Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today (Is Invest 95L)

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caneseddy
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa on Monday

#221 Postby caneseddy » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:42 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Looks like the streamer kills it but man that is a nasty steering pattern. This is gonna be one we will be watching for awhile...


Looking at that pattern, if it goes north of the islands and no streamer is there (GFS is the only one who shows the streamer) that pattern screams SE US
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa on Monday

#222 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:56 pm

The possibilities for this system with the trough ridge setup of the GFS are anything from a track like Larry to a track like Hugo or Isabel to a possible Frances or Andrew like track or even David so this is a potential threat if the PVS isn’t there and the ridge builds back in like the GFS
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa on Monday

#223 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:23 am

0Z UKMET: it forms, stays weak, and dissipates:



NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.7N 21.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2021 48 11.7N 21.9W 1011 29
1200UTC 15.09.2021 60 12.3N 25.6W 1011 28
0000UTC 16.09.2021 72 13.1N 29.3W 1013 28
1200UTC 16.09.2021 84 13.9N 33.7W 1014 27
0000UTC 17.09.2021 96 CEASED TRACKING
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa on Monday

#224 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:42 am

The 0Z GEFS mean is to the NE of that of the 18Z so far. So, da bears pick up some points so far in the run.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa on Monday

#225 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:56 am

1. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa
later today. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by late this week while it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa on Monday

#226 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:43 am

Seems like the Euro shows the PVS, seeing how it kills future Odette in about the same area that the GFS does. This is at least 5-8 days out so it’s possible the PVS either isn’t a factor, or is even stronger than currently modeled.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today

#227 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:20 am

06z GFS develops this, brings it to a Cat 1/2 hurricane in the western MDR, rips it to shreds, and reforms it just west of Bermuda. The trend of the last few model runs is that future Odette could be anything from perfectly safe to incredibly dangerous depending on whether that PVS does indeed verify at 6-7 days out. However, if the PVS is there but Odette is stronger on approach (maybe a major), then it would probably weaken down to a TS but not dissipate entirely. Think a southern version of Florence.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today

#228 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:26 am

Image
Our TW finally splashing into the Atlantic...
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today

#229 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:30 am

Image
00z Euro ensembles...
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today

#230 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:30 am

Just checked the most recent ECMWF tracks, and there are quite a few long-tracked members that show a left hook east of the Bahamas and LA, and more interestingly, I think this is the first time this season in which there were actually members that showed a Category 5 hurricane in either the EPAC or the Atlantic (though the ensemble(s) that showed this took it on a track like Irma's). I cannot recall Ida, Felicia, Linda, or Larry having any members at any point show a Cat 5.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/724-w-263-n/2021091300-240.html
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today

#231 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:36 am

8 AM TWO:
A tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa near
the coasts of Guinea and Sierra Leone. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this
disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
this week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today

#232 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:38 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Just checked the most recent ECMWF tracks, and there are quite a few long-tracked members that show a left hook east of the Bahamas and LA, and more interestingly, I think this is the first time this season in which there were actually members that showed a Category 5 hurricane in either the EPAC or the Atlantic (though the ensemble(s) that showed this took it on a track like Irma's). I cannot recall Ida, Felicia, Linda, or Larry having any members at any point show a Cat 5.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/724-w-263-n/2021091300-240.html


Wow, since it's only 1 member in 1 run and quite far out it isn't that significant in terms of intensity guidance right now, but still pretty crazy to see a cat 5 on the Euro. Even Euro's 930 mbar runs of Larry didn't show cat 5 winds if I recall correctly. At the very least it shows the potential this wave has, even though of course there are also still runs that only keep this a TS so nothing's certain yet.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today

#233 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:41 am

06z GFS gets this down to 976 mbar before being destroyed by (I think) extreme wind shear (50+ kts).

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today

#234 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:43 am

It’s now Invest 95L.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today

#235 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:43 am

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