2021 Tropical Waves Thread

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Aric Dunn
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Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles

#1 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:05 pm

Convection on the increase, Marginal short term/Long term models support. Besides SAL far to the north, the environment for the next 48 hours looks good. Afterward, western carrib development appears to be a decent probability.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles

#2 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:44 pm

Watching this closely. Just don't be anywhere near Orlando July 5-11 while I'm on vacation :wink:

This looks to be a bit before that time though. GFS has been consistent on development.
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Re: Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles

#3 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:45 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Watching this closely. Just don't be anywhere near Orlando July 5-11 while I'm on vacation :wink:

This looks to be a bit before that time though. GFS has been consistent on development.


Euro and the EPS have been showing this developing before the islands as well.
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Re: Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles

#4 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 20, 2021 7:11 pm

Possible we see something similar or stronger than Cindy 2017.
Image

For development, main thing it deepens a little as it enters the Caribbean so it' can gain some latitude. Or else it can easily crash into CA, develop over the BOC, and into western Mexico. Also possible it doesn't get deep enough and ends up in the EPAC where it could die or develop later on.
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Re: Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles

#5 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jun 20, 2021 7:14 pm

There is a distinct possibility we see this first spin up in the next couple of days prior to entering the carrib.

Before sunset there was a clear low level vort max and now there is a developing burst of deep convection right over it.

Shear is low and its in a deep moisture pouch.

If it does develop before the islands. it would possibly weaken until western carrib.
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Re: Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles

#6 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jun 20, 2021 8:59 pm

New ASCAT. Several WSW wind barbs. For a small system that is pretty good for ASCAT. .. Marcos last year ASCAT had real hard time closing it off.. Convection appears to be increasing in intensity and slowly expanding.. if that occurs throughout the night tomorrow will be interesting.

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 20, 2021 9:45 pm

Image

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles

#8 Postby Stormybajan » Sun Jun 20, 2021 10:09 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:New ASCAT. Several WSW wind barbs. For a small system that is pretty good for ASCAT. .. Marcos last year ACAT had real hard time closing it off.. Convection appears to be increasing in intensity and slowly expanding.. if that occurs throughout the night tomorrow will be interesting.

https://i.ibb.co/G7WjpFC/Capture.png


Hmmmmmm interesting indeed, its certainly trying with the burst of convection occurring right now maybe if the 00z model runs show development or increase in vorticity maybe we get a yellow X tomorrow?
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Re: Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles

#9 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 20, 2021 11:27 pm

Could see development later on in the run but looks to be more CA interaction so far:
Image
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Re: Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles

#10 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jun 20, 2021 11:43 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Could see development later on in the run but looks to be more CA interaction so far:
https://i.postimg.cc/02ggLKBF/image.png

I’m wondering if this is ex94L
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Re: Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles

#11 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jun 20, 2021 11:48 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Could see development later on in the run but looks to be more CA interaction so far:
https://i.postimg.cc/02ggLKBF/image.png

I’m wondering if this is ex94L



it is not 94L ..

and development in western carrib would not be a CAG setup.

and development before islands is looking like a pretty good possibility right now... especially if convection continues through the night and tomorrow.
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Re: Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles

#12 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:34 am

ABNT20 KNHC 210531
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Claudette, located inland over North Carolina.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a small area of thunderstorm activity. This
system has a slight chance of development during the next couple of
days before upper-level winds become less conducive for further
organization by Thursday. The wave is expected to move westward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles

#13 Postby Stormybajan » Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:34 am

Stormybajan wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:New ASCAT. Several WSW wind barbs. For a small system that is pretty good for ASCAT. .. Marcos last year ACAT had real hard time closing it off.. Convection appears to be increasing in intensity and slowly expanding.. if that occurs throughout the night tomorrow will be interesting.

https://i.ibb.co/G7WjpFC/Capture.png


Hmmmmmm interesting indeed, its certainly trying with the burst of convection occurring right now maybe if the 00z model runs show development or increase in vorticity maybe we get a yellow X tomorrow?


Yellow X it is 8-) 10-10 shot for our tiny guy
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Re: Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles

#14 Postby USTropics » Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:39 am

Here is a rough estimate of observed tropical waves in the ATL/EPAC and their progression over the next 192 hours (first image has outlined ITCZ in green):

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles

#15 Postby USTropics » Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:42 am

00z CMC briefly closes this off in 30 hours:

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles

#16 Postby catskillfire51 » Mon Jun 21, 2021 1:39 am

Euro does as well at 48hrs

USTropics wrote:00z CMC briefly closes this off in 30 hours:

https://i.imgur.com/cdXFCiu.png
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Re: Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles

#17 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Jun 21, 2021 3:43 am

GENESIS007, AL, L, , , , , 77, 2021, DB, O, 2021062106, 9999999999, , 007, , , , GENESIS, , AL772021
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Re: Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles

#18 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 21, 2021 5:26 am

Nancy Smar wrote:
GENESIS007, AL, L, , , , , 77, 2021, DB, O, 2021062106, 9999999999, , 007, , , , GENESIS, , AL772021


Invest comming soon.
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Re: Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles

#19 Postby aspen » Mon Jun 21, 2021 5:37 am

This actually looks pretty good. If it does form, we’ll have to watch out for sudden RI due to its small size, perhaps similar to Beryl, Dorian, and the previous Danny. The NHC says it’ll be within conditions favorable for development until Thursday, which could be enough time for this to become a decent TS.

We might have to watch what it does beyond the Lesser Antilles. Is this the wave that helps spawn the WCar/Gulf system the GFS has been showing for the last few days?
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Re: Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles

#20 Postby catskillfire51 » Mon Jun 21, 2021 5:39 am

Yes it is.

aspen wrote:This actually looks pretty good. If it does form, we’ll have to watch out for sudden RI due to its small size, perhaps similar to Beryl, Dorian, and the previous Danny. The NHC says it’ll be within conditions favorable for development until Thursday, which could be enough time for this to become a decent TS.

We might have to watch what it does beyond the Lesser Antilles. Is this the wave that helps spawn the WCar/Gulf system the GFS has been showing for the last few days?
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