Tropical Wave emerging from the African Coast (Is Invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of
Africa by the end of the weekend. Thereafter, environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
this system as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far east
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[kevin]

It almost feels like the whole CV season has just been shifted by half a month. It's already been 2 weeks, but it feels like we're only at September 10 now.

[Category5Kaiju]

It almost feels like the whole CV season has just been shifted by half a month. It's already been 2 weeks, but it feels like we're only at September 10 now.

This season's true peak has definitely been shifted to later September. Well, I guess now that this has happened, in the future, when a season experiences a lackluster early September, we'll know that there may be more to the story later in the month.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of
Africa by the end of this weekend. Thereafter, environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
this system as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far east
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[CyclonicFury]

It almost feels like the whole CV season has just been shifted by half a month. It's already been 2 weeks, but it feels like we're only at September 10 now.

But at the same time, we had a hurricane in the MDR in early July twice in the last four seasons. Odd for sure

[bob rulz]

A preview of climate change extending the peak of the MDR season both earlier and later.

[Stormybajan]

A preview of climate change extending the peak of the MDR season both earlier and later.

Woah there. Lol I mean lets remember its still September with a week left

[aspen]

There continues to be strong model support for TS Teresa forming in the first half of next week, probably around Tuesday or Wednesday. All models try to weaken or recurve it, although I don’t get why they’re recurving it when there’s a ridge to the north with no weaknesses.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
the end of this weekend. Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system as
it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Extratropical94]

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
the end of this weekend. Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while the system
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
the end of this weekend. Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while the system
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
the end of this weekend. Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while the system
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
early next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while the system
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
early Monday. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while the system moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[aspen]

Both the 06z GFS and HWRF-P make this a moderate Cat 1 hurricane in 5-6 days, but the GFS weakens it quickly afterwards. It’s at quite a low latitude and would be over 29-30C SSTs, so assuming Sam isn’t shearing it with outflow, a hurricane is indeed possible IMO.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
early Monday. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while the system moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[bob rulz]

Woah there. Lol I mean lets remember its still September with a week left

I stand by my statement. A cat 4 hurricane and two AOI in the MDR in late September is certainly unusual. Obviously things will vary season-to-season, but I think over time we will certainly see the Cape Verde season slowly extend a little bit at both ends.

[CyclonicFury]

The 00z UKMET makes this a hurricane south of 8°N. Would be unprecedented in the Atlantic.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 8.1N 14.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2021 36 8.1N 14.8W 1010 28
0000UTC 28.09.2021 48 8.0N 17.3W 1008 30
1200UTC 28.09.2021 60 7.6N 19.8W 1004 36
0000UTC 29.09.2021 72 7.5N 22.2W 1000 41
1200UTC 29.09.2021 84 7.5N 24.4W 985 62
0000UTC 30.09.2021 96 7.6N 25.8W 978 66
1200UTC 30.09.2021 108 8.2N 26.6W 978 68
0000UTC 01.10.2021 120 9.6N 27.9W 986 59
1200UTC 01.10.2021 132 10.8N 29.5W 991 56
0000UTC 02.10.2021 144 12.3N 31.1W 1000 44

[Extratropical94]

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
by midweek while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
by midweek while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.