2021 Tropical Waves Thread

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W from 18N southward and
moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
10N to 12N between 26W and 31W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 17N southward and
moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
11N to 15N between 36W and 45W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W from 19N southward across
the Lesser Antilles into NE Venezuela, and moving W around 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over Venezuela.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from 19N southward
across W Panama into the E Pacific, and moving W near 10 to 15
kt. Enhanced by the E end of the Pacific monsoon trough, scattered
to numerous moderate convection are present over Panama, N
Colombia, and the SW Caribbean S of 12N between 73W-84W.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 33W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 27W and 36W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 46W from 17N
southward, moving slowly W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 15N to 23N between 41W and 49W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea along 63W near
the Anegada Passage from 20N southward to across eastern
Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted
in association with this tropical wave over water, however
thunderstorms are occurring over portions of northern Venezuela
and near the A-B-C Islands.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 86W near the Gulf of
Honduras from 19N southward across central Venezuela and
Nicaragua, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Enhanced by the eastern end
of the Pacific monsoon trough, scattered to numerous moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between
73W and 86W, and from 15N to 18N between 84W and 86W.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 52W, from 17N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Isolated showers are noted within
90 nm east of the tropical wave from 08N to 11N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Isolated convection is noted
within 30 nm of the wave axis south of 13N.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave has its axis along 61W, crossing the Lesser
Antilles and into eastern Venezuela, moving W at around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N
to 13N between 53W and 63W, and fresh E winds are occurring behind
the wave axis, eastward to about 55W.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 80W, S of 14N, moving
W around 15 kt. No convection is currently occurring with this
weak tropical wave.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

A tropical wave currently along 15W from 05N to 20N will emerge
off the African coast later today as it moves W at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N, E of 21W.

An Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 33W, from 19N
southward, is moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection has developed from 05N to 16N between 28W and 35W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave with an axis along 70W, extends from
Hispaniola to NW Venezuela, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted E of the wave, S
of 15N between 61W and 70W. Fresh trades are occurring on both
sides of this wave.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 82W, from
12N southward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted N of 12N and W of 79W,
including portions of Panama and Colombia.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

An east Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 20W from 03N to
20N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 06N to 14N between 14W and 20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 37W from 05N to
19N, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is situated at the leading edge
of a Saharan dust plume. As a result of the dry Saharan air, no
significant convection is noted with the wave at this time.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 76W, stretching
from eastern Cuba to NW Colombia, moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in and near the Windward
Passage as well as northern Colombia. Fresh E winds are occurring
E of the wave axis in the southern Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31N, from 18N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 17N between 23W and 34W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W, from 15N southward,
moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection has
developed from 04N to 08N between 45W and 53W.

[CFLHurricane]

8 AM TWD:

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31N, from 18N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 17N between 23W and 34W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W, from 15N southward,
moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection has
developed from 04N to 08N between 45W and 53W.

These waves aren’t much to see on GOES-E, but they look increasingly interesting on the MMIC-TPW. I’d expect the crayons to come out for at least one of them by Friday.

['CaneFreak]

Thursday's 8 AM TWD:

Code: Select all

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 45w from 16N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A distinct surface trough, separated
behind the wave axis, is noted from 08N42W to 13N40W. Scattered
moderate convection is found from 08N-15N between 38W- 44W.

This one is not included in the latest TWO but it is definitely worth a watch. Please see the following URL.
https://imgur.com/a/Rlbnkr0

[Blown Away]

Thursday's 8 AM TWD:

Code: Select all

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 45w from 16N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A distinct surface trough, separated
behind the wave axis, is noted from 08N42W to 13N40W. Scattered
moderate convection is found from 08N-15N between 38W- 44W.

This one is not included in the latest TWO but it is definitely worth a watch. Please see the following URL.
https://imgur.com/a/Rlbnkr0

Agree, this is an area to watch. Definite low level cloud spin.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from 18N southward, now just
west of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A
surface trough is noted in association with this wave. No deep
convection is currently occurring in association with this wave.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 45w from 16N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A distinct surface trough, separated
behind the wave axis, is noted from 08N42W to 13N40W. Scattered
moderate convection is found from 08N-15N between 38W- 44W.

A third tropical wave is near 67W from 15N southward across
Venezuela, and moving W around 15 to 20 kt. The wave is mainly
monitored through the 700 mb trough diagnostics and the 700 mb
rawindsonde observations. No deep convection is currently
occurring in association with this wave.

[Shell Mound]

Thursday's 8 AM TWD:

Code: Select all

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 45w from 16N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A distinct surface trough, separated
behind the wave axis, is noted from 08N42W to 13N40W. Scattered
moderate convection is found from 08N-15N between 38W- 44W.

This one is not included in the latest TWO but it is definitely worth a watch. Please see the following URL.
https://imgur.com/a/Rlbnkr0

https://i.imgur.com/cDcB4ZT.gif
https://i.imgur.com/kPZYtSa.gif

Agree, this is an area to watch. Definite low level cloud spin.

If not for the unfavourable downwelling CCKW currently present over the basin, this system would likely be developing now.

[weeniepatrol]

IMO, this could be a classic sleeper wave...

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

A tropical wave extends along 90W from the northwest Yucatan
Peninsula southward through Guatemala. This is southeast of a
broad upper trough reaching from the lower Mississippi Valley to
the western Bay of Campeche. The interaction of tropical wave with
divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough is
supporting large clusters of showers and thunderstorms across the
south-central Gulf of Mexico and northwest Caribbean Sea. The
northern part of the tropical wave is forecast to move into the
Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre- existing surface trough by
Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to
support gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression
is likely to form on Sunday or Monday before the system moves
onshore along the western Gulf of Mexico coast. The chance of
tropical depression forming over the next 48 hours is medium.
Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce
heavy rains across portions of Central America and the Yucatan
Peninsula through Saturday. Heavy rains are likely to reach
portions of the western Gulf coast late this weekend.

A strong tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic along 15N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
03N-08N between 20W-23W. A tropical depression is likely to form late
this weekend or early next week as the system moves west-
northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde
Islands. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the
progress of this system. The disturbance has a medium chance of
development over the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 37W from 06N-22N,
moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is evident near this
tropical wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 55W from 05N-22N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with
the wave at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 74W from 13N
southward to central Colombia, moving W at 10-15 kt. No
significant convection is noted with this wave at this time.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 19W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 12N to 16N between 17W and 23W. See the Special
Features section for more information on this wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 40W from 23N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is surrounded by dry and
dusty Saharan air which is inhibiting the development of
convection.

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 59W from 22N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows broad
surface curvature with this wave. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 16N to 21N between 56W and 62W.

A Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 77W from 16N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. The interaction with this wave and
the E Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection over the SW Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 25W south of 21N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. A 1010 mb low is analyzed along the wave
near 17N25W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted north of the low from 17N to 20N between 23W and 26W. The
National Hurricane Center is tracking this disturbance for
possible tropical development over the next few days. Currently,
it has a low chance of development over the next 48 hours.

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 47W south of 22N,
moving W at 15 kt. The wave is surrounded by dry Saharan air,
which is inhibiting convection at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 68W south of 21N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave is moving in tandem with an upper
level trough and is producing scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection from 17N to 22N between 65W and 71W, impacting
Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.

A Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 83W south of 15N,
moving W at 10 kt. A few showers are noted near the wave axis,
mainly north of Panama, but no significant convection is
associated with this feature.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W from 03N to 21N, moving W
at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N
to 10N between 30W and 32W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 05N to 22N
moving W 10 to 15 kt. Much drier air at mid levels are hindering
any significant convection near this wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W from 21N southward across
the central Dominican Republic to NW Venezuela, and moving W at
15 to 20 kt. Enhanced by an upper-level low north of the
Dominican Republic near 21N69W, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring from 16N to 17N between 69W and 71W.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 42W from 04N to
17N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 04N to 11N
between 40W and 48W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea along 68W
crossing the Mona passage and moving west at around 15 kt. The
wave is helping to induce scattered moderate convection over the
eastern Caribbean Sea between the Mona Passage, S of Puerto Rico
and The U.S. Virgin Islands. The wave combined with an upper-level
low spinning over Hispaniola will support showers and
thunderstorms over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea along 82W from
18N southward near the border of Panama and Costa Rica into the
eastern Pacific Ocean, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated
moderate convection is near the wave axis from 12N to 15N.

[weeniepatrol]

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD Sept 24.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W, south of 20N,
and it is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 45
nm on either side of the wave axis mainly south of 13N. The
northern part of the wave is embedded in dry Saharan air,
inhibiting the development of showers and thunderstorms.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W, south of 20N,
and it is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 45
nm on either side of the wave axis mainly south of 14N.