Low pressure to form near the SE Bahamas (Is Invest 96L)

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form near the southeastern
Bahamas in a few days. Gradual development of this system is
possible thereafter as it moves northwestward across the western
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS from 48 hours loop:

[aspen]

While the increased support for development and the untapped SSTs/OHC are all concerning, there is one major issue this system will have to overcome: the UL flow helping ventilate 94L will be producing strong UL shear over the Bahamas according to the GFS. If that materializes, this disturbance will be significantly limited, but nobody should let their guard down with a storm forming close to land over 30C SSTs.

[wxman57]

NHC is missing the wave about 320 miles east of Barbados that is the source for this development. The low just won't develop out of nothing. Follow the wave near 14.5N/54.5W.

[aspen]

18z GFS sends this into NYC/SW Connecticut/northern NJ.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form near the southeastern
Bahamas in a few days resulting from moisture by a tropical wave
interacting with an upper-level trough. Gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter as it moves northwestward across the
western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Woofde]

18z GFS sends this into NYC/SW Connecticut/northern NJ.

It does, and then it decides to Fujiwhara another cyclone into the same area. Pretty comedic and very unlikely.

[toad strangler]

I imagine whatever comes of this will be subtropical in nature.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I imagine whatever comes of this will be subtropical in nature.

Over 30C waters? I imagine that would be fully tropical regardless of the ULL interaction.

[Teban54]

Upt to 0/40, this kind of popped out of nowhere. Reminds me a bit of Ophelia 2005, though probably weaker.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the
southeastern or central Bahamas in a few days resulting from a
tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form later this week several hundred miles southeast of the
Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Category5Kaiju]

I imagine whatever comes of this will be subtropical in nature.

Perhaps, though I cannot see why it wouldn't transition into a fully TC afterwards.

[emeraldislenc]

What is your reasoning in a sub tropical storm?

[underthwx]

Is the motion of this system expected to continue to the NW?

[Steve H.]

I’m wondering why they have it continuing to the nw. The trough is exiting and ridging would have it move westward IMO.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the
southeastern or central Bahamas in a few days resulting from a
tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form later this week several hundred miles southeast of the
Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[emeraldislenc]

What are some thoughts about the possible strength when it gets closer to NC?

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a couple of
hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a
tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough. Some gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form later this week while the system moves
north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Hurricaneman]

What are some thoughts about the possible strength when it gets closer to NC?

I’m thinking 50mph but could be anywhere from no development to a minimal hurricane

[emeraldislenc]

Thanks for your thoughts. Any other thoughts will be appreciated. This weekend we have a fishing tournament on Saturday. Just curious how the weather might be.