Will we see a ≥140-kt system, and where would it form?

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AlphaToOmega
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Will we see a ≥140-kt system, and where would it form?

#1 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri Sep 10, 2021 5:35 am

As you all very well know, September is almost always the peak of hurricane season. With the peak of hurricane season, hurricanes are stronger. This raises two questions: will a ≥140-kt storm form, and where would it form?

None will form
Forms in the MDR
Forms in the subtropics
Forms in the Caribbean
Forms in the Gulf of Mexico
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Re: Will we see a ≥140-kt system, and where would it form?

#2 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Sep 10, 2021 5:53 am

I feel like the question should be worded not as “will” but as “could” given “will” sounds too definitive. We have seen active years such as 1995, 2010, and 2020 feature no Cat 5s despite them definitely having the potential to do so. However, with that aside, I’ll guess that the Caribbean is a good bet as it’s the highest UOHC part of the basin and is a climo favored region late season.
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Re: Will we see a ≥140-kt system, and where would it form?

#3 Postby zal0phus » Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:55 am

I feel like if we were to see such a storm it would be a mid-late October West Caribbean hurricane, probably curving north towards Mexico and then towards southwest Florida or Cuba. Essentially a track similar to Wilma's, but I can't imagine it would approach Wilma's strength.
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Re: Will we see a ≥140-kt system, and where would it form?

#4 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:57 am

I'm going to say no, but if a storm forms in the perfect spot at the right time in October, then maybe. But it's a solid no from me for now. I do think we might see another 130kt Cat 4 though
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Re: Will we see a ≥140-kt system, and where would it form?

#5 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Sep 10, 2021 8:12 am

Weather Dude wrote:I'm going to say no, but if a storm forms in the perfect spot at the right time in October, then maybe. But it's a solid no from me for now. I do think we might see another 130kt Cat 4 though


Eh, I personally would not count out the second half of September; as we saw with Maria, Lorenzo, Georges (to a degree given it was so close), Tampico, Yankee Clipper, Janet, Beulah, and Rita, Cat 5 hurricanes can easily form in the Atlantic during then.
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Re: Will we see a ≥140-kt system, and where would it form?

#6 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Sep 10, 2021 12:30 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:I'm going to say no, but if a storm forms in the perfect spot at the right time in October, then maybe. But it's a solid no from me for now. I do think we might see another 130kt Cat 4 though


Eh, I personally would not count out the second half of September; as we saw with Maria, Lorenzo, Georges (to a degree given it was so close), Tampico, Yankee Clipper, Janet, Beulah, and Rita, Cat 5 hurricanes can easily form in the Atlantic during then.

I think we'll have at least 1 storm from here on out get close to Cat 5, but I think it will fall just short.
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