Broad area of low pressure to form over the eastern tropical Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[wxman57]

I'm not concerned about this one. As for 90L, it should hit a wall of shear before reaching the Caribbean.

[MetroMike]

I'm not concerned about this one. As for 90L, it should hit a wall of shear before reaching the Caribbean.

Ok as for me I should not waste my time with this potential whatever.

[Teban54]

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for further development of this disturbance, and a
tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS makes this a hurricane. It will be interesting to know when was the last hurricane by date to form in MDR on late September or early October.

[aspen]

Looks like this will be the precursor to the WCar storm on some of the GFS runs and GEFS ensembles, even if it does become strong in the MDR first. I’m guessing it would keep its name if it does get into the WCar and develop after being named in the MDR.

[AutoPenalti]

Very reminiscent of Harvey.

[SFLcane]

Looks like this will be the precursor to the WCar storm on some of the GFS runs and GEFS ensembles, even if it does become strong in the MDR first. I’m guessing it would keep its name if it does get into the WCar and develop after being named in the MDR.

Gfs op has all but abandoned that western Caribbean tc idea.

[emeraldislenc]

I know Hurricane Hazel formed east of the islands in October of 1954. It hit the Carolinas after moving through Haiti. It was a cat 4 storm when it hit the Carolinas. It was before the Satellite era and from what I have read it could have come across the Atlantic all the way as a wave from Africa. Everyone in our area who remembers Hazel realizes the total devastation along the Carolinas coast and then through central NC all the way up to Canada. Hazel was a once in a life time storm.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely
to form in a few of days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next day or two while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[abajan]

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next day or two while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

They're taking awfully long to update the graphical outlook page.
It's stuck at the 2 p.m. version.

[cycloneye]

Invest 91L is up