2021 Tropical Waves Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139008
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#381 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2021 6:38 pm

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 51W from
20N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers
are in the vicinity of the wave axis.


A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 84W
from south of 21N to northern Costa Rica. THe wave is moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
over land mainly south of 15N between 83W-88W.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8908
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#382 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Aug 16, 2021 6:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:
A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 51W from
20N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers
are in the vicinity of the wave axis.


A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 84W
from south of 21N to northern Costa Rica. THe wave is moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
over land mainly south of 15N between 83W-88W.

I see a typo on the second half, clearly someone was in a hurry to post this . . .
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139008
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#383 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 17, 2021 7:07 am

8 AM TWD:

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 54W from 20N
southward to inland Suriname. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the
wave from 09N to 10N and west of the wave from 09N to 10N to
inland the coast Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 86W from 22N
southward to northern Costa Rica, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No
convection is noted at this time.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139008
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#384 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 17, 2021 7:07 am

8 AM TWD:

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 39W from 03N
to 23N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Only isolated showers
and thunderstorms are within 120 nm east of the wave from 03N to
10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 54W from 20N
southward to inland Suriname. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the
wave from 09N to 10N and west of the wave from 09N to 10N to
inland the coast Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 86W from 22N
southward to northern Costa Rica, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No
convection is noted at this time.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139008
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#385 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 17, 2021 2:24 pm

2 PM TWD:

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W from 20N
southward to inland Suriname. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 07N to 10N
Between 53W to 60W to inland the coast Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 86W from 21N
southward to northern Costa Rica, moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted on the southern end
Of the wave axis over the eastern Pacific from 05N to 11N between
82W to 89W.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139008
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#386 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 17, 2021 7:25 pm

8 PM TWD:

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W from
02N to 21N, moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted in the vicinity of the wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 59W from 20N
southward to inland Guyana, moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted south of 11N
between 58W to 62W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 88W from
19N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are noted on the southern end of the wave axis
over the eastern Pacific.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139008
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#387 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:42 am

8 AM TWD:

A central Atlantic wave has its axis along 46W from 03N to 21N.
It is moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is
noted with this wave.

A tropical wave is entering the far eastern Caribbean along
62W. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is 120 nm either side of the wave from 09N to 11N.

The earlier analyzed western Caribbean tropical wave has moved
well inland Central, with its southern portion over the eastern
Pacific. Please refer to the eastern Pacific Tropical Weather
Discussion for details on this wave.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139008
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#388 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 18, 2021 1:36 pm

2 PM TWD:

A central Atlantic wave has its axis along 49W south of 20N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers are possible near the
wave axis.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean has its axis along 63W
from 20N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the southern end of the wave from the coast
of Venezuela to 12N and between 62W to 65W.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139008
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#389 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:03 pm

8 PM TWD:

A new Atlantic tropical wave was identified near 23W from 19N
southward. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N-13N
between 22W-28W.

A central Atlantic wave has its axis along 51W south of 20N,
moving westward at 15 kt. No significant deep convection is
currently associated with this wave.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean has its axis along
66W from 20N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant
deep convection is currently associated with this wave.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139008
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#390 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:07 am

8 AM TWD:

A tropical wave extends from 02N to 19N with axis near 26W, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 15N
between 20W and 31W.

A tropical wave extends from 03N to 19N with axis near 37W, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 13N
between 32W and 47W.

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 20N with axis near 56W, moving
W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstms associated with it
are affecting the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave extends S of 20N with axis near 69W, moving W at
around 15 kt. No significant deep convection is currently
associated with this wave.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Jr0d
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1173
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 am
Location: Cayo Hueso

Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#391 Postby Jr0d » Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:42 pm

Visible shows some good spin on the wave around 28W and the wave emerging off of Africa shows some spin.

SAL is an issue, but there is some model support that one or both of these may do something.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139008
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#392 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 19, 2021 1:06 pm

2 PM TWD:

A tropical wave is along 28W from 21N southward, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N
between 24W and 33W.

A tropical wave is along 38W from 22N southward, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N
between 38W and 43W.

A tropical wave is along 58W from 22N southward, moving W at
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is impacting mainly
the Windward Islands, southern Leeward Islands, and E Caribbean,
within an area from 12N to 17N between 60W and 65W.

A tropical wave is along 71W from 22N southward, moving W at
around 10-15 kt. No convection is noted with the wave at this time.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139008
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#393 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 19, 2021 7:07 pm

A tropical wave is along 39W/40W from 21N southward, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is on either side of the
wave axis from 06N to 12N between 35W and 45W.

A tropical wave is along 59W/60W from 21N southward, moving W at
around 15 kt. The wave is generating scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly over the Windward Islands and the eastern
Caribbean E of 65W. Moisture associated with this wave will
continue to impact the eastern Caribbean and parts of the Lesser
Antilles tonight and Fri.

A tropical wave is along 72W extending from Hispaniola to western
Venezuela. It is moving W at around 10-15 kt. The wave is likely
enhancing some convective activity over western Venezuela, including
lake Maracaibo.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139008
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#394 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:43 am

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 42W south of 21N,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 06N to 11N between 40W and 50W.

A tropical wave is in the far eastern Caribbean Sea along 63W
south of 22N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are near the tropical wave axis, mainly
from 12N to 17N between 59W and 66W. Moisture associated with
this wave will continue to impact the eastern Caribbean and parts
of the Lesser Antilles today.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 75W south of 22N,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Limited convection is over water however
scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over portions of
northern Colombia and far northwest Venezuela, including the Lake
Maracaibo region.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4833
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#395 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:17 am

Getting ready to make our move into September soon. The USA mainland has lucked out so far with the direction the tropical disturbances have been heading, we'll see if our luck will continue...
0 likes   

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4521
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#396 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:23 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:Getting ready to make our move into September soon. The USA mainland has lucked out so far with the direction the tropical disturbances have been heading, we'll see if our luck will continue...

Huh? The US has had 4 TS landfalls already and one of them was nearly a hurricane. Not to mention there will likely be a hurricane hit in the NE in a few days from Henri. I wouldn't call 5 landfalls by the end of August lucking out...
3 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4833
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#397 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:49 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Getting ready to make our move into September soon. The USA mainland has lucked out so far with the direction the tropical disturbances have been heading, we'll see if our luck will continue...

Huh? The US has had 4 TS landfalls already and one of them was nearly a hurricane. Not to mention there will likely be a hurricane hit in the NE in a few days from Henri. I wouldn't call 5 landfalls by the end of August lucking out...



Let me re-phrase that then. The USA mainland has lucked out so far without any hurricanes striking the USA mainland....We'll see about Henri, too early to call...................
And you are missing my point. The point being that there has been the potential of the situation being much much worse with all of the storms that have developed recently and we've gotten off with only tropical storms so far???? I would call that Damn lucky!!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139008
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#398 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:49 pm

A newly analyzed Atlantic tropical wave is just off the African
coast near 17W from 20N southward and moving W at 5 to 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 10N to 18N between the
African coast and 24W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W from 20N southward and
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 10N to 15N between 29W and 35W.

A third Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W from 21N southward of
and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 05N to 12N between 42W and 50W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W from 21N southward across
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands to Venezuela, and moving W at
15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
over the Windward Islands and E central Caribbean.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from E Cuba southward
to N Colombia, and moving W near 10 kt. Much drier air at mid
levels is hindering significant convection from flaring up near
this wave.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139008
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#399 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:46 am

8 AM TWD:

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 49W south of 21N,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 13N and between 43W and 55W.

A tropical wave is in the Carribbean Sea along 69W south of 21N,
extending from near the eastern Dominican Republic southward to
western Venezuela, moving W at around 15 kt. The tropical wave is
enhancing the formation of a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms over Venezuela.

A tropical wave is in the Carribbean Sea along 78W south of 20N,
extending from eastern Cuba and western Jamaica southward to
eastern Panama, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 76W and 80W.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139008
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Tropical Waves Thread

#400 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:45 pm

8 PM TWD:

Another Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 39W from
19N southward and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 35W and 40W.

A third Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 52W from
21N southward and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 10N to 15N and between 47W and 55W.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 72W from 21N
southward across Hispaniola to NW Venezuela and moving W near 15
kt. Drier air at the mid levels continue to hinder significant
convection near this wave.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W from 20N southward
across central Panama to the E Pacific Ocean, and moving W at 10
to 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery, as
well as scatterometer data. Scattered too numerous moderate
convection prevails from 15N to 20N between 76W and 85W.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: hcane27, revjohn and 40 guests