How many ACE units will Larry get?
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cycloneye
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How many ACE units will Larry get?
Making a poll with this ACE question that will close for voting on Friday September 4th at 3:49 PM EDT.
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cycloneye
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Re: How many ACE units will Larry get?
Only 11 votes? Those who want to vote in this one have until Friday at 3:49 PM EDT so hurry.
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Stormybajan
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Re: How many ACE units will Larry get?
Might be low balling Larry might im going to say 26-30 ACE...best looking 50 mph storm I've ever seen 
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weeniepatrol
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Re: How many ACE units will Larry get?
weeniepatrol wrote:Could I revise my 26-30 vote to 40+?
Haha, same
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cycloneye
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Re: How many ACE units will Larry get?
Any member who has voted and likes to change the vote can do so as I edited the poll to allow that action.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: How many ACE units will Larry get?
I don’t see why it won’t reach at least 30 ACE units and could see as many as 50-60.
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Re: How many ACE units will Larry get?
cycloneye wrote:Any member who has voted and likes to change the vote can do so as I edited the poll to allow that action.
Perhaps I didn't spot it, but how exactly can you change your vote? I don't see a button for it or anything like that.
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cycloneye
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Re: How many ACE units will Larry get?
kevin wrote:cycloneye wrote:Any member who has voted and likes to change the vote can do so as I edited the poll to allow that action.
Perhaps I didn't spot it, but how exactly can you change your vote? I don't see a button for it or anything like that.
The box to the left you put the checkmark on the option you want to vote and take the other off.
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Extratropical94
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Re: How many ACE units will Larry get?
Larry has generated 3.7525 units of ACE so far. Should the current NHC forecast verify, this number will be close to 30 five days from now
TIME KT ACE TOTAL
-72H 30 0.0000 0.0000
-66H 30 0.0000 0.0000
-60H 30 0.0000 0.0000
-54H 35 0.1225 0.1225
-48H 40 0.1600 0.2825
-42H 45 0.2025 0.4850
-36H 55 0.3025 0.7875
-30H 60 0.3600 1.1475
-24H 65 0.4225 1.5700
-18H 70 0.4900 2.0600
-12H 70 0.4900 2.5500
-6H 75 0.5625 3.1125
0H 80 0.6400 3.7525
--------------------------
6H 85 0.7225 4.4750
12H 90 0.8100 5.2850
18H 95 0.9025 6.1875
24H 100 1.0000 7.1875
30H 100 1.0000 8.1875
36H 105 1.1025 9.2900
42H 110 1.2100 10.5000
48H 115 1.3225 11.8225
54H 115 1.3225 13.1450
60H 120 1.4400 14.5850
66H 120 1.4400 16.0250
72H 120 1.4400 17.4650
78H 120 1.4400 18.9050
84H 120 1.4400 20.3450
90H 115 1.3225 21.6675
96H 115 1.3225 22.9900
102H 115 1.3225 24.3125
108H 110 1.2100 25.5225
114H 110 1.2100 26.7325
120H 110 1.2100 27.9425
-72H 30 0.0000 0.0000
-66H 30 0.0000 0.0000
-60H 30 0.0000 0.0000
-54H 35 0.1225 0.1225
-48H 40 0.1600 0.2825
-42H 45 0.2025 0.4850
-36H 55 0.3025 0.7875
-30H 60 0.3600 1.1475
-24H 65 0.4225 1.5700
-18H 70 0.4900 2.0600
-12H 70 0.4900 2.5500
-6H 75 0.5625 3.1125
0H 80 0.6400 3.7525
--------------------------
6H 85 0.7225 4.4750
12H 90 0.8100 5.2850
18H 95 0.9025 6.1875
24H 100 1.0000 7.1875
30H 100 1.0000 8.1875
36H 105 1.1025 9.2900
42H 110 1.2100 10.5000
48H 115 1.3225 11.8225
54H 115 1.3225 13.1450
60H 120 1.4400 14.5850
66H 120 1.4400 16.0250
72H 120 1.4400 17.4650
78H 120 1.4400 18.9050
84H 120 1.4400 20.3450
90H 115 1.3225 21.6675
96H 115 1.3225 22.9900
102H 115 1.3225 24.3125
108H 110 1.2100 25.5225
114H 110 1.2100 26.7325
120H 110 1.2100 27.9425
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
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Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
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Re: How many ACE units will Larry get?
Extratropical94 wrote:Larry has generated 3.7525 units of ACE so far. Should the current NHC forecast verify, this number will be close to 30 five days from nowTIME KT ACE TOTAL
-72H 30 0.0000 0.0000
-66H 30 0.0000 0.0000
-60H 30 0.0000 0.0000
-54H 35 0.1225 0.1225
-48H 40 0.1600 0.2825
-42H 45 0.2025 0.4850
-36H 55 0.3025 0.7875
-30H 60 0.3600 1.1475
-24H 65 0.4225 1.5700
-18H 70 0.4900 2.0600
-12H 70 0.4900 2.5500
-6H 75 0.5625 3.1125
0H 80 0.6400 3.7525
--------------------------
6H 85 0.7225 4.4750
12H 90 0.8100 5.2850
18H 95 0.9025 6.1875
24H 100 1.0000 7.1875
30H 100 1.0000 8.1875
36H 105 1.1025 9.2900
42H 110 1.2100 10.5000
48H 115 1.3225 11.8225
54H 115 1.3225 13.1450
60H 120 1.4400 14.5850
66H 120 1.4400 16.0250
72H 120 1.4400 17.4650
78H 120 1.4400 18.9050
84H 120 1.4400 20.3450
90H 115 1.3225 21.6675
96H 115 1.3225 22.9900
102H 115 1.3225 24.3125
108H 110 1.2100 25.5225
114H 110 1.2100 26.7325
120H 110 1.2100 27.9425
If shear isn’t as high as the ECMWF-based SHIPS says for the 4-8 day range, Larry could maintain Cat 4 intensity or undergo a second intensification phase over warmer and much more OHC-rich waters, which will bump up its ACE total even more. Even by sticking to the NHC forecast, it’ll surpass Teddy’s total of ~27 ACE.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Extratropical94
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Re: How many ACE units will Larry get?
18Z Update + NHC forecast from advisory 13 (including upper and lower bounds for interpolated 6-hourly values)
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
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Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
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Extratropical94
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Re: How many ACE units will Larry get?
24 hours later.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
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Stormybajan
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Re: How many ACE units will Larry get?
Welp, with Larry about to get downgraded to a 110 mph hurricane im starting to feel very confident in my 26-30 ACE prediction 
Edit: As I say this...NHC stick with 115 mph for Larry
Edit: As I say this...NHC stick with 115 mph for Larry
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Sad West Indies and Manchester United fan ⚽️
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Extratropical94
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Re: How many ACE units will Larry get?
Looks like Larry will end up around 34 ACE
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
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Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
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AlphaToOmega
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Re: How many ACE units will Larry get?
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 31 August 8 pm CVT 30 0
2 1 September 2 am CVT 30 0
3 1 September 8 am CVT 40 0.1600
4 1 September 2 pm CVT 45 0.2025
5 1 September 8 pm CVT 60 0.3600
6 1 September 11 pm AST 60 0.3600
7 2 September 5 am AST 65 0.4225
8 2 September 11 am AST 70 0.4900
9 2 September 5 pm AST 70 0.4900
10 2 September 11 pm AST 75 0.5625
11 3 September 5 am AST 80 0.6400
12 3 September 11 am AST 80 0.6400
13 3 September 5 pm AST 85 0.7225
14 3 September 11 pm AST 100 1.0000
15 4 September 5 am AST 100 1.0000
16 4 September 11 am AST 110 1.2100
17 4 September 5 pm AST 110 1.2100
18 4 September 11 pm AST 105 1.1025
19 5 September 5 am AST 105 1.1025
20 5 September 11 am AST 110 1.2100
21 5 September 5 pm AST 110 1.2100
22 5 September 11 pm AST 110 1.2100
23 6 September 5 am AST 105 1.1025
24 6 September 11 am AST 105 1.1025
25 6 September 5 pm AST 110 1.2100
26 6 September 11 pm AST 110 1.2100
27 7 September 5 am AST 105 1.1025
28 7 September 11 am AST 100 1.0000
29 7 September 5 pm AST 100 1.0000
30 7 September 11 pm AST 100 1.0000
31 8 September 5 am AST 100 1.0000
32 8 September 11 am AST 95 0.9025
33 8 September 5 pm AST 95 0.9025
34 8 September 11 pm AST 85 0.7225
35 9 September 5 am AST 85 0.7225
36 9 September 11 am AST 80 0.6400
37 9 September 5 pm AST 80 0.6400
Total 29.5625
1 31 August 8 pm CVT 30 0
2 1 September 2 am CVT 30 0
3 1 September 8 am CVT 40 0.1600
4 1 September 2 pm CVT 45 0.2025
5 1 September 8 pm CVT 60 0.3600
6 1 September 11 pm AST 60 0.3600
7 2 September 5 am AST 65 0.4225
8 2 September 11 am AST 70 0.4900
9 2 September 5 pm AST 70 0.4900
10 2 September 11 pm AST 75 0.5625
11 3 September 5 am AST 80 0.6400
12 3 September 11 am AST 80 0.6400
13 3 September 5 pm AST 85 0.7225
14 3 September 11 pm AST 100 1.0000
15 4 September 5 am AST 100 1.0000
16 4 September 11 am AST 110 1.2100
17 4 September 5 pm AST 110 1.2100
18 4 September 11 pm AST 105 1.1025
19 5 September 5 am AST 105 1.1025
20 5 September 11 am AST 110 1.2100
21 5 September 5 pm AST 110 1.2100
22 5 September 11 pm AST 110 1.2100
23 6 September 5 am AST 105 1.1025
24 6 September 11 am AST 105 1.1025
25 6 September 5 pm AST 110 1.2100
26 6 September 11 pm AST 110 1.2100
27 7 September 5 am AST 105 1.1025
28 7 September 11 am AST 100 1.0000
29 7 September 5 pm AST 100 1.0000
30 7 September 11 pm AST 100 1.0000
31 8 September 5 am AST 100 1.0000
32 8 September 11 am AST 95 0.9025
33 8 September 5 pm AST 95 0.9025
34 8 September 11 pm AST 85 0.7225
35 9 September 5 am AST 85 0.7225
36 9 September 11 am AST 80 0.6400
37 9 September 5 pm AST 80 0.6400
Total 29.5625
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Re: How many ACE units will Larry get?
It’ll be a close call between the 26-30 and 31+ votes. Larry isn’t looking very good this evening.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: How many ACE units will Larry get?
Beats Teddy from 2020...
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Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
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cycloneye
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Re: How many ACE units will Larry get?
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