2021 Tropical Waves Thread

[cycloneye]

One of these waves (52W / 39W) according to models develop down the road. We wait and watch.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 43W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 35W
and 43W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 55W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 44W
and 56W, with similar convection noted from 14N to 16N between 57W
and 62W.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 75W from 20N
southward across the approach to the Windward Passage to north
central Colombia, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No deep convection is
noted over water, however scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are noted near the tropical wave axis over portions
of northern Colombia and extreme northwestern Venezuela.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 83W, from 20N
southward across Central America near the Costa Rica-Panama border
and into the far eastern Pacific Ocean, moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
16N to 20N between 83W and 90W, with scattered moderate convection
noted from 17N to 19N between 78W and 81W.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 19N southward and
moving W near 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 09N to 12N between 39W and 43W.

A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W from 20N southward to
Suriname, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are present from 10N to 14N between 49W and 61W,
including the Windward Islands.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 76W from SE Cuba southward
across Jamaica to W Colombia, and moving W near 15 kt. Numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms are occurring over the SW
corner of the basin N of E Panama.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W from 20N southward
across Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica into the E Pacific
Ocean, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is evident across the W central and NW
parts of the basin, including the E coast of the Yucatan

[cycloneye]

That wave around 56W has to be watched as GFS and ECMWF develop it. As soon NHC begins to mention it, it will be separated from this thread.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

A tropical wave has been added to this analysis, with axis
extending along 17W from 04N-20N. Scattered showers are noted in
the vicinity of the wave axis mainly south of 10N.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 36W from 21N
southward and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 35W and 40W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 47W from
19N southward and moving W near 15 kt. No significant convection
is related to this wave at this time.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 61W from 20N
southward to Venezuela, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are present from 11N to 15N
between 58W and 65W, including the Windward Islands.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W from SE Cuba southward
across Jamaica to W Colombia, and moving W near 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis mainly south of
78W.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W from 21N southward
across Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica into the E Pacific
Ocean, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is evident across the W central and NW
parts of the basin west of 82W, including the Yucatan Peninsula.

[ScottNAtlanta]

That wave at 15n and 35w is looking pretty good tonight with a convective flair up and some rotation. Is that the one you were talking about up thread?

[cycloneye]

That wave at 15n and 35w is looking pretty good tonight with a convective flair up and some rotation. Is that the one you were talking about up thread?

That is the one being mentioned at TWO.

[ScottNAtlanta]

That wave at 15n and 35w is looking pretty good tonight with a convective flair up and some rotation. Is that the one you were talking about up thread?

That is the one being mentioned at TWO.

It sure looks like it wants to develop

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

A tropical wave is along 20W, from 19N southward. The wave is
moving W at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
ahead of the wave axis from 05N-08N between 20W-23W.

A weak tropical wave is along 50W, from 20N southward. The wave
is moving W 10 to 15 knots. Convection is limited near the wave
axis.

A second tropical wave is over the Caribbean Sea along 80W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 10N-13N
between 78W-82W. Similar convection is across eastern plains of
Nicaragua.

Another tropical wave is over the Yucatan peninsula crossing near
the Belize/Guatemala border into El Salvador. The wave is helping
to induce convection over parts of Belize, Guatemala and El
Salvador.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W from 19N southward and
moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 02N to 10N between 18W and 28W.

A well defined Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 20N
southward and moving W at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 09N to 19N between 35W and 39W.

A weak Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W from 18N southward and
moving W near 15 knots. Much drier air at mid and upper levels is
hindering any significant convection near this wave.

A robust Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W from 20N southward
across the Virgin Islands to E Venezuela, and moving W near 10
kt. Enhanced by strong trade-wind convergence in the vicinity,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across
the S central and SE Caribbean Basin, and farther E into the
Atlantic from 9N to 14N between 55W and the Windward Islands.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W from 20N southward
across the Costa Rica-Panama border into the E Pacific, and
moving W at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are present near the coast of Honduras, Nicaragua,
Costa Rica and Panama.

A tropical wave is over the E Bay of Campeche near 90W from 21N
southward across S Mexico and Guatemala into the E Pacific, and
moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
evident along the E coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and over
Belize.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 23W from 19N
southward and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 22W and 28W. Some
slow tropical development will be possible over the next several
days while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward
over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

A well defined Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 20N
southward and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted from 07N-21N between 34W and 44W. Little tropical
development is expected during the next couple of days due to
only marginally conducive ocean temperatures. Thereafter,
however, some gradual development will be possible through the
end of the week while the system over the central Atlantic.

A weak Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W from 18N southward
and moving W near 15 kt. Much drier air at mid and upper levels
is hindering any significant convection near this wave.

A robust Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W from 20N southward
across the Virgin Islands to E Venezuela, and moving W near 10
kt. Enhanced by strong trade-wind convergence in the vicinity,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across
the S central and SE Caribbean Basin, and farther E into the
Atlantic from 9N to 14N between 55W and the Windward Islands. A
broad low is expected to form with this wave over the
southwestern Caribbean by late week. Thereafter, environmental
conditions are forecast to become favorable for gradual
development while the system moves over the northwestern
Caribbean.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W from 20N southward
into the E Pacific, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails over land south of 16N between 82W and 87W.

A tropical wave is over the E Bay of Campeche near 92W from 21N
southward across S Mexico and Guatemala into the E Pacific, and
moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
prevails south of 22N between 89W and 95W.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles with axis
along 58W, from 19N southward. The wave is moving W 10 to 15 knots.
Convection is limited near the wave axis.

A second tropical wave is over the Caribbean Sea along 86W from
20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave axis
crosses northern Central America where is enhancing some shower
and thunderstorm activity.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W, south of 19N, moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure is along the wave axis,
where the wave intersects the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate
isolates strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 27W
and 31W. The NHC is tracking this disturbance for possible
tropical cyclone development. For more details, please see the
latest Tropical Weather Outlook.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 48W, south of 18N, moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated to
this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W, south of 20N, moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 11N to 18B between 64W and 71W. This disturbance is
being monitored for possible tropical cyclone development. For
more details, please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook.

[cycloneye]

There are four waves out there. 8 PM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave is noted along 20W from 19N southward,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 11N to 16N E of 20W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W from 17N southward, moving
W at 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this
wave.

Another Atlantic tropical wave has moved farther away from
Tropical Depression Ten, described in the Special Features section
above, and is now along 56W, from 18N southward. It is moving W
at 15 kt. Aside from convection primarily associated with the
tropical depression, scattered moderate convection is noted from
07N to 15N between 53W and 61W.

A Carribbean tropical wave is along 74W from Haiti to Colombia,
moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is currently
associated with this wave.

[captainbarbossa19]

I am interested in the Central Caribbean wave. It has support from the CMC and some Euro ensemble members. Many models send whatever develops into the Gulf.

[cycloneye]

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 240 nm on either side of the
tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 240 nm on either side of the
tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: rainshowers are
possible within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 03N to 08N between 77W and
80W, to the south of the eastern extension of the monsoon trough,
in the coastal plains and in the coastal waters of Colombia and
Panama. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 12N
southward from 80W westward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from
15N southward from 76W westward.

A tropical wave is moving through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico, along 93W/94W, from 17N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: no significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

[IcyTundra]

I am interested in the Central Caribbean wave. It has support from the CMC and some Euro ensemble members. Many models send whatever develops into the Gulf.

GFS and GEFS seem to be the least enthused out of the major models which is interesting because the operational GFS was rather bullish on potential development up until a couple days ago where it stopped showing significant development. CMC continues to insist on something forming as it has for over a week now and some of the euro ensemble members are surprisingly bullish about something developing sometime this week.

[captainbarbossa19]

I am interested in the Central Caribbean wave. It has support from the CMC and some Euro ensemble members. Many models send whatever develops into the Gulf.

GFS and GEFS seem to be the least enthused out of the major models which is interesting because the operational GFS was rather bullish on potential development up until a couple days ago where it stopped showing significant development. CMC continues to insist on something forming as it has for over a week now and some of the euro ensemble members are surprisingly bullish about something developing sometime this week.

Didn't the GFS do something similar with some storm that developed earlier this season? It seems like it hinted at development, dropped it, and then caught back onto it right about when it started happening.

[IcyTundra]

I am interested in the Central Caribbean wave. It has support from the CMC and some Euro ensemble members. Many models send whatever develops into the Gulf.

GFS and GEFS seem to be the least enthused out of the major models which is interesting because the operational GFS was rather bullish on potential development up until a couple days ago where it stopped showing significant development. CMC continues to insist on something forming as it has for over a week now and some of the euro ensemble members are surprisingly bullish about something developing sometime this week.

Didn't the GFS do something similar with some storm that developed earlier this season? It seems like it hinted at development, dropped it, and then caught back onto it right about when it started happening.

GFS did something similar with what became Ida but I think the GFS ensemble was showing a stronger signal than what it is showing for this potential storm.

[AnnularCane]

I am interested in the Central Caribbean wave. It has support from the CMC and some Euro ensemble members. Many models send whatever develops into the Gulf.

GFS and GEFS seem to be the least enthused out of the major models which is interesting because the operational GFS was rather bullish on potential development up until a couple days ago where it stopped showing significant development. CMC continues to insist on something forming as it has for over a week now and some of the euro ensemble members are surprisingly bullish about something developing sometime this week.

Didn't the GFS do something similar with some storm that developed earlier this season? It seems like it hinted at development, dropped it, and then caught back onto it right about when it started happening.

From what others on here have said, it seems to have a habit of doing that.