat wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:

Well, Sam certainly followed the general CV-type track outlined for the last week of September and the first week of October, albeit farther east. The remainder of Larry also lined up well with the general prognosis. The latest CFSv2 weeklies suggest that a final system in late October could follow a similar track to that which is highlighted, but perhaps miss South Florida to the east while tracking over Cuba and the Bahamas, à la Michelle (2001). I still think we will likely see one final late-season major hurricane in the Caribbean, but that it will occur too late in the year to threaten the CONUS. We shall see. But once again your “method” seems to have verified fairly well, whether by coincidence or design.


Thanks for the recap Shell! True how Sam satisfied that general drawing I made back then but with the track further east, sparing everyone and providing some awesome eye candy... this is my favorite kind of prediction that kind of becomes true, one that doesn't cause pain and suffering but instead has us glued to the forum watching the awesome storm that Sam became!

Thanks for the heads up about Late October, is might indeed be an interesting time! So far this 'method' looks like it's coming close to accurate, but it sure has been tough to nail down the number of NS, looks like I've been lowballing it so far lol. Currently sitting at 20/7/4. Oct will likely push us to 21+/8+/5, I originally thought we'd 'only' see 16/8/4 thru Nov 30! The tracks of the significant 2021 storms have been pretty close to what I imagined at least, Interestingly enough.

ACE is also very close to the upper end, if not just past the 105 - 135 Ace points that this esoteric way led me to originally figure, thanks to Sam. Guess I've been kinda lucky with these fun guesses lately, but of course now all this is at October and November's mercy haha. The last 2 months of the season could push my prediction way off in the numbers, but will be interesting to see what path that future Late October 'cane will take! 8-)


To be fair, the sample of ox years we have does skew the data: 1961 and before (pre-satellite), 1973 (-AMO), 1985 (-AMO), 1997 (strong El Nino), 2009 (moderate El Nino). Every ox year before 2021 was either pre-satellite (not all storms would have been detected), -AMO (sinking air due to below-average SSTs leading to increased wind shear), or +ENSO (increased wind shear again). 2021 might be the first ox year with favorable conditions for activity in the Atlantic and the first ox year with the technology to detect weak, short-lived tropical storms.
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#46 Postby Teban54 » Thu Oct 07, 2021 12:46 am

Just FYI, I personally think "Gold" is a more accurate translation for the first element rather than "Metal", but I understand Metal seems to be used more frequently in the English literature.
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#47 Postby FireRat » Thu Oct 07, 2021 2:00 am

AlphaToOnega, That's something I've noticed too! This ox year was the first in the satellite era to actually have had overall favorable conditions, I actually was thinking that inhibiting factors somehow might be a trait of most ox years, and coincidentally the last time it was quite favorable in the ox year was 1961, which was the last metal ox year and from an ACE standpoint, was very busy. 1985 came close with its quality storms though. I'm actually tempted to put a lot of weight into the 2010- 2020 avg or the last 10 to 12 years' average for future predictions when it comes to the named storm count, things really seem to have set off in 2010 with 18+ NS being attained or surpassed often ever since!

Teban54, that's true, they do also call these kind of years 'golden'. I remember hearing last year we were in the Golden Rat year for example. I've read from most english language sources that the element is 'metal' indeed, so yea either works, golden makes it sound nicer too, might as well choose the best metal out there! It actually makes sense because the elements water and metal are in a positive compatibility, meaning that they wouldn't destroy each other, but water can rust some metals, yet gold is the one that doesn't rust! Therefore Gold is a good representation of the 'metal' element, since it can actually be compatible with water, all this from a deeper meaning of Chinese Astrology.
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#48 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Nov 03, 2021 5:09 am

FireRat, which years are part of the Water Tiger cycle? Do you have a list? Also, 1992 was a Year of the Monkey, so why are you applying it to 2022?
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#49 Postby FireRat » Wed Nov 03, 2021 3:30 pm

Shell Mound wrote:FireRat, which years are part of the Water Tiger cycle? Do you have a list? Also, 1992 was a Year of the Monkey, so why are you applying it to 2022?


Hey Shell, the Water Tiger year cycles are 1962, 1902, 1842, 1782 and so on. I also applied 1992 (water monkey) and 2012 (water dragon) on that other thread simply because they were 'water years' and, aside from the whole zodiac thing, could also represent more-or-less what 2022 might end up being like overall with respect to NS numbers VS H/MH numbers, a year with more quantity than quality, that also features one blockbuster historic hurricane.

2022 could behave kinda like 1992 with a low ratio of hurricanes/majors yet have a high NS count more on par with 2012, but with the tiger year tracks such as 1926, 1938, 1950, 1998. It really looks like a weird animal of a season that we're going to enter.
2022 isn't looking like a friendly low-impact season, it might be kind of year that features a very high impact storm or two, despite seeming 'slow'. I also suspect that Florida, Bahamas and the Caribbean Antilles are in for it next year.

There is one caveat with 2022 also, and it happens to be that Water Tiger year is actually among the slowest of the Tiger cycle, so this makes it tougher to come up with the numbers. (kind of why I looked at other 'water years' outside the Tiger ones).
Honestly I feel that the current era (meteorologically speaking, AMO) is what may end up giving 2022 a boost over say, 1962 and 1902. Therefore the best Water Tiger year analog for 2022 might be 1842 (which by accounts was quite busy impact-wise). Too bad that season was before 1851, to have a good idea of total storm numbers, you'd need to have a monster of a year like 1780 to even attempt that lol.

My early guess for 2022, just by eyeballing it, I'd go with something like 19/6/2.
With all the tools the NHC has nowadays, they'll likely name a bunch of weak TS that helps us get to 19 or more.
Many seasons since 2010 produced 19+ NS, so getting to Tobias would seem rather likely next year.
Also, tiger years tend to be very backloaded (Sept - Nov), so the latter names might get to be the big ones.
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#50 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Nov 04, 2021 6:06 am

FireRat wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:FireRat, which years are part of the Water Tiger cycle? Do you have a list? Also, 1992 was a Year of the Monkey, so why are you applying it to 2022?


Hey Shell, the Water Tiger year cycles are 1962, 1902, 1842, 1782 and so on. I also applied 1992 (water monkey) and 2012 (water dragon) on that other thread simply because they were 'water years' and, aside from the whole zodiac thing, could also represent more-or-less what 2022 might end up being like overall with respect to NS numbers VS H/MH numbers, a year with more quantity than quality, that also features one blockbuster historic hurricane.

2022 could behave kinda like 1992 with a low ratio of hurricanes/majors yet have a high NS count more on par with 2012, but with the tiger year tracks such as 1926, 1938, 1950, 1998. It really looks like a weird animal of a season that we're going to enter.
2022 isn't looking like a friendly low-impact season, it might be kind of year that features a very high impact storm or two, despite seeming 'slow'. I also suspect that Florida, Bahamas and the Caribbean Antilles are in for it next year.

Why did you select the “Water Monkey” and “Water Dragon” rather than other “Water” years such as that of the “Water Rabbit”?

Based on your contributions here and in this thread, you have highlighted the seasons of 1782, 1842, 1902, 1926, 1938, 1950, 1962, 1992, 1998, and 2012 as potential analogs. The “Water Tiger” subset, aside from 1842, has tended to be rather tame in terms of overall activity and impact(s). If 2022 were to feature El Niño, then maybe it could be similar to 1902 and/or 1962. On the other hand, if El Niño were to remain in abeyance, then 2022 could follow the other Years of the Tiger, the other “Water” years, or a combination thereof, as you have mentioned. Such an outcome would likely yield a much more eventful season. Overall, the level of uncertainty seems higher in 2022 than in 2021, given a broader range of potential outcomes, ranging from uneventful to impactful.

As far as impacts are concerned: we often mention South Florida as a target, yet more often than not the most significant impacts occur elsewhere, as is typical, 2017’s Irma excepted. Interestingly, the analogs that you mentioned featured four major hurricanes within 50 n mi of the City of Miami, Florida (in 1926, 1950, and 1992, respectively), three of which were Category 4+, including two of the most catastrophic in Florida’s history: the 1926 Miami hurricane and Andrew. Also, 1950’s King, like the 1926 hurricane, delivered major-hurricane conditions to Downtown Miami; like Andrew, it was explosively deepening as it made landfall. Intriguingly, both 1926 and 1950 are Years of the Tiger; 1950 also featured Cat-3 Easy, which set a 24h rainfall record of 38.7” in Yankeetown, FL.

Another observation: evidently, the Years of the Tiger that are impactful tend to be exceptionally so. For example, 1926, 1938, 1950, and 1998 all featured major-hurricane impacts on densely populated areas such as Miami, Havana, Long Island, San Juan, and Santo Domingo, to not mention the catastrophic impacts of weaker systems such as Mitch in, among other regions, Central America. Besides Easy, several other storms produced either torrential rainfall or seiches or both: the 1926 Miami hurricane generated a seiche on Lake Okeechobee that drowned hundreds of people, along with 18.5” of rain in the Florida Panhandle. Georges, like Mitch, also yielded catastrophic flooding and mudslides over a broad swath. The 1938 hurricane also exacerbated flooding in the Northeast.

As an aside, here is a compilation of Hurricane / Major Hurricane landfalls on the CONUS during the aforementioned analogs (since 1851):

  • Gulf Coast: 8 / 3 (38%)
  • Peninsular Florida: 5 / 4 (80%)
  • East Coast: 2 / 1 (50%)

Unlike 2021’s set of analogs, 2022’s seems more evenly split between (major) impacts on the Gulf and on peninsular Florida, suggestive of a somewhat higher potential for (significant) impacts on the latter. Once again, given your method’s performance in 2020–1, I am paying attention. 2021 was a Year of the Metal Ox, like 1901 and 1961, and its two outstanding storms—Ida and Sam—were somewhat similar to 1961’s Carla and Esther, respectively. Ida, like Carla, was 2021’s “signature” impact on the Gulf Coast, while Sam, like 1961’s Esther, was a (probable) Category 5 that either did not make landfall or delivered insignificant impacts to land.
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Re: 2021 Oddball Hurricane Season Prediction Thread Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 Year/ 60 year Cycle)

#51 Postby FireRat » Fri Nov 05, 2021 1:13 am

Shell Mound wrote:Why did you select the “Water Monkey” and “Water Dragon” rather than other “Water” years such as that of the “Water Rabbit”?

Based on your contributions here and in this thread, you have highlighted the seasons of 1782, 1842, 1902, 1926, 1938, 1950, 1962, 1992, 1998, and 2012 as potential analogs. The “Water Tiger” subset, aside from 1842, has tended to be rather tame in terms of overall activity and impact(s). If 2022 were to feature El Niño, then maybe it could be similar to 1902 and/or 1962. On the other hand, if El Niño were to remain in abeyance, then 2022 could follow the other Years of the Tiger, the other “Water” years, or a combination thereof, as you have mentioned. Such an outcome would likely yield a much more eventful season. Overall, the level of uncertainty seems higher in 2022 than in 2021, given a broader range of potential outcomes, ranging from uneventful to impactful.

As far as impacts are concerned: we often mention South Florida as a target, yet more often than not the most significant impacts occur elsewhere, as is typical, 2017’s Irma excepted. Interestingly, the analogs that you mentioned featured four major hurricanes within 50 n mi of the City of Miami, Florida (in 1926, 1950, and 1992, respectively), three of which were Category 4+, including two of the most catastrophic in Florida’s history: the 1926 Miami hurricane and Andrew. Also, 1950’s King, like the 1926 hurricane, delivered major-hurricane conditions to Downtown Miami; like Andrew, it was explosively deepening as it made landfall. Intriguingly, both 1926 and 1950 are Years of the Tiger; 1950 also featured Cat-3 Easy, which set a 24h rainfall record of 38.7” in Yankeetown, FL.

Another observation: evidently, the Years of the Tiger that are impactful tend to be exceptionally so. For example, 1926, 1938, 1950, and 1998 all featured major-hurricane impacts on densely populated areas such as Miami, Havana, Long Island, San Juan, and Santo Domingo, to not mention the catastrophic impacts of weaker systems such as Mitch in, among other regions, Central America. Besides Easy, several other storms produced either torrential rainfall or seiches or both: the 1926 Miami hurricane generated a seiche on Lake Okeechobee that drowned hundreds of people, along with 18.5” of rain in the Florida Panhandle. Georges, like Mitch, also yielded catastrophic flooding and mudslides over a broad swath. The 1938 hurricane also exacerbated flooding in the Northeast.

As an aside, here is a compilation of Hurricane / Major Hurricane landfalls on the CONUS during the aforementioned analogs (since 1851):

  • Gulf Coast: 8 / 3 (38%)
  • Peninsular Florida: 5 / 4 (80%)
  • East Coast: 2 / 1 (50%)

Unlike 2021’s set of analogs, 2022’s seems more evenly split between (major) impacts on the Gulf and on peninsular Florida, suggestive of a somewhat higher potential for (significant) impacts on the latter. Once again, given your method’s performance in 2020–1, I am paying attention. 2021 was a Year of the Metal Ox, like 1901 and 1961, and its two outstanding storms—Ida and Sam—were somewhat similar to 1961’s Carla and Esther, respectively. Ida, like Carla, was 2021’s “signature” impact on the Gulf Coast, while Sam, like 1961’s Esther, was a (probable) Category 5 that either did not make landfall or delivered insignificant impacts to land.


Great observations Shell, it really does seem like 2021 followed 1961 with Ida and Sam. The one main exception this season is that 'Hattie' is still missing, this season seems to have winded down fast like many of the other Ox year seasons, perhaps a more 1901-ish ending to the season. Tiger years are among the most eventful, like Rat, Monkey & Rooster, and do have a penchant for hitting South FL quite hard and quite often. Tiger years are wild and quite unpredictable/surprising, like coin flips when it comes to many things such as busy/slow seasons and landfalls vs lots of OTS, and when the flip is an unfortunate one, these years can bring the pain with severe landfalls. It almost seems to alternate ever since 1950, starting with 1950 (unlucky, extremely busy, Easy & King), 1962 (lucky, slow & uneventful), 1974 (unlucky, slow but deadly, Fifi), 1986 (lucky, slow and weak landfalls), 1998 (unlucky and deadly, Georges & Mitch), 2010 (somewhat lucky, few significant landfalls despite being hyperactive), 2022 ??.
The odds overall favor an unlucky 2022, so a nasty landfall is likely regardless if it's a slow or busy season, just eyeballing it from this point of view.

As for the years 1992 & 2012 mentioned, they were merely picked because they're among the most recent 'water years' that might relate more to 2022 IMO, and also as water years go, the Chinese Elements have a polarity too, the Yang and Yin, so I figured the most recent 'Yang Water' years (which end in '2') that would relate to 2022 in overall feel are 1992 and 2012 (I'm expecting a very high-impact storm in what may be a slower season, hurricane number-wise). 1982/2002 would be much less analogous on the other hand. The Water Rabbit year (next year btw) ends in '3', such as 1963, and all years that end in '3' are considered 'Yin Water' years. I figured that the busier or more intense Yang Water years would be decent comparisons to 2022 beside the Tiger Years. Overall though, the Yang Water year that would be the best analog for 2022 would be 1842, the Water Tiger year which was the most busy & intense out of the last 3 such years. Time will tell if an El Nino arises to knock 2022 down into a more 1962/1902 type season. I kinda doubt it though, Water Rabbit has been quite slow as well in the last 180 years so perhaps the 2023 season ends up being the truly slow one.
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