Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today (Is Invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of
Africa early next week. Some development of this system will be
possible through the middle of next week while it moves westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

GFS wakes up and now develops.

[kevin]

I think this is the one that the Euro is so bullish on right?

[Stormybajan]

I think this is the one that the Euro is so bullish on right?

Yep... also the cmc. Looks like gfs has jumped onto the development train for this wave

[aspen]

Oh boy, every model is on board now and agrees on a very low-latitude MDR long-tracker. This could be a very long pre-invest thread.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1436645160453087236

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of
Africa in a few days. Some development of this system will be
possible through the middle of next week while it moves westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[kevin]

06z GFS forms this into a TC at +144 and eventually recurves it, but it does seem like the strongest GFS run for this disturbance so far, down to 969 mbar.

[toad strangler]

That's a ton of strong members way out in the middle of the Atlantic. It would definitely take anomalously strong and unbroken ridging to get this farther to the W than what is depicted here. Regardless, will be the main show soon.

[Category5Kaiju]

06z GFS forms this into a TC at +144 and eventually recurves it, but it does seem like the strongest GFS run for this disturbance so far, down to 969 mbar.

https://imgur.com/2AZzRww

Hmm, well one thing I do know is that the GFS has a tendency to underestimate ridge strengths, and a low rider from that low of a latitude I would think would have a less chance of recurving that sharply as opposed to a system more to the north.

[aspen]

06z GFS forms this into a TC at +144 and eventually recurves it, but it does seem like the strongest GFS run for this disturbance so far, down to 969 mbar.

https://imgur.com/2AZzRww

Hmm, well one thing I do know is that the GFS has a tendency to underestimate ridge strengths, and a low rider from that low of a latitude I would think would have a less chance of recurving that sharply as opposed to a system more to the north.

GFS underestimates ridges, Euro over-estimates. A blend of their tracks is similar to Larry’s but further SW, which seems like a good guess based on how this wave is coming off even further south than Larry was. However, it’s possible the Euro could be closer to reality because of Typhoon Chthulu pumping the ridge.

[toad strangler]

LOL ..... yep, main show soon.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1436676650842918918

[Spacecoast]

06z GEFS.... Many members emerge below 10N.

[SFLcane]

That’s as good as agreement as you will ever see for a wave still over Africa.

[LarryWx]

The CV storms on record that I’ve found that hit the CONUS 9/20+ are at least these 8:

Lili 2002
Georges 1998
Hugo 1989
Gloria 1985
Inez 1966
1938
1926
1893

The last few EPS runs are saying to not bet anywhere near the farm that 2021 will not produce the 9th and the 1st in 19 years, especially with La Niña. If they have the right idea, late month trouble COULD very well occur.
This is as strong support for anything this far out that I can recall ever seeing. Could the Euro suites be in la la land? They could. Look at how bad so many runs just did with 93L, which they had develop rapidly and recurve just offshore Africa.

[SFLcane]

The CV storms on record that I’ve found that hit the CONUS 9/20+ are at least these 8:

Lili 2002
Georges 1998
Hugo 1989
Gloria 1985
Inez 1966
1938
1926
1893

The last few EPS runs are saying to not bet anywhere near the farm that 2021 will not produce the 9th and the 1st in 19 years, especially with La Niña. If they have the right idea, late month trouble COULD very well occur.
This is as strong support for anything this far out that I can recall ever seeing. Could the Euro suites be in la la land? They could. Look at how bad so many runs just did with 93L, which they had develop rapidly and recurve just offshore Africa.

I think eps is all but locked into this wave in terms of development.

[Teban54]

The CV storms on record that I’ve found that hit the CONUS 9/20+ are at least these 8:

Lili 2002
Georges 1998
Hugo 1989
Gloria 1985
Inez 1966
1938
1926
1893

The last few EPS runs are saying to not bet anywhere near the farm that 2021 will not produce the 9th and the 1st in 19 years, especially with La Niña. If they have the right idea, late month trouble COULD very well occur.
This is as strong support for anything this far out that I can recall ever seeing. Could the Euro suites be in la la land? They could. Look at how bad so many runs just did with 93L, which they had develop rapidly and recurve just offshore Africa.

I think eps is all but locked into this wave in terms of development.

Considering how well Euro and its ensembles it did on Larry (and how poorly other models did, especially GFS), this could be concerning.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z ICON has this as a H in a week moving WNW in the MDR. By far, that is the strongest ICON yet.

[Hurricaneman]

GFS back to almost nothing this run, it’s so inconsistent while the Euro has been highly consistent so my money is with the Euro

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS back to almost nothing this run, it’s so inconsistent while the Euro has been highly consistent so my money is with the Euro

At this point I’ve basically ignored the GFS solo runs and only looked at the ensembles (like the EPS and GEPS). Clearly the operational GFS is extremely unreliable.