Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today (Is Invest 95L)

[Teban54]

Windshield wiper in full effect, both for the models and for the users.

[Category5Kaiju]

At this point I'm just going to look at the ensembles. I mean, one operational run after another and it's a totally different story. Drives me nuts to be fair

[Blown Away]

And we’re is the tc on the 12z euro? Totally different upper air pattern also

Faster and weaker, ensembles on GFS/EPS that impacted Caribbean and near SE Bahamas were faster and weak until @55W before strengthening.

[gatorcane]

Weak on the 12Z Euro may = much more west.

[Deshaunrob17]

Another wave where the Euro is probably too bullish... Yesterday, I was going to post about how how I Dont trust the euro... Weaker could.mean more west- we shall see

[Category5Kaiju]

If anything, weaker may actually not be good since it could get further west?

[aspen]

The GEFS ensembles are really spread out, showing everything from a Korean model Irma-like track to an ICON early recurve track.

[AutoPenalti]

Well actually that may not be a good thing...

[tolakram]

Reminders of some seasons past where CV development looked like a lock and then, poof.

[Stormybajan]

Even though its much weaker through 168 hours, the system still misses the islands by quite a distance

[Shell Mound]

Even though its much weaker through 168 hours, the system still misses the islands by quite a distance

Models have trended toward a weaker system, yet still show a solidly OTS path, given that a nearby TUTT serves to weaken low-level trades.

[aspen]

Okay guys, pack it up. Another weak OTS Euro bust from this. /s

[tolakram]

Even though its much weaker through 168 hours, the system still misses the islands by quite a distance

Models have trended toward a weaker system, yet still show a solidly OTS path, given that a nearby TUTT serves to weaken low-level trades.

Can you show what you are referring too? Weaker storm further west with mostly low level flow influencing it, which is unrelated to upper level flow.

[SFLcane]

Eps will be interesting. Andrew like setup

[WiscoWx02]

It's not just the EURO that poofs it either. HWRF run totally dropped it too. Will be interesting to see the next set of runs but doubt they will show anything either if past experience means anything. Wonder why all the models just decided to jump off the cliff on this one.....

Operational runs that is. EPS/GFS ensemble will be the real indicator if we have been chasing a ghost this whole time or not.

[tolakram]

Euro poofed everything.

Vorticity is split and one ends up near Florida. I do not know what to think of this run.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1437117983940284418




 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1437121585077538818

[aspen]

Seeing how the 12z Euro has gone bonkers with Nicholas’ rainfall totals and rips future Odette to shreds after many runs showing a major, I’m guessing this is just a bad run. We’ll have to see if the 00z run continues with a Harvey 2.0 and a non-existent MDR system.

[LarryWx]

1. 12z Euro's far weaker solution is actually technically much more threatening to the CONUS since the prior run was way OTS and this is much further west and quicker, too.
2. Is the 12Z Euro suggesting that it has been doing a 93L again with a fake far E Atlantic strong TC run on several runs prior to this? Is the GFS going to be closer to the truth again with the lack of a strong E Atlantic TC from this? We'll see.

Aside: The 12Z JMA like yesterday has nothing more than very weak.

[Category5Kaiju]

It's not just the EURO that poofs it either. HWRF run totally dropped it too. Will be interesting to see the next set of runs but doubt they will show anything either if past experience means anything. Wonder why all the models just decided to jump off the cliff on this one.....

Operational runs that is. EPS/GFS ensemble will be the real indicator if we have been chasing a ghost this whole time or not.

Many GEPS and GEFS members still show this system.