Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today (Is Invest 95L)

[aspen]

Happy Hour GFS doing Happy Hour things??

https://i.imgur.com/FVBiQR4.png

Oh NOW the GFS develops this, after a bunch of models trended weaker and it hasn’t shown anything in days lmao I’m done

[Landy]

Happy Hour GFS doing Happy Hour things??

https://i.imgur.com/FVBiQR4.png

Oh NOW the GFS develops this, after a bunch of models trended weaker and it hasn’t shown anything in days lmao I’m done

Model watching has been a trip this season at this point I just look at them for fun... I'm expecting more changes over the next few runs as the wave approaches the ocean.

[SFLcane]

Gfs wakes up lol…

Icon dips sw at the end of its run.

[Blown Away]

Gfs wakes up lol…

Icon dips sw at the end of its run.

Nicholas not enhancing Bahama low as much and ridging is building back in stronger than previous runs.

[Category5Kaiju]

Happy Hour GFS doing Happy Hour things??

https://i.imgur.com/FVBiQR4.png

Oh NOW the GFS develops this, after a bunch of models trended weaker and it hasn’t shown anything in days lmao I’m done

GFS after many runs of showing jack squat: “Ok, ok, I get it I get it! Fine, I show a TC now “

[LarryWx]

Happy Hour GEFS says the Happy Hour GFS is a western outlier.

[gatorcane]

Saved 18Z GFS from 120 hour animation, recurve well east of the Lesser Antilles. Notable the model now picks up on genesis as some have mentioned.

[SFLcane]

Webb’s tweet…

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1437183096911130625

[kevin]

Happy Hour GFS doing Happy Hour things??

https://i.imgur.com/FVBiQR4.png

Oh NOW the GFS develops this, after a bunch of models trended weaker and it hasn’t shown anything in days lmao I’m done

GFS when other models are trending weaker:

[aspen]

The GFS’ track would make future Odette one hell of an ACE maker: several days over the southern MDR, a brief weakening phase due to a PVS (although this would have less of an impact of Odette is stronger than the GFS shows when at 55W), and several more days within the extremely high SSTs of the region west of 60W and south of 30N. This track also just barely misses the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada — a potentially very strong but mercifully OTS long-tracker. I could easily see it becoming a Cat 4 at some point and being another 30-40 ACE storm.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Monday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for some gradual development of this system thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form later this week while it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[SFLcane]

The GFS’ track would make future Odette one hell of an ACE maker: several days over the southern MDR, a brief weakening phase due to a PVS (although this would have less of an impact of Odette is stronger than the GFS shows when at 55W), and several more days within the extremely high SSTs of the region west of 60W and south of 30N. This track also just barely misses the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada — a potentially very strong but mercifully OTS long-tracker. I could easily see it becoming a Cat 4 at some point and being another 30-40 ACE storm.

this can easily make it to the islands and potentially further westward. Lots of moving parts.

[Hurricaneman]

A PVS is forecasted near the islands on the GFS that would weaken this around there but there’s no guarantee that this will recurve due to a weaker system just look at a certain storm in 1992 that went through a PVS, weakened significantly and came out the other end and rapidly deepened and got under the ridge which it would have gone out to sea if it didn’t have the PVS shear, not expecting this anywhere near south Florida like that one but this could put a scare on the east coast of the ridge is any stronger

[SFLcane]

[Hurricaneman]

https://i.postimg.cc/L5YqwnrM/C49-EF15-C-9-DD1-4901-8786-CA28-CE3-B7-FF7.gif

Looks like a Floyd type setup, we’ll see as it could be anything from no development to major hurricane within shouting distance of the east coast

[Teban54]

Now I just want the wave to dissipate immediately, so that I don't have to stretch my head while reading the debates on whether it will form in the first place, not to mention where it will go.

As if trying to find Nicholas' LLC wasn't frustrating enough.

[gatorcane]

Saved loop, definitely some noticeable spin and it is still over land. I can see why models have liked development in at least some of the recent runs:

[Spacecoast]

Ok, now comparing the last two GEFS runs:
Taken as a group, perhaps a little stronger, less spread, and slightly???? further westward?
noticeable left turn in last part of 18z run
IDK, judge for yourselves...




I wish they would show AEMN

[LarryWx]

Of 31 members of the 18Z GEFS, 4 hit the SE US 9/25-8 (2 FL and 2 NC) and one of the 2 NC hits (a skirter) then goes up the coast.

[toad strangler]

Saved 18Z GFS from 120 hour animation, recurve well east of the Lesser Antilles. Notable the model now picks up on genesis as some have mentioned.

https://i.postimg.cc/ryKJzQpb/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh120-240.gif

At the 200 hourISH time frame that is NOT WELL EAST of the LA