How damaging will the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season be?

[IcyTundra]

So far, this hurricane season has cost $52G in damage. That could rise at any moment. There are still 25 days left of September, not to mention October and November.

It doesn't look like we are going to get a La Nina as strong as last year, if we get one at all, so hopefully we won't see the season go insane churning out major after major like we did in autumn last year.

How strong was the La Nina last year? I remember the ENSO last year was cool neutral until about the middle part of September where it was classified as a La Nina.

[Chris90]

So far, this hurricane season has cost $52G in damage. That could rise at any moment. There are still 25 days left of September, not to mention October and November.

It doesn't look like we are going to get a La Nina as strong as last year, if we get one at all, so hopefully we won't see the season go insane churning out major after major like we did in autumn last year.

How strong was the La Nina last year? I remember the ENSO last year was cool neutral until about the middle part of September where it was classified as a La Nina.

The Niña was moderate last year, peaking at -1.3 during the OND trimonthly. Stronger Niñas don't correlate perfectly with increased activity or more intense activity though. 2005 didn't reach Niña levels until the OND period, it was a weak Niña, and it only lasted for 5 trimonthlies. 2017 was another Niña that didn't peak as high as others or last as long and set a September ACE record. For perspective, the Niña of 07-08 peaked stronger and lasted longer than any of those I mentioned and 2007 only managed to produce 2 majors. Dean and Felix were both high end for sure, but 2007 didn't produce activity at levels that some would associate with a stronger Niña.

[AlphaToOmega]

So far, this hurricane season has cost $54.5G in damage, with most of that coming from Hurricane Ida. I believe this hurricane season could cost $80G-$90G once everything is done. With an impending favorable October pattern it is difficult to see how there will not be a major tropical hazard, for most tropical activity in the North Atlantic during October is in the Western Atlantic.