How strong will Larry be?

[AlphaToOmega]

AL122021, also known as Tropical Storm Larry, is currently a tropical storm located south of Cape Verde. The NHC forecasts it will become a major hurricane, and this is supported by global and hurricane models. The MDR is currently uniformly above-average in terms of sea surface temperatures. According to the latest OISSTv2 analysis, the MDR is 0.644 degrees Celsius above-average. There is one question: how strong will Larry be?

1. 45 knots
2. 50-60 knots
3. 65-80 knots
4. 85-95 knots
5. 100-110 knots
6. 115-135 knots
7. 140-155 knots
8. ≥160 knots

[Chris90]

My vote is for 115-135kts, specifically 125kts. Pressure 942mbs.

[ElectricStorm]

#6

[cycloneye]

Made the poll that will close for voting on Thursday the 2nd at 2:01 PM EDT.

[aspen]

Probably in the range of 120-130 kt, similar to Teddy and Lorenzo at their initial peaks.

[FireRat]

Gonna go with 140 kt, around 920 - 925 mb. This thing has a decent shot at going Cat 5, in the perfect time of year and MDR track. Perhaps a comparable storm would be Hurricane Esther 1961, intensity wise and more or less trackwise although Larry is more likely to recurve sooner. Hopefully he will not threaten land because he has potential to be quite a beast.

[kevin]

Sometimes you gotta take a risk, so why not, I'm gonna go with 140 kt. I do think a low-end cat 4 is more likely, but I just have this gut feeling that this could be a big one, similar to Isabel or Irma, but unlike those two hopefully OTS.

[zal0phus]

I think Larry will get to 155 mph, just barely outpacing Ida in wind but remaining in the mid-930s for pressure. I see it being a bit of a Jose 2017 clone.

[CrazyC83]

Came in late. My guess is 120 kt and 944 mb.

[AlphaToOmega]

Larry is a major hurricane. So far, everyone who voted in this poll could be correct. We just have to wait and see.

[AlphaToOmega]

Larry is currently stuck at Category III intensify likely due to an eyewall replacement cycle. We will see if it can intensify further.

[kevin]

Of course way too late for me to change predictions, but unless something crazy happens I don't think it'll come anywhere close to the 140 kt peak I mentioned. Perhaps it can make a run for a low-end cat 4 (115 kt) now that the EWRC is finished but I don't think it can become much stronger than that with the shear forecast.

[aspen]

RIP to 96% of the people who voted, and congrats to the few who voted for a Cat 3.

[Teban54]

Welp.

Maybe Larry could have reached Cat 4 if it didn't perform a bajillion EWRCs.

[SconnieCane]

Welp.

Maybe Larry could have reached Cat 4 if it didn't perform a bajillion EWRCs.

Yeah. Larry was kind of underwhelming. Although I didn't vote in this, figured a solid 120-125kt C4 was a lock. I saw some people opine that Larry's circulation became so large, coupled with its relatively slow movement, that upwelling from its outer bands actually lowered SSTS in the path of the core before it got there, thus keeping a lid on its intensity even when it was in the most favorable UL conditions yesterday. That seems to be as good an explanation as any.