Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today (Is Invest 95L)

[WiscoWx02]

Just thinking out loud here, but I noticed that the area of thunderstorms behind the area the NHC has been focusing on seems far more robust than the one in front of it. Perhaps this is why the models just suddenly went slack on it, because they are readjusting to the idea of the other wave being more dominant? It looks pretty darn good to me and definitely has rotation.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS 240: much less active than prior runs leading to a good bit further west mean though most of these should still recurve well OTS from the CONUS. Let's see what the later maps of this run show:

240:

[Spacecoast]

12Z EPS 240: much less active than prior runs leading to a good bit further west mean though most of these should still recurve well OTS from the CONUS. Let's see what the later maps of this run show:

240:
https://i.imgur.com/60FnEfh.png

How much of that further west is due to quicker movement? idk
The ensemble mean still passes east of 25N, 65W, and has been that way for quite a while, right?

[AutoPenalti]

12z Euro doesn’t surprise me considering this is still inland.

[MetroMike]

It's not just the EURO that poofs it either. HWRF run totally dropped it too. Will be interesting to see the next set of runs but doubt they will show anything either if past experience means anything. Wonder why all the models just decided to jump off the cliff on this one.....

Operational runs that is. EPS/GFS ensemble will be the real indicator if we have been chasing a ghost this whole time or not.

Many GEPS and GEFS members still show this system.

That may change also. Wave and model watching this season has been downright maddening.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS 240: much less active than prior runs leading to a good bit further west mean though most of these should still recurve well OTS from the CONUS. Let's see what the later maps of this run show:

240:
https://i.imgur.com/60FnEfh.png

Followup: ~10% of the members end up a CONUS threat or a close miss. Here's the end of the run:

[otowntiger]

Weak on the 12Z Euro may = much more west.

https://i.postimg.cc/8zts8jcM/ecmwf-uv850-vort-eatl-fh0-120.gif

yep- it does take it much further west, but practically dissipates it as it depicts it steadily weakening the further west it gets. Models currently not too enthused about anything over the next couple weeks it looks like. Seems kinda weird for this time of year.

[Category5Kaiju]

Weak on the 12Z Euro may = much more west.

https://i.postimg.cc/8zts8jcM/ecmwf-uv850-vort-eatl-fh0-120.gif

yep- it does take it much further west, but practically dissipates it as it depicts it steadily weakening the further west it gets. Models currently not too enthused about anything over the next couple weeks it looks like. Seems kinda weird for this time of year.

The models are not enthused about anything in the EPAC either, and when have the models been very and consistently enthused about Atlantic development this season honestly? Especially earlier in the season with all of that EPAC ghost storms and Atlantic nothingness…either way, my point is I am honestly not shocked that the models are not enthused about peak Atlantic season development. Obviously I find it very unlikely that the Atlantic and the EPAC for what it’s worth will be as quiet as the models think this month.

[LarryWx]

Weak on the 12Z Euro may = much more west.

https://i.postimg.cc/8zts8jcM/ecmwf-uv850-vort-eatl-fh0-120.gif

yep- it does take it much further west, but practically dissipates it as it depicts it steadily weakening the further west it gets. Models currently not too enthused about anything over the next couple weeks it looks like. Seems kinda weird for this time of year.

The models are not enthused about anything in the EPAC either, and when have the models been very and consistently enthused about Atlantic development this season honestly? Especially earlier in the season with all of that EPAC ghost storms and Atlantic nothingness…either way, my point is I am honestly not shocked that the models are not enthused about peak Atlantic season development. Obviously I find it very unlikely that the Atlantic and the EPAC for what it’s worth will be as quiet as the models think this month.

No matter what, September will not end up quiet as it has already had Larry, Mindy and Nicholas and it is only Sept 12 with 2 additional pretty strong candidates for genesis!

[aspen]

12Z EPS 240: much less active than prior runs leading to a good bit further west mean though most of these should still recurve well OTS from the CONUS. Let's see what the later maps of this run show:

240:
https://i.imgur.com/60FnEfh.png

Followup: ~10% of the members end up a CONUS threat or a close miss. Here's the end of the run:
https://i.imgur.com/yCSqwhE.png

A good amount of those members get into the large swath of high OHC and 29.5-30C SSTs north of the Greater Antilles. Even if this system remains weak for the entirety of its trek in the MDR, I am very concerned about the possibility of RI into a powerful major once it gets into that region.

[toad strangler]

Weak on the 12Z Euro may = much more west.

https://i.postimg.cc/8zts8jcM/ecmwf-uv850-vort-eatl-fh0-120.gif

yep- it does take it much further west, but practically dissipates it as it depicts it steadily weakening the further west it gets. Models currently not too enthused about anything over the next couple weeks it looks like. Seems kinda weird for this time of year.

Models will be inaccurate in this regards

[ElectricStorm]

Models are generally bad when it comes to waves still over Africa, however if the Euro does end up verifying and it stays weaker, it will likely be more if a concern further west down the road. It would be better if this gets going earlier so it goes further north

[SFLcane]

Noticed some of these Eps members hooking west and some even wsw. Quite the spread

[Category5Kaiju]

Noticed some of these Eps members hooking west and some even wsw. Quite the spread

https://i.postimg.cc/bvzmhT69/320977-DC-7-FB1-463-E-96-DF-258-AED116785.png

So at this point in time we know two definitive things:

1. Contrary to the GFS and Euro operational runs, the ensembles are still keen on this AOI becoming a named storm.
2. Unlike Larry, there is a chance that this treks more westward, so it at this point in time is not a slam dunk OTS fish storm (as there are also a myriad of volatile factors that could come into play and influence troughing and ridging).

[LarryWx]

Noticed some of these Eps members hooking west and some even wsw. Quite the spread

https://i.postimg.cc/bvzmhT69/320977-DC-7-FB1-463-E-96-DF-258-AED116785.png

So at this point in time we know two definitive things:

1. Contrary to the GFS and Euro operational runs, the ensembles are still keen on this AOI becoming a named storm.
2. Unlike Larry, there is a chance that this treks more westward, so it at this point in time is not a slam dunk OTS fish storm (as there are also a myriad of volatile factors that could come into play and influence troughing and ridging).

Anyone saying "Slam dunk OTS fish storm" now with regard to this AEW isn't knowlegable about the tropics and its climo.

[Category5Kaiju]

Noticed some of these Eps members hooking west and some even wsw. Quite the spread

https://i.postimg.cc/bvzmhT69/320977-DC-7-FB1-463-E-96-DF-258-AED116785.png

So at this point in time we know two definitive things:

1. Contrary to the GFS and Euro operational runs, the ensembles are still keen on this AOI becoming a named storm.
2. Unlike Larry, there is a chance that this treks more westward, so it at this point in time is not a slam dunk OTS fish storm (as there are also a myriad of volatile factors that could come into play and influence troughing and ridging).

Anyone saying "Slam dunk OTS fish storm" now with regard to this AEW isn't knowlegable about the tropics and its climo.

I know; but it seems as if especially with these kinds of storms that have not even left Africa yet but have models that take them close to land only to recurve, many individuals seem to be tempted to jump to conclusions and say "FISH" when in reality there are a lot more nuances that dictate exact path going forward.

[Spacecoast]

Comparing the last two Euro Ens runs...
Definitely weaker, more of a spread, but (IMHO) only moderately more westward. (I focus in on the 20N,60W coordinate as a bifurcation point).

[Blown Away]

Euro seems to show a slightly farther W Nicholas dissipating over TX/LA and doesn't enhance the low over Bahamas as much which may be allowing the ridging over Atlantic to build in stronger. Reasonable solution to me.

[aspen]

18z ICON is still a fan, and has a moderate TS going due W by 120hr.

[LarryWx]

Happy Hour GFS doing Happy Hour things??