2021 Tropical Waves Thread

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like we do have a Circ/Vort max down there.. with some towers starting to rebuild and rotate around it. the GFS showing it slowing down for the next 24 hours and has a better defined circ as well.. curious as to what happens with this.. Unfortunately, as is typical, all the SCATS missed this area lol


Update.. the 12z GFS is really really slow with moving this now.. at 60 hours its still east of the islands.

https://i.ibb.co/cYC5y14/LABELS-19700101-000000-76.gif

https://i.ibb.co/vvBShhJ/Capture.png

Thats a very interesting development there, we know the chances realistically are decreasing for development, however with the quite long moisture pocket , do you see any improvement of organization possible with diurnal maximum tonight?

The low level circ/vort max has continued to improve and convection is building back again..

also of note... the wave is not lifting all that much north and so shear will remain low until sometime tomorrow... no reason a brief sheared TD/TS could not spin up.. would not be the first time.

[captainbarbossa19]

Looks like we do have a Circ/Vort max down there.. with some towers starting to rebuild and rotate around it. the GFS showing it slowing down for the next 24 hours and has a better defined circ as well.. curious as to what happens with this.. Unfortunately, as is typical, all the SCATS missed this area lol


Update.. the 12z GFS is really really slow with moving this now.. at 60 hours its still east of the islands.

https://i.ibb.co/cYC5y14/LABELS-19700101-000000-76.gif

https://i.ibb.co/vvBShhJ/Capture.png

Thats a very interesting development there, we know the chances realistically are decreasing for development, however with the quite long moisture pocket , do you see any improvement of organization possible with diurnal maximum tonight?

The low level circ/vort max has continued to improve and convection is building back again..

also of note... the wave is not lifting all that much north and so shear will remain low until sometime tomorrow... no reason a brief sheared TD/TS could not spin up.. would not be the first time.


https://i.ibb.co/NVxBXVR/LABELS-19700101-000000-77.gif

I think this looks better than Claudette ever did.

[Stormybajan]

Looks like we do have a Circ/Vort max down there.. with some towers starting to rebuild and rotate around it. the GFS showing it slowing down for the next 24 hours and has a better defined circ as well.. curious as to what happens with this.. Unfortunately, as is typical, all the SCATS missed this area lol


Update.. the 12z GFS is really really slow with moving this now.. at 60 hours its still east of the islands.

https://i.ibb.co/cYC5y14/LABELS-19700101-000000-76.gif

https://i.ibb.co/vvBShhJ/Capture.png

Thats a very interesting development there, we know the chances realistically are decreasing for development, however with the quite long moisture pocket , do you see any improvement of organization possible with diurnal maximum tonight?

The low level circ/vort max has continued to improve and convection is building back again..

also of note... the wave is not lifting all that much north and so shear will remain low until sometime tomorrow... no reason a brief sheared TD/TS could not spin up.. would not be the first time.


https://i.ibb.co/NVxBXVR/LABELS-19700101-000000-77.gif

As usual you maybe on the ball when checking earthnull:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-54.56,12.72,3839/loc=-53.062,12.624

[Kingarabian]

GFS now has this potentially developing in the sub tropics.

[USTropics]

GFS now has this potentially developing in the sub tropics.
https://i.imgur.com/AJ73bmH.png

Appears the northern wave axis has fractured today, which has resulted in a slow down in movement as Aric mentioned earlier:


GFS Analysis:

[Aric Dunn]

The recent (relatively) large new burst is right over that llc seen before sun down.. watch that cloesly

[chaser1]

Nope, I just don't see this wave developing under the increasing shear pattern. The trough hanging tough near Jamaica doesn't seem to be in any hurry to pinch off, close, and push west.. plus,, this feature looks to feed into a fast east-approaching "mother of all ULL's" barreling westward toward the Bahamas over the next 5-7 days. I think the GFS solution seems reasonable for potential development of the southern leg of the wave to eventually make it's way into the W. Caribbean where pressures will be low and upper level winds far more conducive. Our little guy will just have to go under-cover for a few days until emerging in the West/Central Carib.

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah I'm not expecting anything in the short term but I could see this making a run for development later on though. Would probably be another weak system but could still be damaging.

[floridasun78]

wave may not get west carribbean look like getting weaker as move west let see how look in morning we should know next 24 hours

[Stormybajan]

Im not sure what to think of the wave right now. Convection has diminished over the past 5 hours (trying to flair back up again), the shear doesnt look to be horrendous by the islands (20-25 knots) however its not looking good for survival through the islands. I would say i'm surprised by the fragility of the wave but I had to check myself again to realize its JUNE 23RD!

[Aric Dunn]

Im not sure what to think of the wave right now. Convection has diminished over the past 5 hours (trying to flair back up again), the shear doesnt look to be horrendous by the islands (20-25 knots) however its not looking good for survival through the islands. I would say i'm surprised by the fragility of the wave but I had to check myself again to realize its JUNE 23RD!

There are always pulses during these stages..

what to look for is the low level structure... and it is quite good..

jumped about a half a degree NW.. to around 12 N . the circ is quite easily seen in IR.

convection building in SW and NE quads..

overall still fairly small. but it has expanded.

possible rushed Td/TS tomorrow while sheared..

[StPeteMike]

If something does form, we really have at least a week before something starts coming together. Luckily for us on the Gulf Coast, we can see if the GFS is actually sniffing something out with future Enrique in the EPAC forming a few days before. The GFS has been pretty reliable at least on favorable conditions/storm formations for both basins.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a
few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands remain disorganized.
Additional development of this system is unlikely while moving
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph into an area of stronger
upper-level winds by Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

[Aric Dunn]

Well the question of whether there is circ has been answered ( overslept today ugghh) looks like the northern half of the wave has it a pocket of less divergent flow keeping convection from really building last night.

But you can clearly see the two vorticities this morning..

the area of convection heading into trinidad appears to be what may eventually develop in the western carrib. While the northern vorticity either pulses for several days or washes out.

[SoupBone]

So the 06Z GFS drops this system again? Gonna be a lot of flip flopping in the coming days I guess till something more solid forms.

[StPeteMike]

It’ll likely be back at the 12z. Claudette had many runs that showed as nothing but some rain.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

EURO 00z and GFS 06z for 6/23/2021 showed an area of vorticity recurving just East of Florida, with 6zGFS showing separate vorticity going into the Western Gulf of Mexico. I wonder if these models split this wave and take one lobe north of the islands and towards FL's East Coast, and a second lobe towards the western GOM. These lobes are very weak and very subtle showing up on 850 mb vort/wind charts.

[Stormybajan]

Looks like the energy associated with the wave like others have said has split off in 2. The southern portion should the one to look at in the coming days for any development down the road, but it has the task of surviving that shear first.

[Aric Dunn]

I wonder if we are about to get a good pop of convection with this shortly...

convection is building and the overall low level cloud deck is thickening.. there is the shear of course, but that has not stopped many systems.

[SoupBone]

12Z GFS found it again and sends something toward the Corpus Christi area on the 4th of July. Great.