2021 Tropical Waves Thread

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cycloneye
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Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#441 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 26, 2021 5:32 am

September 26 8 AM TWD:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W, south of 17N,
moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 11N-14N
between 20W-27W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W, south of
16N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 05N and 10N between 30W and 40W. Satellite imagery
show that the northern part of the wave remains embedded in dry
Saharan air, inhibiting the development of shower and thunderstorm
activity to the north of 11N.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 69W, south of 20N,
and it is moving W around 10-15 kt. No significant deep convection
is noted over water in association with this wave.
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Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#442 Postby AJC3 » Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:58 am

AJC3 wrote:This post bridges the Global Models and Tropical Waves threads. Currently, there's a wave over west-central Africa that all of the global models pick up on as it exits the coast during the next 3-4 days. Between days 4 and 10 days it tracks westward through the MDR with very little fanfare. In fact, the ECMWF dampens this wave out to the point that it's no longer identifiable in about 6-7 days. However, the CMC and GFS show this wave reaching the eastern Caribbean Sea by day 10.

https://i.imgur.com/6V0pHpp.png

Looking further out well into the fantasy-land time frame, the GFS spins this wave up a tropical cyclone just south of Puerto Rico, then has it moving it WNW near the larger islands of the GA at 384hr. Sure, the extended range caveats apply, but I found it mildly interesting nonetheless. I attached a Current METEOSAT image of the wave next to the last panel of the 00Z GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/NN3QSwJ.png



Since there's really not much at all to talk about in the Atlantic basin right now...as a REALLY late follow-up to my post from exactly a week ago, the low-latitude, low amplitude t-wave mentioned above is apparent on satellite this morning moving past 45W toward the Windward Islands. It's been tracked in the TWDAT since it moved off the COA several days ago. It has some pretty decent convection about its axis although the model guidance doesn't really do anything with it.

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave along the coast of west Africa is along 16W
from 03N-19N
, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 150 nm either side of the wave axis from
12N-18N.


Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Mon Oct 04 2021

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W, from 20N
southward
, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: all the
nearby precipitation is to the north and south of the monsoon
trough. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
300 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 20W and
40W.



Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue Oct 05 2021

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W, from 20N
southward
, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: The majority
of the widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
precipitation, that is near the ITCZ also, is within 240 nm to
the east of the tropical wave, and within 440 nm to the west of
the tropical wave, from 04N to 11N.



Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Oct 06 2021

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W, from 19N
southward
, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and widely
scattered strong is from the ITCZ to 14N between 36W and 50W.
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Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#443 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 09, 2021 6:19 am

8 AM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W from 16N southward, moving
W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is where the wave
meets the ITCZ from 06N to 09N between 41W and 47W.

A second tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles along 55W/56W
from 18N southwestward, moving W near 10 kt. A cluster of moderate
to isolated strong convection is along the wave axis covering the
waters from 11N to 14N between 54W and 57W. The wave will bring
showery and windy conditions to the Windward Islands later today,
then the Leeward Islands tonight; and the US/UK Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico late on Sun. It might reach Hispaniola on Mon.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W and extends from Dominican
Republic southward across western Venezuela, moving W near 15 kt.
Convection is limited along the wave axis, with the exception of
moderate to isolated strong convection over Lake Maracaibo.
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Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#444 Postby abajan » Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:29 am

What do you guys make of this?

Image
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Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#445 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:47 am

abajan wrote:What do you guys make of this?

https://i.imgur.com/wJ7S5O0.gif

It’s showing up as Invest 93L now on Tropical Tidbits. Weird. It hasn’t been mentioned in any TWO so far.
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Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#446 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:50 am

aspen wrote:
abajan wrote:What do you guys make of this?

https://i.imgur.com/wJ7S5O0.gif

It’s showing up as Invest 93L now on Tropical Tidbits. Weird. It hasn’t been mentioned in any TWO so far.

It probably developed very rapidly
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Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#447 Postby abajan » Sun Oct 10, 2021 12:40 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
aspen wrote:
abajan wrote:What do you guys make of this?

https://i.imgur.com/wJ7S5O0.gif

It’s showing up as Invest 93L now on Tropical Tidbits. Weird. It hasn’t been mentioned in any TWO so far.

It probably developed very rapidly

On today's date 241 years ago, an extremely powerful hurricane was wreaking havoc on Barbados which isn't terribly far WNW of Invest 93L's current location. Presumably, the environment this time around is far less conducive for development.
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Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#448 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:52 am

8 AM TWD:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 28W, south of 18N
and it is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 04N to 12N and between 27W and
31W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 49W/50W, south
of 18N and it is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted where the wave interacts with
the ITCZ from 05N to 12N and between 48W and 52W. The northern
portion of the wave is surrounded by dry Saharan air and subsident
northerly flow aloft, suppressing the development of showers and
thunderstorms.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 65W, south of 20N,
extends from the Virgin Islands to E Venezuela, and it is moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
seen on satellite imagery from 15N to 20N and between 63W to 65W.
Overnight scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to strong SE-S
winds within 170 nm to the E of the wave axis, mainly from 15N and
20N.

A second Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 80W, south of
20N and it is moving W at 10-15 kts. No deep convection is noted
in association with the wave as it moves across very dry airmass.
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Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#449 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 16, 2021 4:48 am

8 AM TWD 10/16/21.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W south of 19N, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
03N to 10N and between 30W and 35W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 48W south of 19N, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N
between 45W and 50W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W south of 20N, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. No deep convection is observed near the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W south of 19N, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 11N
between 80W and 83W.
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Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#450 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 20, 2021 6:13 am

8 AM TWD 10/20/21.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W from 02N to 14N, moving
westward around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 30W and 40W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W south of 19N, moving
westward around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 09N to 12N between 54W and 58W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 65W south of 19N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 120 nm east of the wave axis south of 14N.
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Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#451 Postby abajan » Wed Oct 20, 2021 8:39 pm

cycloneye wrote:8 AM TWD 10/20/21.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W from 02N to 14N, moving
westward around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 30W and 40W.


The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W south of 19N, moving
westward around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 09N to 12N between 54W and 58W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 65W south of 19N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 120 nm east of the wave axis south of 14N.

The 18z Surface Pressure Analysis shows a low-latitude LOW on that wave.
Should be interesting to see if it's still there on the 0z one.
Image

UPDATE: It's not on the 0z.
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Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#452 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2021 6:29 am

TWD 8 AM 10/24/21. A new wave is introduced off African Coast.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 18W from 16N southward, moving
W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present
E of 20W to the coast of Africa.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 16N southward to
Guayana, moving W around 15 kt. Associated convection is noted
south of 12N between 50W to 60W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W from Hispaniola to W
Venezuela, moving W near 15 kt. Subsidence and drier air aloft is
hindering any significant convection near this wave axis.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W south of 20N, moving
W around 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in
the vicinity of the wave axis.
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