How many ACE units will the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season get?

[Teban54]

I'm seeing some conversations in the indicators thread about seasonal ACE, so I figured it might be interesting to see everyone's opinions.

Options:
<100
100-126.1
126.1-140 (above average)
140-159.6
159.6-180 (hyperactive)
180-200
>200

The cutoffs are based on the 1951-2020 climo which is what the NOAA currently uses. As of September 9, we are at 74.4.

Note: This is likely not a great place to discuss whether ACE is a good indicator of seasonal activity, much less to have a debate on it. I hope everyone can limit the discussions to ACE as a metric only, though it's understandable if the thread ends up naturally deviating away from that.

Mods, can you make this a poll? Thanks.

[IcyTundra]

I will go with 140-159.6 ACE just short of a hyperactive season. I just don't think we are going to get enough long lived systems to get to a hyperactive season as I am expecting much of the remaining activity to come from homegrown systems in the Carribean or Gulf.

[Astromanía]

126.1-140

[Category5Kaiju]

165 is my one-shot guess. The Euro ensembles are pretty excited about a Georges-like westward tracking MDR system later this half, and while intensity and occurrence remain to be seen, if Larry served as any indication that long-lived and potent MDR hurricanes can occur this year, then I do not see why during the second half of September of all times this potential system would not occur. That alone could theoretically bring us up by 30-40 ACE (assuming it is strong), and the Atlantic ic near 75 ACE now, so unless we see a dead October and November, then I am thinking that while a 200 ACE season may not occur, an operationally hyperactive year with slightly more than 160 ACE could be in the cards.

[AlphaToOmega]

I think a hyperactive season is likely at this point. Unlike what some might say, hyperactive seasons are quite common, especially in active eras. From 1995 to 2020, there were 10 hyperactive seasons; 1/3 of the seasons in this active era were hyperactive. With how the season has performed so far, how it will likely perform in the near future, and how an impending La Nina could make this season backloaded once again, I could 160 ACE as a minimum. I would say 200 ACE is my maximum. I have to wait and see to make a judgement between 159.6-180 and 180-200.

[aspen]

120-150, similar to 2016/18/19. 2016 is also worth noting due to it having a rather lackluster middle of September, with peaks in activity in late August-early Sept and then in late Sept-mid Oct. 2021 could fit this pattern too.