Tropical Wave off African Coast (Is Invest 98L)

[AlphaToOmega]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
later today or tonight. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development thereafter as the system moves generally
westward at about 10 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[aspen]

There is a surprisingly good model consensus showing this developing into Sam. Hopefully it’ll do better then Peter and Rose.

[AlphaToOmega]

A tropical wave located along the west coast of Africa is forecast
to emerge offshore this evening. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and a
tropical depression could form late this week as it moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Ubuntwo]

12z euro makes this a hurricane. Has not been doing so hot lately, but with a less suppressive period coming up, we'll see.

[SconnieCane]

Does this keep rolling west or follow Rose north? Orientation of orange shading suggests the former, kind of surprising given the relatively close proximity in space and time (vs. say Peter and Odette).

[aspen]

Does this keep rolling west or follow Rose north? Orientation of orange shading suggests the former, kind of surprising given the relatively close proximity in space and time (vs. say Peter and Odette).

All the models keep this as a very low latitude, and it doesn’t start getting pulled north until 45-50W.

[zzh]

An area of disorganized cloudiness and a few thunderstorms located
over the eastern tropical Atlantic is associated with a tropical
wave that is moving off the west coast of Africa. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next
several days, and a tropical depression could form later this week
as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Ubuntwo]

Major hurricane on the GFS. Really far out, but it goes well OTS.

[aspen]

I hope the models are right this time about an OTS hurricane or major. We need a nice, harmless, long-tracking ACE maker after Odette and Peter (Rose still had a chance to be substantial).

[abajan]

Major hurricane on the GFS. Really far out, but it goes well OTS.

https://i.imgur.com/qBZNevv.png

Not well OTS in the context of Bermuda, though.

[Ubuntwo]

Major hurricane on the GFS. Really far out, but it goes well OTS.

https://i.imgur.com/qBZNevv.png

Not well OTS in the context of Bermuda, though.

True. Models bring it right in that direction, I believe they get the eyewall that run. The lessers should also be on watch. Slower development = greater threat to the islands.

[cycloneye]

An area of disorganized cloudiness and a few thunderstorms located
over the eastern tropical Atlantic is associated with a tropical
wave that is moving off the west coast of Africa. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next
several days, and a tropical depression could form later this week
as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Teban54]

Pretty much all operational models show development by 40W. Not sure how much I trust them after the massive bust with Peter, though.

[AlphaToOmega]

Pretty much all operational models show development by 40W. Not sure how much I trust them after the massive bust with Peter, though.

They are probably more trustworthy because the wave has actually come off Africa.

[WiscoWx02]

Pretty much all operational models show development by 40W. Not sure how much I trust them after the massive bust with Peter, though.

Yeah, doubt we see much with this either to be honest.

[Blown Away]

Persistent low pressures off the E coast CONUS will help move any thing that develops away from the CONUS just like Larry/Peter... Maybe NE Caribbean or Bermuda...

[Teban54]

I know it's the ICON so don't put too much stock into it, but it literally has Odette, Peter, Rose and future Sam form a kite

Ends this run with a 985 mb Sam that's probably on a recurve path.

0z GFS has this wave forming at ~35W. Briefly goes down to 989 mb and then weaken to 1002 mb. Intensifies again to the NE of the islands past 20N, peaks at 956 while moving north. Overall intensity almost the same as 18z run and track is further east; very similar to Ophelia 2011 in timing, track and intensity.

[IcyTundra]

00Z GFS sure would be nice if it actually happens. A powerful fish storm that would be fun to track.

[supercane4867]

00z euro is very bullish. It has an eventual recurve but brings it fairly close to the islands as a major hurricane

[cycloneye]

Invest 98L is up