Tropical Wave emerging from the African Coast (Is Invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday. Upper-level winds are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to
form in a few days while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Teban54]

Models generally agree on this wave recurving in the open Atlantic even earlier than Larry. Strength wise, they are all not enthusiastic while it's in the MDR. GFS, which was showing 982 mb a day ago, is now weaker and sometimes doesn't get it down to 990s.

GFS is still the only model that has it redeveloping or reintensifying in the subtropics. On some runs it moves west while strengthening similar to Lee and Epsilon, on other runs it recurves quickly (possibly as a subtropical or extratropical system). The subtropics has generally underperformed this year though, so I doubt that would happen even though it would be nice.

Update: 0z GFS drops development in the subtropics, but 0z CMC now shows it.

[Hurricaneman]

Models generally agree on this wave recurving in the open Atlantic even earlier than Larry. Strength wise, they are all not enthusiastic while it's in the MDR. GFS, which was showing 982 mb a day ago, is now weaker and sometimes doesn't get it down to 990s.

GFS is still the only model that has it redeveloping or reintensifying in the subtropics. On some runs it moves west while strengthening similar to Lee and Epsilon, on other runs it recurves quickly (possibly as a subtropical or extratropical system). The subtropics has generally underperformed this year though, so I doubt that would happen even though it would be nice.

That’s something completely different, this system is the one that forms in the NW Caribbean in the 0z run so while this wave may not do much over the MDR it may be something that needs to be watched further west

[Teban54]

Models generally agree on this wave recurving in the open Atlantic even earlier than Larry. Strength wise, they are all not enthusiastic while it's in the MDR. GFS, which was showing 982 mb a day ago, is now weaker and sometimes doesn't get it down to 990s.

GFS is still the only model that has it redeveloping or reintensifying in the subtropics. On some runs it moves west while strengthening similar to Lee and Epsilon, on other runs it recurves quickly (possibly as a subtropical or extratropical system). The subtropics has generally underperformed this year though, so I doubt that would happen even though it would be nice.

That’s something completely different, this system is the one that forms in the NW Caribbean in the 0z run so while this wave may not do much over the MDR it may be something that needs to be watched further west

Isn't that the western disturbance (Disturbance 3 in the 8pm EDT TWO) that is already at 30W? If you trace the vorticity on 0z GFS, you can see that system - discussed in the other thread - consolidating at 37W by hour 72; while the wave in this thread emerges from Africa by hour 12, and consolidates at 23W by hour 78.



Edit: NHC flipped the order in the 2am EDT TWO, so "Disturbance 2" in the images above is now Disturbance 3 in the TWO, and vice versa.

[USTropics]

Models generally agree on this wave recurving in the open Atlantic even earlier than Larry. Strength wise, they are all not enthusiastic while it's in the MDR. GFS, which was showing 982 mb a day ago, is now weaker and sometimes doesn't get it down to 990s.

GFS is still the only model that has it redeveloping or reintensifying in the subtropics. On some runs it moves west while strengthening similar to Lee and Epsilon, on other runs it recurves quickly (possibly as a subtropical or extratropical system). The subtropics has generally underperformed this year though, so I doubt that would happen even though it would be nice.

That’s something completely different, this system is the one that forms in the NW Caribbean in the 0z run so while this wave may not do much over the MDR it may be something that needs to be watched further west

Isn't that the western disturbance (Disturbance 3 in the 8pm EDT TWO) that is already at 30W? If you trace the vorticity on 0z GFS, you can see that system - discussed in the other thread - consolidating at 37W by hour 72; while the wave in this thread emerges from Africa by hour 12, and consolidates at 23W by hour 78.
https://i.imgur.com/o8OBq8L.png
https://i.imgur.com/TxSoMXu.png

That's correct, the tropical wave in this thread is disturbance 2:

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday. Upper-level winds are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to
form in a few days while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

The tropical wave the GFS briefly strengthens in the MDR (this thread) is disturbance 3 and degenerates into an open wave while entering the Caribbean:

A broad area of low pressure appears to be be forming several
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are forecast to support further development of this
disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form around
midweek while it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Extratropical94]

A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa
later today. Upper-level winds are forecast to be conducive for
gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely
to form in a few days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

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