Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan (Is Invest 94L)

[SoupBone]

With the upper ridge centered over southern Mexico, the disturbance would encounter increasing southwest to westerly wind shear as it nears Texas. That would not support the 18Z GFS solution. Still looks like rain for Texas being the main impact. To me, this means I'm working all weekend for will most likely be a weak, sheared TS impact. I have the center moving inland near the TX/MX border Monday then tracking slowly NE, bringing lots of rain to Texas.

Spread out or more localized impacts? We (Houston) can handle rain over time, it's been pretty dry lately, but not inches in a few hours as I'm sure you obviously know.

[NDG]

With the upper ridge centered over southern Mexico, the disturbance would encounter increasing southwest to westerly wind shear as it nears Texas. That would not support the 18Z GFS solution. Still looks like rain for Texas being the main impact. To me, this means I'm working all weekend for will most likely be a weak, sheared TS impact. I have the center moving inland near the TX/MX border Monday then tracking slowly NE, bringing lots of rain to Texas.

But the trend by the GFS is for the upper ridge to expand some northward. The Euro also shows the same.

[IcyTundra]

A Central Texas coast landfall is what I would bet on right now somewhere between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay.

[SoupBone]

With the upper ridge centered over southern Mexico, the disturbance would encounter increasing southwest to westerly wind shear as it nears Texas. That would not support the 18Z GFS solution. Still looks like rain for Texas being the main impact. To me, this means I'm working all weekend for will most likely be a weak, sheared TS impact. I have the center moving inland near the TX/MX border Monday then tracking slowly NE, bringing lots of rain to Texas.

But the trend by the GFS is for the upper ridge to expand some northward. The Euro also shows the same.

Where have you been man? You're usually a much more busy poster than you are this year. What are you thinking right now? Minimal Cat 1 into central Texas?

[IcyTundra]

00Z GFS is running lets see what it has to offer.

[NDG]

With the upper ridge centered over southern Mexico, the disturbance would encounter increasing southwest to westerly wind shear as it nears Texas. That would not support the 18Z GFS solution. Still looks like rain for Texas being the main impact. To me, this means I'm working all weekend for will most likely be a weak, sheared TS impact. I have the center moving inland near the TX/MX border Monday then tracking slowly NE, bringing lots of rain to Texas.

But the trend by the GFS is for the upper ridge to expand some northward. The Euro also shows the same.

Where have you been man? You're usually a much more busy poster than you are this year. What are you thinking right now? Minimal Cat 1 into central Texas?

Sorry, I was busy with my friends back in Nola during Ida. Since then I have been taking a break and catching up on a lot of work
If it stays offshore like some Euro ensembles show and the latest GFS show there is a good chance of at least a Cat 1. IMO.
I will continue watching the trends over the next 24 hrs, you know how this part of the GOM gives us surprises.

[IcyTundra]

00Z GFS is further east through 72 hours.

[grapealcoholic]

It's already got that look

Where?

Fair. Seeing deep pinks on IR this early always catches my eye

[SoupBone]

78 hours a huge jump east.

[NDG]

00Z GFS is further east through 72 hours.

But for some reason weaker than 18z run and fluctuating in strength the whole time.

[jaguars_22]

Looks like a storm tries to organize further north towards Houston before this storm gets going? Idk weird how me living in Victoria may be dry the entire week

[IcyTundra]

00Z GFS is further east through 72 hours.

But for some reason weaker than 18z run and fluctuating in strength the whole time.

Models always have a hard time with intensity very hard to predict how strong something will get several days in advance without a closed off low.

[SoupBone]

00Z GFS is further east through 72 hours.

But for some reason weaker than 18z run and fluctuating in strength the whole time.

I see 1010mb at 99 hours.

[grapealcoholic]

When these things pass the eye-test, they always come together quicker than models depict. Should have a depression within 24 hours

[IcyTundra]

Will be interesting to see what the GEFS has to say about this.

[grapealcoholic]

Will be interesting to see what the GEFS has to say about this.

Looks less aggressive but further south

[SoupBone]

Someone earlier showed a ton of dry air in its way deep into Texas and into the Gulf of Mexico. Is that what keeps it in check? Can anyone post that again?

[Craters]

Here it is, SoupBone --

[Steve]

Will be interesting to see what the GEFS has to say about this.

GFS is putting a foot of rain in Jefferson/Chambers CO’s TX. So Vidor, Beaumont, Port Arthur, Groves, Port Neches, Orange, Rose City and all those other towns near the TX/LA border. Not the most rain ever but everyone over that way knows the flooding dangers.

Only 102 hours so thru early Wednesday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 100&fh=102

[Cpv17]

The GEFS is quite a bit further west than the op.