Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan (Is Invest 94L)

[Craters]

The 00Z GFS is seeing the dry air, too, most of the way to Galveston Bay. (And I gotta say, that ain't no hay.)*



Plus, if you look at the upper-level winds around the ridge over Mexico -- the one that Wxman was talking about, I'm guessing -- it really does look as if the GFS is seeing some pretty healthy (upper-level) shear for most of the way to landfall.



*Gotta be a geezer and a half to get that one.

[Steve]

The GEFS is quite a bit further west than the op.

Ensembles (anecdotally) seem to have had that bias a few days out in the west basin this season.

[Steve]

The 00Z GFS is seeing the dry air, too, most of the way to Galveston Bay. (And I gotta say, that ain't no hay.)*

https://i.ibb.co/jWTRKn7/RH.jpg

Plus, if you look at the upper-level winds around the ridge over Mexico -- the one that Wxman was talking about, I'm guessing -- it really does look as if the GFS is seeing some pretty healthy (upper-level) shear for most of the way to landfall.

https://i.ibb.co/m4hKFZT/ULWind.jpg

*Gotta be a geezer and a half to get that one.

That only appears to limit the level of organization but not so much rainfall rates at the coast which appears to be the main threat as of now.

[Craters]

The 00Z GFS is seeing the dry air, too, most of the way to Galveston Bay. (And I gotta say, that ain't no hay.)*

https://i.ibb.co/jWTRKn7/RH.jpg

Plus, if you look at the upper-level winds around the ridge over Mexico -- the one that Wxman was talking about, I'm guessing -- it really does look as if the GFS is seeing some pretty healthy (upper-level) shear for most of the way to landfall.

https://i.ibb.co/m4hKFZT/ULWind.jpg

*Gotta be a geezer and a half to get that one.

That only appears to limit the level of organization but not so much rainfall rates at the coast which appears to be the main threat as of now.

Hi, Steve -- Yep. I agree 100%. Not obvious, I guess, but I was continuing my response to SoupBone's comment about the pulsating intensity of the system as it approaches Texas in the 00Z GFS.

[SoupBone]

The Euro makes this all clear as mud. It takes the system deep into Texas over San Antonio.

[Cpv17]

The Euro makes this all clear as mud. It takes the system deep into Texas over San Antonio.

Then it sends it towards Houston lol

[SoupBone]

The Euro makes this all clear as mud. It takes the system deep into Texas over San Antonio.

Then it sends it towards Houston lol

This run would support what wxman was saying, Houston and the whole Texas coast would get a bunch of rain from a sloppy depression-like system. I wonder what the next GFS will do. This was way further west from this Euro run.

[Cpv17]

The Euro makes this all clear as mud. It takes the system deep into Texas over San Antonio.

Then it sends it towards Houston lol

This run would support what wxman was saying, Houston and the whole Texas coast would get a bunch of rain from a sloppy depression-like system. I wonder what the next GFS will do. This was way further west from this Euro run.

Yeah, no kidding. That would be a pretty good rainmaker for us with that track.

[SoupBone]

The Euro dumps over 24 inches of rain in Houston.

[IcyTundra]

Interesting that the highest rain totals are further inland according to the Euro.

[SoupBone]

12Z QPF

[grapealcoholic]

I wouldn't be concerned with dry air. It won't have any problem firing convection over 31C waters

[Cpv17]

12Z QPF

https://i.imgur.com/VbCMCUe.gif

Confidence is increasing. Not too often you see the WPC break out the yellow.

[IcyTundra]

Often times WPC is pretty conservative in their rainfall predictions some areas can easily see 15+ inches of rain imo.

[kassi]

It's 94L now.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=122258

[InfernoFlameCat]

I like how a trough connects Larry, former Mindy, and Invest 94L. Reminds me of last year when Teddy was connected to Beta in a similar fashion. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=g ... =undefined