Tropical wave southeast of Cabo Verde (Is Invest 97L)

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zzh
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Tropical wave southeast of Cabo Verde (Is Invest 97L)

#1 Postby zzh » Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:41 pm

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast of
Africa toward the end of the week. Environment conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, while it moves
generally west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Last edited by zzh on Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:45 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Tropical wave to emerge from West Africa this weekend

#2 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:17 am

The HWRF-P develops a second TS behind 95L from this 0/20 AOI over the weekend, but unlike every other model, it forms at ~10N and stays at ~10N. They’re close enough for their moisture fields to interact with each other.
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Re: Tropical wave to emerge from West Africa this weekend

#3 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:13 am

aspen wrote:The HWRF-P develops a second TS behind 95L from this 0/20 AOI over the weekend, but unlike every other model, it forms at ~10N and stays at ~10N. They’re close enough for their moisture fields to interact with each other.

While it doesn't keep the wave that far south, CMC has also been consistent on a westward track unlike ECMWF. The 0z CMC for example finishes with the system at 15N 38W, and looks like it would continue moving west as a ridge starts building to its north.
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Re: Tropical wave to emerge from West Africa this weekend

#4 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:59 pm

aspen wrote:The HWRF-P develops a second TS behind 95L from this 0/20 AOI over the weekend, but unlike every other model, it forms at ~10N and stays at ~10N. They’re close enough for their moisture fields to interact with each other.



Why do they have it pointing northwest?
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Re: Tropical wave to emerge from West Africa this weekend

#5 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:08 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
aspen wrote:The HWRF-P develops a second TS behind 95L from this 0/20 AOI over the weekend, but unlike every other model, it forms at ~10N and stays at ~10N. They’re close enough for their moisture fields to interact with each other.



Why do they have it pointing northwest?

Every other model that develops this sends it NW. I’m not sure why the Euro, CMC, and ICON have it recurve so early; I don’t see signs of any significant weakness to bring it north.
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Re: Tropical wave to emerge from West Africa this weekend

#6 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:14 pm

aspen wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:
aspen wrote:The HWRF-P develops a second TS behind 95L from this 0/20 AOI over the weekend, but unlike every other model, it forms at ~10N and stays at ~10N. They’re close enough for their moisture fields to interact with each other.



Why do they have it pointing northwest?

Every other model that develops this sends it NW. I’m not sure why the Euro, CMC, and ICON have it recurve so early; I don’t see signs of any significant weakness to bring it north.

The Euro failed massively with 93L by developing it too quickly and sending it NW immediately, when in reality it dipped WSW and died. Not convinced it will suddenly do well with presumably-future-97L by showing the exact same thing.
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Re: Tropical wave southeast of Cabo Verde

#7 Postby zzh » Fri Sep 17, 2021 7:19 pm

Image
Wow, it has a closed circulation and almost a TD. The NHC should at least label this as 97L :double:
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Re: Tropical wave southeast of Cabo Verde (Is Invest 97L)

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 18, 2021 7:36 am

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