Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan (Is Invest 94L)

[Clearcloudz]

True, but I don't think it is very wise to trust any storm that forms in the Gulf at the climatological peak of the season.

It also is showing that models cannot be trusted in the 5 day window anymore either.

I mean there's no defined center so this isn't all that unbelievable.

I know but i'm saying there is a lot of flip flopping for a storm within 5 day window.

[SoupBone]

It also is showing that models cannot be trusted in the 5 day window anymore either.

I mean there's no defined center so this isn't all that unbelievable.

I know but i'm saying there is a lot of flip flopping for a storm within 5 day window.

Really more like 72 hours!

[Clearcloudz]

18 GEFS Ensemble Run showing eastern members coming in stronger

[Craters]

This sure looks like a lot of dry air ahead of it to me...
https://i.ibb.co/wctQJpD/Dryair.jpg

True, but I don't think it is very wise to trust any storm that forms in the Gulf at the climatological peak of the season.

Oh, I don't trust it as far as I can email that picture. I'm just pointing out all of that dry air. It has to go someplace...

[Clearcloudz]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1436452922632585222

[tolakram]

If this stays offshore it could be a quick spin up. GFS says good vorticity in 48 hours.

[Clearcloudz]

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1436476601269686285

[tolakram]

Outlier? Here's the 12Z left biased Euro

[AlphaToOmega]

The northern part of a tropical wave is interacting with a surface
trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The merger of these
features is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea, Central America, the
Yucatan peninsula, and Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development over the weekend,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday
before the system moves near or onshore of the western Gulf of
Mexico coast. Regardless of development, this disturbance is
expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America
and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday which may lead to flash
flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely
reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas
and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant
rainfall amounts will be possible, resulting in limited flash and
urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[SoupBone]

The northern part of a tropical wave is interacting with a surface
trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The merger of these
features is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea, Central America, the
Yucatan peninsula, and Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development over the weekend,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday
before the system moves near or onshore of the western Gulf of
Mexico coast. Regardless of development, this disturbance is
expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America
and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday which may lead to flash
flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely
reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas
and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant
rainfall amounts will be possible, resulting in limited flash and
urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

So far the NHC isn't buying the hurricane setup. I bet in another run or two they will start mentioning it.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1436480677243863040

[IcyTundra]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1436478611050139665




Mark has a lot of experience with these type of things if he is concerned then it is really time to start paying attention.

[SoupBone]

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1436478611050139665

Mark has a lot of experience with these type of things if he is concerned then it is really time to start paying attention.

I like Mark, but uneasy feelings? C'mon man!

[AlphaToOmega]

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1436478611050139665

Mark has a lot of experience with these type of things if he is concerned then it is really time to start paying attention.

I like Mark, but uneasy feelings? C'mon man!

The model guidance is trending more eastward, which would give it more time over water.

[IcyTundra]

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1436478611050139665

Mark has a lot of experience with these type of things if he is concerned then it is really time to start paying attention.

I like Mark, but uneasy feelings? C'mon man!

I agree he is being a little over dramatic but I think the angle he is looking at this from is that this kind of flying under the radar and a lot of people could be caught off guard.

[Clearcloudz]

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1436478611050139665

Mark has a lot of experience with these type of things if he is concerned then it is really time to start paying attention.

I like Mark, but uneasy feelings? C'mon man!

I agree he is being a little over dramatic but I think the angle he is looking at this from is that this kind of flying under the radar and a lot of people could be caught off guard.

18Z GFS is possibly a outlier and may very well be gone in the next model run

[Clearcloudz]

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1436478971558957062

[IcyTundra]

I like Mark, but uneasy feelings? C'mon man!

I agree he is being a little over dramatic but I think the angle he is looking at this from is that this kind of flying under the radar and a lot of people could be caught off guard.

18Z GFS is possibly a outlier and may very well be gone in the next model run

That is what I am hoping for if we get to the 12Z runs tomorrow and the GFS is still showing a hurricane then we will need to take it much more seriously.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1436452922632585222




We have seen this movie before

[grapealcoholic]

Looked at IR tonight.. yep this one has me eye now. Spicy