2021 Tropical Waves Thread

[toad strangler]

i think area have very slim chance becoming td area not area you see td this time a year but could sign that we going see busy july to sep in tropic

GREAT to see you post again floridasun78 !!! Been awhile, welcome back from wherever you were.

I think it's interesting that the NHC doesn't just kill it off after conditions head south. Perhaps an open door for another day down the line.

[floridasun78]

i think area have very slim chance becoming td area not area you see td this time a year but could sign that we going see busy july to sep in tropic

GREAT to see you post again floridasun78 !!! Been awhile, welcome back from wherever you were.

I think it's interesting that the NHC doesn't just kill it off after conditions head south. Perhaps an open door for another day down the line.

ty i was sick doing peak part of season of 2020 so have move to mom house so was not here that much have move comp to her house that were i am now at i hope be here longer this season

[abajan]

i think area have very slim chance becoming td area not area you see td this time a year but could sign that we going see busy july to sep in tropic

GREAT to see you post again floridasun78 !!! Been awhile, welcome back from wherever you were.

I think it's interesting that the NHC doesn't just kill it off after conditions head south. Perhaps an open door for another day down the line.

ty i was sick doing peak part of season of 2020 so have move to mom house so was not here that much have move comp to her house that were i am now at i hope be here longer this season

Sorry to hear you were ill.
Glad to have you back.

[Stormybajan]

Some pretty big blow ups in convection occurring right now, however its lost any circulation it had before to my naked eye. Will have to wait for the gulf for development if it reaches there intact, looking like a rainy Wednesday - Thursday for the islands

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased in coverage associated with
the tropical wave located more than 500 miles east of the Windward
Islands. Some additional development of this disturbance is possible
over the next couple of days before upper-level winds become less
conducive for further organization by Thursday. The system is
expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

[Aric Dunn]

That deep ball of convection on the east slide is rather interesting... hopefully we get good SCAT passes this morning..

Otherwise... western carrib here it comes...

[cycloneye]

[Aric Dunn]

note the 6z euro no longer develops it. And it no longer goes north of the islands ... stays rather low... also the wave energy does not split.

Curious if the 12z Euro will begin to show a western Carib development like the GFS now...

[SoupBone]

note the 6z euro no longer develops it. And it no longer goes north of the islands ... stays rather low... also the wave energy does not split.

Curious if the 12z Euro will begin to show a western Carib development like the GFS now...


https://i.ibb.co/DgrHH8t/Capture.png

Aric, what am I missing? It looks like the 06Z GFS has a low pressure area that moves into the US coast, but not like its previous runs with something more significant. BTW, I can't see your image. Not sure if that's on my end or not.

[Haddox12]

I’m on St. Thomas till Sunday, do we think we’ll get any rain out of this or will it go south?

Apologies, I am supremely amateur but love watching you guys talk about the weather!

[abajan]

note the 6z euro no longer develops it. And it no longer goes north of the islands ... stays rather low... also the wave energy does not split.

Curious if the 12z Euro will begin to show a western Carib development like the GFS now...


https://i.ibb.co/DgrHH8t/Capture.png

Aric, what am I missing? It looks like the 06Z GFS has a low pressure area that moves into the US coast, but not like its previous runs with something more significant. BTW, I can't see your image. Not sure if that's on my end or not.

I'm not seeing his avatar either. Not just his but some other avatars too. It may just be a Storm2K setting and some users have chosen not to display an avatar.

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=171

ICON showing a curved signature off the Yucatan in 171 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like we do have a Circ/Vort max down there.. with some towers starting to rebuild and rotate around it. the GFS showing it slowing down for the next 24 hours and has a better defined circ as well.. curious as to what happens with this.. Unfortunately, as is typical, all the SCATS missed this area lol


Update.. the 12z GFS is really really slow with moving this now.. at 60 hours its still east of the islands.

[SoupBone]

Did the latest GFS run it east of the islands then out to sea? I can't seem to tell where it went.

[Ubuntwo]

Did the latest GFS run it east of the islands then out to sea? I can't seem to tell where it went.

It follows a similar track into the Gulf, just without development.

[wxman57]

I like the last couple of GFS runs better. No Gulf hurricane, just some increased moisture. Same as the Canadian & Euro now. Looking for a peaceful July 4th holiday weekend.

[SoupBone]

I like the last couple of GFS runs better. No Gulf hurricane, just some increased moisture. Same as the Canadian & Euro now. Looking for a peaceful July 4th holiday weekend.

I'm with you, I hope that holds true! Still so far out though.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized associated with the
tropical wave located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands.
In addition, recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate
the wave has not become better defined since yesterday. This system
is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and has a
limited amount of time remaining for development before
upper-level winds become less favorable by Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

[Aric Dunn]

I like the last couple of GFS runs better. No Gulf hurricane, just some increased moisture. Same as the Canadian & Euro now. Looking for a peaceful July 4th holiday weekend.

Sorry... Looks like they are still coming right for you...

[Stormybajan]

Looks like we do have a Circ/Vort max down there.. with some towers starting to rebuild and rotate around it. the GFS showing it slowing down for the next 24 hours and has a better defined circ as well.. curious as to what happens with this.. Unfortunately, as is typical, all the SCATS missed this area lol


Update.. the 12z GFS is really really slow with moving this now.. at 60 hours its still east of the islands.

https://i.ibb.co/cYC5y14/LABELS-19700101-000000-76.gif

https://i.ibb.co/vvBShhJ/Capture.png

Thats a very interesting development there, we know the chances realistically are decreasing for development, however with the quite long moisture pocket , do you see any improvement of organization possible with diurnal maximum tonight?